2024 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: Panthers vs. Lightning

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It’s a great time to be a hockey fan in Florida.

Not only does the first-round series between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning offer a pretty friendly commute, it also promises to pack a punch — when these rivals meet nowadays, it always does.

These clubs first clashed in the playoffs in 2021 with a fast, fun series that saw the defending champions best the Panthers in six and leave hockey fans everywhere clamouring for a seventh. The Lightning went on to win the Cup that year for the second straight season — but not without a few black-and-blue souvenirs from their Floridian foes to kick off the title defence.

The two sides met again in Round 2 a year later, though Tampa Bay swiftly solved Florida in four. Now, as they prepare for a third post-season meeting, there’s been a notable power shift between these two clubs. After three straight trips to the Cup Final and two rings to show for it, the Lightning were ousted from Round 1 by Toronto last spring while the Panthers made a thrilling run all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. That Cinderella run was no fluke — one year later, they’ve overcome season-opening injuries to major stars and fought their way to the top of the Atlantic Division thanks to a roster with no shortage of depth and a goalie who’s rediscovered his game.

There are plenty of similarities between these two clubs, from the steady scoring threat up and down the lineup to the staunch blue line that’s come up clutch offensively, too. Goaltending is a source of strength at both ends, and with two of the most thoughtful, respected head coaches patrolling either bench, we’re all set for some insightful post-game quotes, too.  

Long viewed as the Lightning’s kid brother, the Panthers hold the upper hand now, despite going 0-2 in series matchups against Tampa Bay.

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Broadcast schedule


Panthers Outlook: The post-season is a marathon, but for last year’s Florida Panthers it was an all-out sprint from start to finish, their Cinderella run from last-minute WC2 to Stanley Cup runners-up a thrilling display of grit and momentum best captured by the fearless Matthew Tkachuk.

After watching that unfold, it should surprise no one to see Florida atop the division (thanks in part to a little last-minute sprint, of course; they’re nothing if not on-brand) a year later, ready to build on last year’s incredible streak. And yet, it is a bit surprising, considering what they’ve overcome to get back to the post-season. The club opened the 2023-24 campaign short-handed as star defencemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour required extra recovery time after summer surgeries. Ekblad was forced to miss more time late in the season, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Carter Verhaeghe also banged up down the stretch. (Verhaeghe returned Tuesday and all three look good for Game 1.)

Despite already boasting one of the deepest rosters in the league, Florida brought in veteran sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, who’s looked great on the top line alongside assist specialist Aleksander Barkov and scoring leader Sam Reinhart, whose 57 goals on the season is second league-wide to only Auston Matthews’ 69.

Health, or a lack of it, is most likely the only thing that can take down this blue line, which also includes a revitalized Ekman-Larsson having his best season since his days starring in the desert. “Revitalized” is a word that best describes goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, too — the starter was excellent last post-season and has built on that momentum all year as he gears up for another.

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Lightning Outlook: There’s a reason the Lightning are back in the post-season for a sixth straight year, and his name is Nikita Kucherov. In a season that has so thoroughly spoiled hockey fans as the game’s biggest names have piled up points at historic rates, Kucherov’s MVP bid is a strong one. He leads his team in scoring by a whopping 54 points, and his 100 assists on the season (37 more than Victor Hedman’s second-ranked team total) put him in the history books.

Kucherov, now the proud owner of several franchise records, has factored into half of all Lightning goals this season.

The story of Kucherov’s season has shielded the team from showing some signs of slowing down. A season-ending injury to Mikhail Sergachev was a huge blow for the squad’s blue line, while franchise netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked mortal at times. Talk of Steven Stamkos’ future with the club will only grow louder as he barrels towards free agency. This post-season has the makings of a franchise-altering spring as we await what’s next for the former champs. Do they have another fight in them?

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ADVANCED STATS

(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)


REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS


Panthers X-Factor: What can you improve on a team that’s got everything? Yup, it’s special teams. While neither their power play nor penalty kill have presented major problem areas this year, a closer look reveals some recent struggles. Since March 1, Florida has scored on just 16.4 per cent of power-play opportunities — a far cry from Tampa Bay’s 27.4 per cent in that same time frame.

Against the Lightning’s top-rated penalty kill since March 1, that weakness could prove the difference between a first-round win and an early loss.

Lightning X-Factor: Bobrovsky taught opponents some valuable lessons last spring about what happens when a team runs into a hot goalie in the playoffs … but Vasilevskiy wrote the book.

But this season has brought some uncharacteristic performances for the netminder, whose goals-against average (2.90) and save percentage (.900) in 52 starts were both career lows. The 2021 Conn Smythe winner has a knack for shutting the door in series-clinching games, and should he regain that form against Florida, there’s no telling how far the Lightning might go.

POSSIBLE GAME 1 LINEUPS

Florida Panthers

Vladimir Tarasenko-Aleksander Barkov-Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe-Sam Bennett-Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen-Anton Lundell-Evan Rodrigues
Nick Cousins-Kevin Stenlund-Kyle Okposo

Gustav Forsling-Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola-Brandon Montour
Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Dmitry Kulikov

Sergei Bobrovsky
Anthony Stolarz

Tampa Bay Lightning

Anthony Duclair-Brayden Point-Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel-Anthony Cirelli-Steven Stamkos
Michael Eyssimont-Nick Paul-Mitchell Chaffee
Tanner Jeannot-Luke Glendening-Conor Sheary

Victory Hedman-Darren Raddysh
Nick Perbix-Erik Cernak
Haydn Fleury-Matt Dumba

Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johansson

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