Adjusted net profit for the March quarter is likely to fall over 30% year-on-year, while revenues are seen falling up to 12% year-on-year.
During the quarter under review, the company had already reported Alumina production of 484 kt at Lanjigarh refinery, up 18% year-on-year, driven by better operational performance. The cast metal aluminium production at the smelters also rose 4% year-on-year to 598 kt.
Vedanta clocked mined metal production at 299 kt, up 11% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a mix of improved mined metal grades and higher ore production across mines.
Saleable silver production stood at 189 kt, up 4% year-on-year on account of WIP depletion in the current quarter.
Some of the key monitorables in the earnings card include management update on parent debt situation, guidance on future dividend payout, comments on the demerger status and the guidance on volumes and CoP across verticals.Here’s what to expect from Vedanta’s Q4:
Nuvama
Vedanta is expected to report an EBITDA uptick of 2% quarter-on-quarter driven by higher volume in zinc, offset marginally by prices and lower CoP in aluminium. Aluminium is expected to report an EBITDA uptick of 2.5% QoQ . Zinc international is expected to report a normal EBITDA (2x QoQ due to low base).
Kotak Equities
We forecast a 9.4% year-on-year decrease in EBITDA (-0.8% qoq) due to weaker commodity prices across major segments, particularly in zinc.
We forecast (1) aluminum EBITDA to marginally increase qoq by 0.2% (+49% yoy) primarily led by lower costs, (2) oil and gas division to witness EBITDA decline of 4.5% qoq on lower volumes and (3) Zinc India division to see 0.6% qoq decrease in EBITDA on the back of lower zinc prices, partially offset by improved volumes.
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