The Conservatives are doomed to lose the election because voters will not forgive the behaviour of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, according to Britain’s top pollster.
Prof Sir John Curtice says Mr Johnson’s No 10 lockdown parties and Ms Truss’s economic catastrophe have made it impossible for Rishi Sunak to cling on to power.
The prime minister threw away his only hope of mending the electoral damage caused by Mr Johnson and Ms Truss by failing to condemn their conduct sufficiently strongly, says Sir John.
Mr Johnson and Ms Truss each ruined the reputation of the Tories, in power for 14 years, in the space of just weeks, he claims.
The Conservatives’ ratings fell six points in six weeks after the scandal of Mr Johnson’s Downing St lockdown parties was exposed, and another six points in the six weeks following the collapse of Ms Truss’ economic policies, says Sir John, professor of politics at Strathclyde University.
Asked if the Tories could reverse their slide in popularity ratings in time for the election this year, Sir John said: “The ships have probably sailed so long ago that it’s difficult for them now to do much about it.”
He explained: “If you look at the timeline as to why we are where we are now, there are two crucial events in about 12 weeks.”
The first calamitous six week period for the Tories was the revelations about lockdown parties in No 10; the second was the response to Truss’ chaotic short lived term in office.
The Conservatives’ opinion poll ratings slumped to 25 per cent after Truss was ousted and had barely moved, standing at approximately 24 per cent now.
Sir John said: “These are two things that the Conservative Party needed badly to distance themselves from.”
But it had failed to do so because Tory MPs, including Sunak, failed to vote en masse against Johnson when Parliament held a vote on whether he had lied to the Commons about the parties.
“Mr Sunak didn’t vote, and such progress as he’d made in the polls literally disappeared overnight,” Sir John told the Daily Telegraph.
“Equally, it’s only very recently that the Government has started to distance itself directly from Liz Truss.
“The problem the Government has is that basically once we start any debate about the economy, all the opposition has to say is ‘Liz Truss’, (and it is) end of argument.
The Conservatives could generally rely on support from voters worried about immigration, said Sir John.
However, he went on: “But if it’s compounded with concern about the economy, the ethics of Boris Johnson, the economy, Liz Truss, incompetence, then you’re going to go elsewhere.”
He said all the main party leaders suffered from a woeful lack of star quality.
“Rishi Sunak – unpopular, uncharismatic, can’t do the vision thing. Keir Starmer – boring, uncharismatic, can’t do the vision thing. Ed Davey – nice bloke, little impact, can’t do the vision thing. Humza Yousaf – nice bloke but has all sorts of political troubles… and can’t do the vision thing.”
Voters were “nothing like as enthusiastic” about Sir Keir’s Labour Party as they had been when Tony Blair’s Labour won power in 1997.
It meant that a hung parliament, where Labour won most Commons seats but not an overall majority could not be ruled out, said Sir John.
But the Conservatives would be wasting their time if they got rid of Sunak in an attempt t revive their fortunes.
Sir John said: “The idea of the Conservative Party dumping Mr Sunak… I mean, look, guys, do you really think that you’re going to persuade the electorate to vote for you by saying: ‘We’re terribly sorry. We’ve dumped three prime ministers who in the end didn’t prove to be very good. But could you please vote for us again, because we”ve now found you yet another fourth one?’
“It’s not going to work. The Conservatives are certainly for good or ill, for all practical purposes, stuck with Mr Sunak, limited as his options are.”