What. Just. Happened? Making Sense Of Democrats’ Blowout Loss

Democrats across the country woke up in shock on Wednesday morning to a presidential election outcome as disappointing as it was indisputable. None of the complex what-if scenarios experts gamed out had come to pass. There was no split between the popular vote and the electoral college. There were no states with such narrow margins that a demagogue could cast doubt on the outcome. There would certainly be no dayslong wait for an outlying county to tally ballots needed to determine who got 270 electoral votes.

Instead, former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in an electoral college blowout that is set to upend American politics for years to come.

With some votes still being counted on Wednesday, Trump was up in North Carolina by more than 200,000 votes, in Pennsylvania by more than 150,000 votes, in Georgia by more than 100,000 votes, in Michigan by more than 80,000 votes, and in Wisconsin by about 30,000 votes. In Nevada and Arizona, where an official winner has not yet been declared, Trump’s leads are similarly substantial.

The distribution of Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania ― the biggest battleground state ― was especially illustrative. Trump improved on his 2020 performance in the city of Philadelphia, where Harris got less than 80% of the vote. He picked up the suburban Philadelphia bellwether of Bucks County, flipped small metropolitan areas like Erie County, and even won in Centre County, which is home to Penn State University and has not gone Republican in the presidential election since 2004.

Trump continued to build on his core support in Pennsylvania’s industrial towns, holding Harris to a 3-point win in Lackawanna County, which is home to Scranton. President Joe Biden, a Scranton native, had won Lackawanna by over eight points.

Nor was anger over a pro-Trump comic’s insult about Puerto Rico enough to help Harris in Northampton, Berks and Lehigh counties, which has some of the state’s largest Puerto Rican communities. Trump flipped Northampton ― home to the diverse cities of Bethlehem and Easton ― increased his win margin by three in Berks, and picked up two points in Lehigh while still losing it.

Finally, in blue states Harris carried, Trump made eye-popping inroads. Trump got about 47% of the vote in New Jersey after receiving 41% there in 2020. In New York, he reduced his loss margin from 23 points in 2020 to 11 points on Tuesday. And in Illinois, the third largest blue state after California and New York, he lost by eight points ― a major improvement over his 17-point defeat in 2020.

Here are three other takeaways about the scale of Republicans’ gains and how they did it.

The Trump line that most epitomized his campaign pitch was his reprise of the classic, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” But Trump’s win, and the salience of consumers’ inflation concerns in that outcome, suggest that he really meant to ask whether people felt better off about five years ago ― in late 2019 and early 2020 ― before the COVID-19 pandemic and the shutdowns associated with it wreaked havoc on the country’s economy and trust in public institutions. In February 2020 ― four years and nine months ago ― unemployment had dropped to 3.5% and the inflation rate was under 2%.

Of course, by the time Trump lost his reelection bid, the country was consumed by economic, political and civil unrest. But Americans’ views of presidents tend to improve once they’re out of office. Trump was no exception: As of July 2023, his approval rating rose five points from his time in office, according to Gallup.

Among the 31% of voters who cited the economy as the top issue affecting their vote, Trump won 79%, according to an NBC News exit poll. He also won 80% of voters who said their family’s financial situation is worse than it was four years ago, and 73% of voters who said inflation has been a “severe hardship,” per NBC News.

“Hopefully Trump gets it. I had a good experience last time,” said Anthony Alba, a Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, truck repair man who immigrated from Peru, clarifying that the “good experience” was economic.

Sergio Martinez, a Bethlehem warehouse worker, was debating whether to vote on Saturday, but was inclined to vote for Trump if he did. “He kept the country strong ― as far as economy wise, and again, kept the borders a little tighter,” Martinez said.

Even a Harris voter with whom HuffPost spoke remembered the pre-COVID-19 part of Trump’s presidency fondly. Holly Smelstoys, a Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, resident who works in payroll, voted for Trump in 2016 based on what she saw as his business acumen, before eventually growing disillusioned with his “unhinged” personal conduct.

“The United States is more like a company, so I kind of thought it would be better for somebody to run it that way,” she said. “Until he went insane, I actually thought he did pretty good.”

With high-profile surrogates and appearances on popular podcasts, Trump made a point of courting non-white voters, low-propensity voters, and young men ― categories that frequently overlap.

Notwithstanding some doubts about this strategy, preliminary data show Trump on track to get 45% of the Latino vote ― up from 32% in 2020, according to the NBC News exit poll, and more than any Republican presidential nominee since at least George W. Bush in 2004. Trump’s improvement among Black voters was more marginal, jumping from 12% to 13%, but he posted big gains with Black voters in Wisconsin, increasing his share of their vote from 8% to 20%, per NBC News.

Trump also improved his performance in Detroit, Michigan, which is predominantly Black, growing his vote share from 5% in 2020 to 8% in 2024.

In addition, Trump bested Harris among first-time voters 56% to 43%, compared with his 64% to 32% loss among the same demographic in 2020. And Trump fought Harris to a draw among voters under 30 ― a major improvement from his 24-point deficit among those voters in 2020.

Meanwhile, Harris performed relatively well with demographic groups that had been abandoning Democrats in previous election cycles. She got 32% of the white non-college vote ― the same share as Joe Biden in 2020. And Harris got 53% of union households, lower than Biden’s 56%, but higher than Hillary Clinton’s 51% share in 2016.

Republicans currently have a 52-seat majority in the Senate that could grow larger as votes continue to be tallied in Pennsylvania and Nevada. That ensures Trump the opportunity to select and confirm cabinet appointees and federal judges without Democratic interference.

More ominously for Democrats, it could be a while before the party gets a good shot of retaking the Senate. Aside from Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, there aren’t any obvious GOP targets for Democrats in 2026. And Democratic Sens. Gary Peters of Michigan and Jon Ossoff of Georgia will be on defense in swing states that Trump won in 2024.

The Senate map for Democrats in 2028 isn’t much more promising. Republican Sens. Tedd Budd of North Carolina and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin are the only incumbent Republicans up for reelection in swing states. And Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, and Mark Kelly of Arizona, will all be up for reelection in purple states.