What a Labour government means for US, EU, China relations

British opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer attends a campaign event at a farm in Oxfordshire, Britain, July 1, 2024. 

Phil Noble | Reuters

LONDON — The incoming U.K. government will confront a complex international landscape after Britons head to the polls on July 4.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is widely expected to lead his party to victory, pledging to kick-start a “decade of national renewal,” following 14 years of rule under the Conservative Party.

But the center-left politician will also be seeking to redefine the U.K.’s international image in the wake of Brexit, a recent spat of domestic political and economic blunders, and a more fractured global landscape. CNBC takes a look at the foreign policy priorities for the incoming government.

Navigating U.S.-China trade tensions

High on the new government’s agenda will be maneuvering sensitive ties between global superpowers and geopolitical rivals, the U.S. and China.

Labour will be eager to maintain Britain’s so-called special relationship with its trans-Atlantic ally, presenting a united front in areas of shared strategic interest. But it will also need to adapt to a more protectionist and likely unpredictable U.S., particularly in the event of a change in leadership following the November presidential election stateside.

“You could imagine that the relationship between the incoming personalities of Keir Starmer and Donald Trump would be awkward,” David Dunn, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, told CNBC over the phone. “But they will work together.”

Britain is in a remarkably ambiguous position — as is the EU — dependent on China but also concerned about territorial acquisition and regional threats.

David Dunn

professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham

Repairing EU relations

Labour is also likely to foster a closer working relationship with the European Union.

Starmer, who campaigned for the Remain movement not to depart the bloc in the U.K.’s 2016 referendum, has said there is “no case” for rejoining the EU, including its single market and customs union. He has nevertheless pledged to improve the “botched” U.K.-EU deal, including in areas such as trade, research and security.

“There may be opportunities to revisit the core elements of the trading relationship – not immediately, but after the two sides have rebuilt trust and the relationship is working more smoothly,” Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, told CNBC by phone.

Protestors march with large flags during The National Rejoin March. Pro-EU groups demonstrated in central London, UK.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

The U.K.’s steadfast support for Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion has also helped soothe ties with EU neighbors, establishing its post-Brexit role in bolstering European security. This stance looks set to be upheld under a Labour government.

“This support has strengthened the U.K.’s conversation with EU countries about common risks, in turn opening up the chance for more constructive discussion of post-Brexit relations,” Chatham House’s Maddox and O’Sullivan said.

Improving national security

The U.K. should play a consistent role on global issues … particularly on climate change, international development, arms control.

Bronwen Maddox and Olivia O’Sullivan

directors at Chatham House

Given the current geopolitical landscape, however, Chatham House advised this defense expenditure should be raised to a minimum of 3%.

Starmer has also said that Labour will “maintain an unshakeable commitment to NATO and our nuclear deterrent, and put a renewed focus on improving morale in our armed forces.” However, discussions over the future shape the trans-Atlantic military alliance are likely to continue into the next U.S. administration.

Strengthening international order

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