Who has the advantage in Maple Leafs playoff matchup vs. Boston Bruins

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Let’s get to Game 1 between the Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins already. 

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As the seconds tick by until puck drop on Saturday at 8 p.m. at the TD Garden in Boston, we delve into the specifics of the best-of-seven, first-round matchup between the Original Six rivals in the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. 

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GOALTENDING

There’s little to differentiate between the Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, to the point that coach Jim Montgomery on Friday didn’t reveal his starter for Game 1. Montgomery could go either way and be confident that he’s going to get sound netminding.

Both Swayman and Ullmark finished in the top 10 in the NHL in goals saved above expected and both were in the top 10 in save percentage.

Ilya Samsonov’s rebound in the second half of the season can’t be underestimated and it’s his responsibility now to carry that into the playoffs.

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One potential area of concern for the Leafs is that if Samsonov falters, Joseph Woll was not great after returning from a high ankle sprain. In 10 games starting on Feb. 29, Woll was 4-6-0 with an .890 save percentage.

With that in mind, we’ll be curious to see what kind of length there is for the leash on Samsonov. As for Martin Jones, he probably only gets in as a last resort.

The edge: Bruins

DEFENCE

The Leafs’ defence-by-committee approach isn’t what you would call a confidence-building recipe for success in the playoffs, but at least Toronto isn’t kidding itself: This is what it has.

Morgan Rielly in recent years has played his best hockey in the playoffs and he’s going to need to do that again with Ilya Lyubushkin by his side.

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The Leafs bring more of a physical edge than they have before and each of Joel Edmundson, Simon Benoit and Jake McCabe can be a factor in that regard.

But don’t think the Bruins will be intimidated. Their playoff battle scars outweigh those of the Leafs.

The Bruins top four of Hampus Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo help set the tone for a club that is big on structure and was fifth during the regular season in goals-against at 2.70 a game. By comparison, the Leafs were 21st at 3.18 goals-against a game. 

The Bruins haven’t had the sort of defensive-zone issues that have been a thorn for the Leafs at times.

The edge: Bruins

FORWARDS

Subtract each team’s No. 1 superstar — the Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews and the Bruins’ David Pastrnak — and take a look at what’s left.

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The Bruins are deep, but they don’t have anyone at the talent level at which Mitch Marner and William Nylander reside for the Leafs. 

The team’s respective captains, John Tavares and Brad Marchand, have something in common: Both are on the downside in their careers in terms of production, but both still possess the game-breaking ability that can make a difference in what should be a tight series.

Certainly, there is something to be said about Tavares’ prowess in the faceoff circle. He was second in the NHL in winning percentage at 59.3%, behind only San Jose’s Nico Sturm at 60.1%.

The Bruins took a hit up the middle last off-season when Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired. Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are good centres, but they don’t provide the same kind of challenge to the Leafs that Bergeron and Krejci did in the past.

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There’s good scoring depth in Boston with Jake DeBrusk, Trent Frederic and Morgan Geekie.

For the Leafs, this is the time for Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi to shine. Calle Jarnkrok should be ready to go after recovering from a broken hand, while Matthew Knies and Nick Robertson will be looking to make a mark. Bobby McMann, once he is healthy, can make an impact as well.

Back to Matthews and Pastrnak. Each has the power to take over the series. Which one will emerge in that regard?

The edge: Maple Leafs

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Leafs finished seventh in the league on the power play at 24%, but that’s a bit misleading. 

From March 1 until the conclusion of the season, the Leafs scored just nine power-play goals on 72 chances for a 12.5% success rate, putting them at 29th in the NHL in that span.

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During the same period, the Bruins (who were 14th at season’s end with a man advantage) also struggled, hitting on 17.9% of their chances for a rank of 24th.

The Leafs haven’t been able to get it right on the penalty kill all season; of the teams that made the playoffs, only the New York Islanders, who were last in the NHL at 71.5%, were worse than Toronto’s 76.9% clip (23rd). Boston was seventh on the kill at 82.5%.

The edge: Bruins, though it might be negligible. Matthews had a career-high 18 power-play goals to lead the Leafs. Pastrnak led the Bruins with 12.

COACHING

Montgomery’s Bruins play with the kind of structure and unruffled manner that many other NHL teams envy.

The Leafs aren’t on the same level as Boston in that regard, but Sheldon Keefe gets a good measure of respect for guiding his team to another 100-point season despite a raft of injuries, especially on the blue line.

In the end, the players will decide this series.

The edge: Even

Prediction: Bruins in 7.

In goaltending and defence, which often win the day in the post-season, Boston has the advantage.

Though the Leafs have been sharp on the road this season, if it comes down to a seventh game, the Bruins should get a leg up in playing at home.

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X: @koshtorontosun

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