The revenue growth projections are excluding Tata Motors, it said.
Segment wise, the report said, the domestic two-wheeler industry’s volumes are likely to have improved by around 10 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) in Q1, primarily on account of continued and healthy demand from the urban/premium segment.
However, the two-wheeler exports remained weak on a year-on-year basis while sequential improvement was recorded for larger volume players, it said.
The overall revenue is expected to grow at 24 per cent, 19 per cent and 16 per cent amid volume growth of 10 per cent, 5 per cent and 21 per cent for Bajaj Auto, TVS Motors and Eicher Motor-Royal Enfield, respectively, Emkay Global said.
It also said that the revenue growth for Honda Motorcycle is expected at 6 per cent, amid a volume decline of 3 per cent. Continued price hikes would lend support to authorised service providers on a sequential basis, it said, adding, for Bajaj Auto, Emkay Global expects a 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline in authorised service providers, given a lower share of three-wheelers during the quarter. The domestic passenger vehicle industry’s volumes is expected to have grown by around 8 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter amid a ramp-up in production and continuing interest in SUVs, as per the report.
The expectation is nearly 17 per cent revenue growth for market leader Maruti Suzuki, backed by 6 per cent higher volumes while Mahindra & Mahindra’s auto division is expected to post around 33 per cent revenue growth (overall growth of 24 per cent), driven by 21 per cent higher volumes.
For Maruti Suzuki, the brokerage house expects continued margin improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis (despite 3 per cent lower volumes) on account of ongoing improvement in the product mix and price hikes, it said.
The domestic commercial vehicle industry’s volumes declined by around 5 per cent YoY, the report said.
But the sequential decline was placed much higher at around 23 per cent due to usual seasonality and some preponement of demand in the last quarter of the previous fiscal because of real driving emission/on-board diagnostic-2 norms coming into effect from April this year.
Among their coverage universe, Emkay Global expects a revenue jump of 9 per cent for Ashok Leyland (+4 per cent volumes) and 16 per cent for Eicher Motor-Volvo Eicher CV (+12 per cent volumes), it said.
According to the report, the domestic tractor industry’s volumes fell by around 2 per cent YoY on a high base and delayed monsoon in certain regions.
Emkay Global said it expects 11 per cent and 8 per cent revenue growth for Escorts and M&M, respectively.