Padres’ ‘revamp’ makes for an interesting case study for Blue Jays

SAN DIEGO — The San Diego Padres faced a daunting task during the off-season after a disappointing 82-80 finish in 2023. First, they needed to backfill for a free-agent class that included Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, All-Star closer Josh Hader and reliable starter Seth Lugo. Then, they decided to trade generational talent Juan Soto, after paying such a high price to get him from the Washington Nationals two summers ago, ahead of his $31-million walk year. And then they had to remain competitive in the suddenly deep National League West, all while cutting payroll.

“We’ve had some really talented rosters the last few years,” says general manager A.J. Preller. “But you always have to be able to adjust and adapt.”

Adjust and adapt he did, and the way the relentless Preller cleverly remade his roster offers an interesting case study for the Toronto Blue Jays, who with 17 players eligible for free agency over the next two winters, will soon be contemplating similarly difficult choices.

No move the Padres made was bigger than the deal that sent Soto and centre-fielder Trent Grisham to the New York Yankees for right-handers Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito, plus catcher Kyle Higashioka. But in bookending that blockbuster with a late-spring stunner — using Thorpe as the centre-piece of a package sent to the Chicago White Sox for Dylan Cease — Preller demonstrated how creatively he operated on parallel tracks simultaneously.

“This was more like a revamp or a reload,” Preller explains during an interview. “Two years ago we went to the NLCS without Fernando Tatis Jr. and without Xander Bogaerts. Soto was obviously a part of that team. But in ’20, we won a playoff series, as well. So there are different ways to do it and the guys here understand that. There’s a really good talent base even without Soto or Hader or Snell.”

Now, it’s hard to argue that a team is better off without players of that calibre. But in turning Soto into four inexpensive arms, highlighted by the dominant King, with extended periods of control, the Padres restocked their pitching staff and extended their window while paring down their luxury tax payroll of roughly $280 million to about $226 million, per FanGraphs.

With Tatis, Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim already in place, the Padres had enough offence remaining to still be productive despite Soto’s loss. And the graduations of prospects Jackson Merrill and just-promoted Graham Pauley may potentially lengthen the lineup while providing some needed payroll efficiency.

Still, key to the entire reallocation of assets was getting a strong return for Soto and right now, it looks like the Padres did. King joins Cease, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish to form a strong rotation. Vasquez stepped in to cover a start Saturday while Darvish deals with neck tightness. Brito is pitching in the Padres bullpen while Thorpe helped begat Cease.

Preller said the Padres weren’t necessarily looking for so much near-term help for Soto and didn’t have specific targets for a return in mind. Still, some teams who pursued the superstar, like the Blue Jays, felt once King was on the table there was no beating the Yankees.

The Padres’ general approach to such deals is “getting the most talent you can get overall and worrying about how the pieces fit a little bit after that.” With certain teams, “the focus would have been on maybe one elite-level prospect or somebody like that,” rather than the broader package they ended up with.

“With the Yankees deal, we felt like we got some real quality and some quantity,” says Preller. “King was obviously a real piece of the deal but each one of those guys had real value for us. If you’re going to replace Juan Soto, you’ve got to do it on a lot of different fronts. Hopefully that deal on the pitching side and (Higashioka) from a defensive side can make us a better team this year.”

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Reallocating expiring assets is one approach available to the Blue Jays as they face two straight falls with potential for major talent drains, beginning with Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Trevor Richards and Daniel Vogelbach this November. And if they aren’t signed to contract extensions, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano headline a group of 10 players eligible for free agency after the 2025 season.

That’s 65 per cent of the roster coming due, a pivot point requiring some combination of re-signings, internal replacements, free-agent additions and trade acquisitions to extend the current competitive window. Players under contractual control beyond 2025 include Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Yariel Rodriguez, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson.

So major decisions are coming and the Blue Jays will have to pick a lane, just the way the Padres did.

Preller exhausted the opportunity to win with Snell, Hader, Lugo and others through 2023 before letting them walk. He then turned one year of Soto into two seasons of King, six seasons of Vasquez and Brito and one season of Higashioka. And finally he reallocated some of the money that freed up and some of the prospect depth that helped build to trade for two seasons of Cease, while also signing secondary contributors like lefties Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui and promoting from within.

“It really just comes down to having talented players with good makeup,” says Preller. “When you have that both for yourself in bringing guys through the system or getting guys to the big-league level, that plays. Or it gives you options and possibilities. When we decided to make the deal (for Cease) at the end of spring training, it wasn’t easy moving Drew Thorpe. We think he’s going to be a really good big-league pitcher. But we also understand Dylan Cease is one of the better pitchers in the league and for the next couple of years, maybe longer, is going to help us here. So at least you have that flexibility and those options to make those calls.”

The types of calls on the horizon for the Blue Jays.

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