(NewsNation) — After months of political buildup, the 2024 election has arrived in what has remained a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris throughout the presidential candidates’ respective campaigns.
How long the nation will have to wait for a presidential winner to be declared remains one of the biggest unanswered questions heading into Tuesday as well as which states could take the longest to report their results.
However, a few trends could emerge early on that could signal which way things are leaning and that could be worth watching in the hours after the polls close and results are released Tuesday night and the days after.
How do Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fare in the South?
Georgia and North Carolina are two swing states that will weigh heavily on the election’s final result. Yet, with polls closing in the Peach State at 7 p.m. ET and at 7:30 ET in the Tar Heel State, the two southern states could be among the early trendsetters for how the path to 270 Electoral College votes is mapped out.
Trump lost Georgia to President Joe Biden by 0.2% in 2020, which represented the narrowest margin of victory in the election. Drew McCoy, the president of NewsNation partner Decision Desk HQ, told NewsNation that Trump’s likeliest path to 270 includes him maintaining his 2020 election map but winning either Georgia or Pennsylvania.
Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.3% over Biden, but the state, like the six other swing states, has remained in the toss-up category heading into Tuesday’s election.
The New York Times reported that if Harris fares well in the two states, it takes less emphasis off of other swing regions, including the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where polls close later, including at 9 p.m. ET in Wisconsin. McCoy told NewsNation that if Harris claims both Georgia and North Carolina, it could dramatically alter Trump’s path to victory.
If Trump controls the two states, however, The New York Times reported that Harris still has a viable path to 270 but would likely have to wait longer for final results from respective states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, which could provide a delayed final outcome similar to 2020.
How voters turn out in specific areas of pivotal swing states
With Georgia remaining a key target for both Trump and Harris, specific parts of the state may be even more meaningful.
Atlanta’s northern suburbs, specifically Gwinnett and Cobb counties, could be a place to zero in on for some indication of who ends up winning the state, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.
Biden won Cobb County by 14 points in 2020, while Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock won the county by 16 points in 2022, the report indicated. But political strategist Fred Hicks told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that a 3% swing in either direction could mean between 9,000 and 12,000 votes in Tuesday’s election.
In Gwinnett County, Biden captured 60% of the vote in 2020 in what was for decades considered a GOP stronghold. However, voters in the county also represented the largest number of votes Trump received, according to the newspaper, making voter turnout critical in Tuesday’s election.
“If turnout is high there, we can get a sense of whether Harris can carry Georgia,” Democratic state Rep. Stacey Evans told the AJC.
Several counties in suburban Philadelphia could also provide clues as well. McCoy said that while Pennsylvania was the final state to be called in 2020, a change in when mail-in ballots can begin to be counted will likely speed up the state’s reporting process. The Associated Press reported that election officials can begin processing mail-in ballots for counting at 7 a.m. ET on Tuesday, but the results of those ballots cannot be released until after polls close at 8 p.m.
The suburban Philadelphia counties have started to move more Democratic in recent years, the AP reported. While rural voters have remained reliably Republican in statewide elections, Democrats have come to count on voter support around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
The AP projects that Erie and Northampton counties could be critical to watch as they were two of 10 Pennsylvania counties that went for Trump in 2016 but flipped to Biden in 2020, the AP reported.
McCoy told NewsNation on Monday that voter turnout, especially among Black and Hispanic voters, could help to determine who wins Pennsylvania. The same goes for voters in rural areas and whether those residents who have traditionally supported Trump turn out to vote, McCoy said.
Biden won the state’s 19 Electoral College votes in 2020 by 1.2% after Trump won the state by 0.7% in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton.
Are safe states really safe?
Trump and Harris both have states on their respective maps that show them with considerable leads in polls. However, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed Sunday that Harris had taken a 3-point advantage over Trump in the state. The poll came a month after Trump held a 4-point lead in October and after Trump held a commanding 18-point lead over Biden in June.
McCoy told NewsNation on Monday that while the Sunday poll sent shockwaves through the political world on Sunday, the poll — conducted by respected pollster J. Ann Selzer — remains an outlier in a state that forecasters didn’t have as competitive.
McCoy said that the poll seems to tap into a wider gender gap. McCoy said that Iowa has shifted more Republican in recent years after being considered a swing state.
McCoy said that despite Sunday’s shocking poll, Iowa has rarely been a bellwether state in the general election. However, he said that the results could put a bigger spotlight on issues like the gender gap and which areas of certain swing states Trump and Harris can do well in, and that could help determine the winner for the White House.