Would it be best for Raptors to trade or keep ‘Shaq-ob’ Poeltl?

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Raptors centre Jakob Poeltl is on such a roll that maybe it’s time to start calling him Shaq-ob Poeltl.

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A stretch? Sure, but Poeltl has been on an all-time run over his last three games and was the chief reason the Raptors snapped a seven-game losing streak on Monday night. Poeltl scored 30 points, added 15 rebounds, plus a couple of blocks and steals in the 130-119 win. Another return of Pascal Siakam might have been the story heading in, but it was his close friend Poeltl that stole the show. Only five players — four of them NBA MVP award winners — have averaged 30 or more points, 15 or more rebounds on at least 70% shooting from the field over any three-game stretch since 1983-84. The best player on the planet, Nikola Jokic, did it in 2022, but before that you’d have to go back to Dwight Howard in 2007. O’Neal achieved the feat in both 1995 and 1993, David Robinson in 1991 and Charles Barkley did it three times (twice in 1990 and in 1986).

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Poeltl has been nothing short of a force. He had 35 and 12 on 16-for-19 shooting in Saturday’s tough overtime loss in Boston, and that left the head coach of the reigning champions raving about the centre. “He’s a bear down there,” Joe Mazzulla told reporters. “It’s one of those situations if you play one coverage, he’s going to shoot that, if you play a different one, he’s going to bury you on the glass. He puts teams in a bind. He’s a good player.”

Mazzulla added as he left the podium “Jakob Poeltl is one of the best guys in the league … you can’t guard him.”

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Poeltl has even made strides with his main weakness, free throw shooting. He’s up to 64.6% accuracy this season, a career-high on 3.2 attempts, the most he’s ever averaged. You still don’t want to give Poeltl the ball late in games, as the Raptors did in a recent loss, which head coach Darko Rajakovic later admitted was a mistake, but the Raptors can’t ask any more of him. Poeltl has done all this without a viable backup available either. Kelly Olynyk has been out the entire year, Bruno Fernando should be more of a third or fourth-string option (and is currently hurt as well), Chris Boucher and Jonathan Mogbo are more power forwards than they are centres and even Scottie Barnes, who has filled in admirably defensively at centre in the past, has been hurt too. Poeltl has had to play 38, 37 and 35 minutes over the three games and 138 over the previous four, the fourth-most minutes he’s played in a week over his career. He’s averaging 32.9 minutes a game for the season, well above the 26.4 and 27.2 minutes he averaged the previous two seasons after being re-acquired by the Raptors from San Antonio.

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Though some panned the trade, which sent a lightly protected first-round pick to San Antonio and a couple of second rounders, Raptors president Masai Ujiri said at the time and since that Poeltl is a top 10 centre in the NBA and was worth the cost. The pick was conveyed last June after landing eighth overall. The Spurs dealt the selection, Rob Dillingham, to Minnesota for a future first-round pick and the right to swap firsts in 2030.

Toronto had made the deal to finally shore up a major weakness — the lack of a solid starting centre which had held the franchise back for years following the departures of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. But it was too late. The Raptors fell in the play-in the first year, lost Fred VanVleet to free agency, were up and down before trading both Siakam and OG Anunoby last season, bottomed out down the stretch and have just three wins in 15 tries so far this year.

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Which begs the question: As great as Poeltl is playing and as valuable as he is to the team, is he even more valuable as a trade chip? Dealing him away is the surest route to better lottery odds. If he goes, the team will surely be much worse. The team scores 10.8 more points per 100 possessions with Poeltl on the floor than when he’s off, second-best on the team and he dominates the glass and guards the interior well.

Landing as high a pick as possible at the draft is the likeliest course to returning to relevance. The better player they get to surround Barnes and the rest of the young core, the higher the long-term ceiling becomes.

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Poeltl turned 29 last month, making him the fourth-oldest Raptor. He is signed for the next two seasons, but can opt out after next season if he feels like he can earn more by looking for a new long-term deal ahead of his 31st birthday rather than his 32nd. It can be argued that Poeltl’s age doesn’t fit with the team’s core. Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick and whoever lands in next summer’s lottery are all at least five years younger than Poeltl. Dick is only 20. And he could sign somewhere else after next season if he opts out in search of a stronger team or a bigger payday.

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Poetl was on successful Raptors teams early on, but was part of a rebuild in San Antonio and now upon his return. He has talked of wanting to win (but also of understanding the big picture here and the value of developing so that one day the wins will come).

Centres, even very good ones, don’t go for what they once did on the trade market and maybe Toronto would not be able to recoup a Top 10 pick for Poeltl should they decide to go that route, but maybe an intriguing prospect and a pick could be had? The front office will surely gauge the market ahead of February’s trade deadline and go from there. An off-season deal could also be an option.

@WolstatSun

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