stock market | Bullish phase will continue, but some decline is possible after 15% jump

Mumbai. Enthused by the Indian economy growing more than expected, a new phase of boom has started in the Indian stock market due to the increasing investment of domestic and foreign investors. The first fall in February-March and then the sharp recovery has now turned into a new bull run. Because of this, the market has started touching new heights. In the last three-and-a-half months, the main benchmark Sensex-Nifty has seen a jump of 15%, while the Midcap and Smallcap index showing the broad trend of the market has seen a strong rise of 24 to 27%. registered, but the boom can never be one-sided. There is bound to be a slight downside in the market due to profit booking at higher prices. The same happened last Friday. When all four major indices were down about 1 per cent after hitting new highs. After reaching a new high of 65,899, the Sensex fell to 65,280. Similar was the case with Nifty, Midcap and Smallcap. Global markets have also declined in the last two days. The reason for this is the possibility of an increase in interest rates again in the US. Because of this, a question has arisen among common investors whether the bull run will continue or will there be a further decline? Experts say that the biggest growth (more than 7%) among the big countries of the world is coming in India only. All other factors are also positive. That is why Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) have made the highest net investment of $12 billion in India in 2023, which is continuing. Due to this, the bull run is expected to continue with a slight fall in the market. If the situation improves further, the Sensex can reach 73,000 points and the Nifty can reach 22,000 points with ups and downs in this phase of boom. Which rallied from lower levels March 20, 2023 July 7, 2023 Gains Sensex 57,084 65,280 pts +15% Nifty 16,828 19,332 pts +15% Midcap 23,387 28,999 pts +24% Smallcap 26,128 33,129 pts +27% can reach 22,000 points Nifty: Taher Badshah Taher Badshah, Chief Investment Officer of Invesco Mutual Fund, says that interest rates in the US may rise again, but the possibility of further increase in interest rates in India is negligible, However, reduction may take time. In India, the concern related to economic growth, inflation and monsoon, all three have gone away. Along with this, crude oil and other commodity prices are also under control. This year, due to lower than expected growth in China and higher than expected growth in India, foreign investors ie FII have turned towards India. That’s why FII made a record investment of $15 billion in the last two months. If we look at the average of 10 years, FIIs invest about $ 15 billion annually. Their investment is expected to continue in the coming months as well. The important fact is that despite the new high of the market, India’s valuation is not expensive. If we look at the FY2024 earnings, Nifty is at PE ratio of 19 only. While looking at the estimated earnings of 2025, the EPS of Nifty can come to Rs 1100. Accordingly, in the next 12 to 18 months, Nifty can reach 22,000 points with ups and downs. Barring the uncertainty of the outcome of the general elections in India, almost all other factors are positive. Read this also, there is a possibility of increasing interest rates in the US again: Alok Ranjan IDBI Mutual Fund’s Chief Investment Officer (Alok Ranjan) says that the fundamentals of the Indian economy are very strong. Therefore, the bull run is expected to continue in the market, but after such a long run during the last few months, some technical correction is possible. Investors should keep in mind that money is not always made in the market. That is, the speed cannot remain constant. Due to one reason or the other there is a decline and it is also necessary. Only then new investment opportunities are available. Now there is a possibility of increasing the interest rates again in the US. Due to which there was a decline in the Global Market for the last two days. Its effect happened here on Friday as well. The inflation rate in the US has come down, but is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s expectation. Therefore, in its July 19 meeting, the Federal Reserve can increase the interest rate by 25 basis points (BPS). After this, there is a possibility of an increase of 25 basis points in the next meeting as well. Due to this, there may be a brake on the rise in the global market. However, there is no possibility of much decline in India. If there is a fall of 3 to 5 percent then it will be a healthy correction and will provide investment opportunities. Now the eyes of investors are on the results of the first quarter: Prashant Tapse Prashanth Tapse, Research Head of Mehta Equities Ltd., says that there is no possibility of much decline in the Indian market, but the Sensex-Nifty After reaching new heights, there is not much upside visible at the moment. Profit booking will definitely happen at higher prices. Secondly, the global markets are coming under pressure due to the news of increasing interest rates in the US. Due to which there may be some decline in India as well, although it will not be much because foreign investors are investing heavily here, attracted by the India Growth Story, but now investors are waiting for the results of the first quarter of Corporate India. (Q1 Results) are awaited. If the results are good, then definitely the boom will continue. Apart from this, if the monsoon is good throughout the country in July, then inflation will remain under control. Investors are also eyeing this. Talking about high growth sectors, we are positive on Auto, Auto Ancillary, Private Bank, Railway, Defence, Capital Goods, Real Estate and Midcap IT and are expecting good results. While there is a concern of growth in chemical, steel, infra, large IT. Top Picks: Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Aeronautics, Cummins India, IndusInd Bank, Rail Vikas Nigam, IRFC, Titagarh Rail, Usha Martin, Lodha Developers, Oberoi Realty.