Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential aspirations have flummoxed Democrats and Republicans alike.
A noted anti-vaxxer and son of Democratic scion, the late Bobby Kennedy, his independent run for the White House has frustrated his family and confused kingmakers on both sides.
Now, to the chagrin and delight of many, his candidacy has gone from afterthought to potential spoiler.
Recently, the Michigan Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, announced the presidential aspirant secured a place on the ballot in the key battleground state. How his candidacy will shape the state and ultimately the race is anyone’s guess.
Now, with a deep-pocketed running mate by his side and a spot on the ballot in one of the most consequential states of this election, RFK Jr. has become one of the biggest indecipherable variables in an election already brimming with many.
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., right, waves on stage with Nicole Shanahan, after announcing her as his running mate, during a campaign event, Tuesday, March 26, 2024, in Oakland, Calif. (Eric Risberg / AP Photo)
The “Wolverine State” has become integral to any candidate seeking to secure the White House. Michigan has sided with the presidential winner in nine of the 11 White House contests dating back to 1980.
The Biden-Harris campaign is leaving nothing to chance, opening 30 field offices throughout the state by the end of April. Victory in 2024 will undoubtedly go through Michigan and now that RFK Jr. will be vying for the state as well, a win for both the incumbent and the GOP nominee, just became more perilous.
Underscoring that peril are the glaring weaknesses within the bases of both Biden and Trump. Yet, the question that looms large is: does RFK Jr.’s spot on the ballot create an off-ramp for disaffected Biden voters; Trump voters; or both?
Findings in the latest NBC News National poll show RFK Jr. actually cutting more into Donald Trump’s support than President Biden’s. In a national head-to-head match-up, Trump leads Biden by two percentage points, 46%-44%.
Supporters of presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gather during a campaign event, March 26, 2024, in Oakland, Calif. (Eric Risberg / AP Photo)
Yet, when other third-party candidates are included, specifically RFK Jr., Biden takes a two percentage point advantage over the more crowded field. However, a Wall Street Journal poll released earlier this month found Kennedy polling at 12% among Michigan voters with Donald Trump at 39% and Biden at 37%.
In 2020 and 2016, the state was decided by less than 1%. Alas, Kennedy’s surprise entry on the ballot could make for an even tighter margin in such a closely contested race.
The Biden-Harris campaign is hoping its massive investment, across the state, will overtake Trump’s lead in the polls despite RFK Jr.’s presence on the ballot. Still, it’s the Democratic Party, not the RNC, that is showing deep anxiety about Kennedy’s presence at least in Michigan.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission surrounding efforts by the Kennedy affiliated super PAC, American Values 2024. The DNC has raised questions regarding the PAC’s signature gathering efforts to secure Kennedy a spot on the ballot in Michigan.
How viable is RFK Jr. as a national candidate?
To date, Kennedy is only on the ballot in Michigan and Utah. However, his campaign said it has collected enough signatures to appear on the ballot in New Hampshire, Hawaii, Nebraska, Idaho, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada.
Three of those states — New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada — will be integral in determining the outcome in a race that is expected to finish with a razor-thin margin. Still, it remains unclear if the Kennedy campaign will be on the ballot in any of those states. Even more questionable is the viability of Robert Kennedy Jr. as a national candidate.
However, considering the persistent high unfavorables weighing down Biden and Trump, a third-party candidate with resources and name I.D. could be just enough to sink the candidacy of one of the major party nominees.
Now, with a name emblematic of American political royalty and talking points mirroring the conservative playbook, Kennedy is the unicorn unifying equal parts polarization and angst on both sides of the political spectrum. Nevertheless, in a race highlighted by the electorate’s deep unhappiness with the major party choices, RFK Jr. has become the perfect vessel for voters to express their dissatisfaction and angst for the choices before them.
The recent primaries in Pennsylvania showed both frontrunners winning handily, all the while displaying gulf-wide cracks in their respective bases. Former Trump rival Nikki Haley, who suspended her presidential campaign more than a month ago, garnered nearly 150,000 votes. A stark reminder of Trump’s nagging inability to unify the base of the party behind his presidential run.
Meanwhile, Muslim and Arab-American voters continue to galvanize “uncommitted” votes against Biden-Harris in dogged protest to his handling of the war in Gaza.
Sen. John F. Kennedy waves from plane ramp as he and members of his travelling party get set to board plane bound for Massachusetts on July 17, 1960 in Los Angeles. With the Senator are his brother, Bob, left, and Bob’s wife Ethel; his niece and nephews: middle row, left to right are Bobby Shriver, Bobby Kennedy and Kathleen Kennedy; front: Joe Kennedy, left, and David Kennedy, right (AP Photo)
RFK Jr., with both democratic and conservative bona fides, has become the ideal avatar to swing the most consequential presidential election of the 21st century. Already his entry on the ballot in one battleground state is registering seismic shifts but, ironically, is still seen as largely enigmatic nationally.
Should the war in Gaza continue to spiral, the protest vote underpinning President Biden’s weakness could go from mere demonstration to mass exodus. Moreover, a Trump guilty verdict in any of his pending criminal cases could brand the maniacal ex-president with a scarlet letter that repels rank and file members from the Republican Party.
Though a largely imperfect candidate and an unknown quantity, Kennedy could become the perfect salve for anxious and distressed voters hastening for the exits of their respective political parties.
Though it remains unclear just how much damage Kennedy inflicts on either side, what is clear is both sides undoubtedly recognize the potential threat.
Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.