There’s a lot that one could say heading into the 123rd edition of the French Open, but on the ground in Paris, there’s really only one thing on everyone’s mind: Is this the last major for the legendary Rafael Nadal, the master of clay and winner of 14 French Opens among his 22 Grand Slam titles? With a spate of recent injuries and a somewhat shaky comeback in recent weeks, it seems that may be the case. And the fact that (bad) luck gave (unseeded) Nadal the surging fourth seed, Alexander Zverev (who’s been killing it on clay lately), in the first round at Roland Garros? “Let’s be honest—neither of them wanted that,” Nicolás Jarry (himself a recently minted champion on the clay courts of Rome) told me at a private event on Friday held by Wilson, his sponsor, at the Tennis Club de Paris. “That’s going to be tough.”
Indeed—both tough that the luck of the draw turned out this way and tough to see Nadal winning. Expect an emotional battle royale no matter what happens, and remember that Nadal’s superpower has always been an almost nuclear ability to will himself to not lose a match—no matter the odds or the score.
Beyond that, the usual top of the men’s field is a bit of a bruised-and-battered situation, with third-seeded Carlos Alcaraz and second-seeded Jannik Sinner—who appear to be reaching cruising altitude on what may be the most compelling new rivalry in the men’s game—each on their way back from injuries. Both would seem to be recovered now, but a two-week major sometimes has ways of testing that. Sinner’s first real test will likely come in the fourth round, against Jarry, where Alcaraz could also face American Ben Shelton.
Who are we leaving out? Just the top-seeded player, Novak Djokovic, looking to extend his record of 24 majors. And while Djokovic’s own injury issues are apparently behind him, he hasn’t exactly lit up the clay court season thus far. If Nadal can will himself past Zverev, there’s a decent chance he could square off against Djokovic in the semis, which I think is what we’re all hoping for.
Who isn’t injured, in something of a slump, or on the verge of retirement? Most of the women’s field this year, which is exceptionally strong—and comes with a strong favorite.