THE SCOUTS’ VIEW: Leafs, Bruins should be tight, seven-game series

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The time for Auston Matthews is now. 

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Think of the extraordinary 69-goal season just completed by the Maple Leafs superstar as the first step to what potentially could come next in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

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In conversation with a couple of National Hockey League scouts on Thursday — two veterans who include the Leafs in their particular areas of concentration in NHL opponents — one view was that Matthews and the Leafs’ other star forwards could provide a tipping point for Toronto in the best-of-seven first round against the Boston Bruins.

The series gets underway with Game 1 on Saturday at 8 p.m.

Both scouts spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“I think Matthews will step it up to another level,” one of the scouts said. “He has taken over this team a bit. For me, he’s the guy who can do it as far as shutting down (opposing forwards), playing both ends, scoring the goals, taking over a game when he needs to, whether it’s in his end, eliminating guys. 

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“I think he is ready for it this year.”

Sure, there is pressure on the Leafs’ trio of Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander to lead Toronto beyond the first round and build off advancing to the second round a year ago, when the Leafs’ 2023 Cup dreams died quickly in a five-game loss against the Florida Panthers. 

Of course, some motivation for the Bruins would be rooted in getting it right after Florida upset Boston in the first round last spring. 

“Without a doubt, and there’s a new identity there,” one scout said.

“For years, it was (Patrice) Bergeron’s team, rightfully so, and I think some guys want to say this is their team now, (Brad) Marchand, (David) Pastrnak, (Charlie) Coyle.”

Neither scout put much stock in the role that the history between the clubs in the playoffs could play, considering that the differences in the teams since they previously met in the playoffs, in the first round in 2019, are many. Just five Leafs who were on the ice for that Game 7 loss in Boston on April 23 five years ago — Matthews, Marner, Nylander, captain John Tavares and defenceman Morgan Rielly — remain. The Bruins have eight players who skated in that game, including Pastrnak and Marchand, now Boston’s captain.

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“They’ve got whiskers on their face now,” one of the scouts said, referring to Matthews, Marner and Nylander. “They’re much more experienced, much more prepared. For the Leafs, their strength is their special players up front.”

Will the Bruins have an edge in net with the goaltending tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, or does the second-half resurgence of Ilya Samsonov for Toronto provide an adequate counter for what could happen in the Boston crease?

“It depends on how much the last couple of weeks affect Samsonov,” one of the scouts said, noting the goalie’s hiccups in his last few games. “I was so impressed the way he battled back from what was going on in November and December. Not many guys come back from that, especially a goaltender with that confidence issue.

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“The big saves are going to happen. These guys are NHL goalies.

“The goalies on both sides have to be solid — no weak goals, no deflating goal when you’re down 2-1 or up 2-1.

“That is the biggest part for the guy who is going to make a difference. I think the games are going to be extremely close, that one shot can change the outcome.”

If Matthews and his offensive cohorts are going to have success, it will mean the Leafs will have constructed a way to penetrate a Bruins defence that collectively was one of top outfits during the regular season. Boston allowed 135 goals at five-on-five, fourth-fewest in the NHL before final games were played on Thursday. The Leafs were 19th in that category, allowing 168 goals at five-on-five.

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“Boston’s strength is their commitment to team defence,” a scout said. “And their goalies have proven they are as good as anybody.”

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As for the Leafs’ defence corps, one that, as general manager Brad Treliving has said himself, is doing it by committee? It might not be the negative issue that some perceive it to be.

The physical nature of Joel Edmundson, Simon Benoit, Jake McCabe and Ilya Lyubushkin may out-weigh shortcomings. 

“You’re going to get away with a little more in the playoffs,” one scout said. “The physicality and their ability to lean into bodies and push wide, I don’t mind those guys. They’re just all going to have to be at their best.”

Said the other scout: “Edmundson is going to be a factor with some of the physical play and standards he sets. He’s built for playoff hockey.”

One area of agreement: Neither scout sees the series ending in four or five games.

“It’s 50-50 as to who wins,” one scout said. “Both teams have the kind of depth that will allow them to make changes if they see fit.

“I’ll be shocked if it doesn’t go six or seven games.”

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