Bajaj Auto Q4 results preview: PAT likely to grow 29% YoY, revenue growth seen at 24%

Indian two-wheeler major Bajaj Auto is expected to report a net profit of Rs 1,606 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 which will be a 29.45% year-on-year jump over the profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,432.90 crore reported by the company in the year ago period, according to average estimated of four brokerages.

The revenue for the three-month period is expected to be around 11,063.30 crore according to the average estimates, up by 24.37% on the YoY basis.

The gains in PAT and revenue will be on account of higher sales volume on the YoY basis, richer product mix and commodity tailwinds.

The company will announce its quarterly earnings on April 18, Thursday.

Here’s what brokerages recommend:


Nomura expects Q4 revenue to increase 26% on a YoY basis at Rs 11,181.5 crore versus 8,904.70 crore reported in the year ago period. On the QoQ basis, the revenue will be down by 8%. The net profit for the said quarter will likely be Rs 906.70 up by 33% on a YoY basis while down by 7% on a sequential basis. EBITDA is seen to go up by 30% YoY to 2,235.30 crore versus 1,716.60 crore in Q4FY23. It will be lower by 8% on a sequential basis. The revenue growth will be led by 25% YoY increase in volumes, Nomura said while estimating EBITDA margins to remain stable on a QoQ basis at 20% aided by tailwinds from better mix (exports, 3W) to partly off-set by weak operating leverage and higher EV share. The margins will be up 71 bps on a YoY basis while down by 7 bps on a QoQ basis.

Axis Securities

Axis expects total revenues to increase by 25.5% YoY to Rs 11,172 crore while a decline of 7.8% on the QoQ basis. It sees profit after tax (PAT) increasing by 29.3% YoY to Rs 1,853 crore while declining by 9.3% on a sequential basis. The domestic brokerage sees revenue gains on the back of 24.2% YoY likely increase in volumes and increase in the average selling price (ASPs) on account of higher mix of the premium 2W segments expansion and price increases. Though, it will partly be off-set by lower 3W volumes in the mix.

Axis estimates Q4 volumes at 10,68,576 units, up by 24.2%from 8,60,271 units in Q4FY23. On a sequential basis the volumes are expected to come down by 11%.

Meanwhile, EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 36 bps YoY while declining by 40 bps on the QoQ basis. The YoY gains will be on richer product mix, commodity tailwinds and partly offset by negative operating leverage.

JM Financial

JM expects revenues to increase 25% YoY to Rs 11,101.20 crore led by strong volume growth. The two-wheeler company is expected to report 10,68,576 units which will be a 24.6% uptick on the YoY basis. However, the revenue will be 8.4% lower on the QoQ basis amid an 11% drop in sales volume from 12,00,997 units reported in Q3FY24.

PAT is expected to go up by 31.5% to Rs 1,884.60 crore versus Rs 1,432.90 crore reported in the year ago period.

EBITDA is likely to remain at Rs 2,230.20 crore, higher by 29.9% on a YoY basis versus Rs 1,716.60 crore. It is down sequentially by 8.2%.

JM said that it expects flattish ASP on YoY basis as the higher mix of the premium 2W and EV segments to be largely offset by the lower mix of the 3W segment. It also expects EBITDA margin to remain flat QoQ as we expect favourable product mix and moderating RM inflation to largely offset negative operating leverage.

CICI Securities

This brokerage pegs YoY revenue growth at 21% to Rs 10,798.50 crore while down by 11% on the QoQ basis. The adjusted PAT is estimated at Rs 1,783.50 crore, up by Rs 24% YoY and down by Rs 13% QoQ. ICICI has estimated 2,101.60 crore, higher by 22% YoY and down by 14% QoQ.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)


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