Week 9 NFL Picks | Toronto Sun

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MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-5) at BUFFALO BILLS (6-2)

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LINE: Buffalo by 6

The Bills had Tua Tagovailoa discombobulated – and behind by what turned out to be a final score of 31-10 – even before he was concussed in the third quarter of their Week 2 meeting. Not a surprise. While Josh Allen is 11-2 (34 TDs, seven picks) against the Dolphins, Tua is 1-7 (seven TDs, 10 picks) against Buffalo. The Bills have won the last eight meetings in upper state New York by an average score of 36.6 to 21.4.

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TAKING: BUFFALO -6

Bills 36, Dolphins 21

DENVER BRONCOS (5-3) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-3)

LINE: Baltimore by 9.5

What a bizarre line. The Broncos have a Top 3 defence and are 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS as visitors. The Ravens ‘D’ is ranked 25th and has to contend with rookie QB Bo Nix, who has eight TD passes and one interception in his last five games. If they can limit the damage done by Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, Sean Payton’s team could pad its reputation as road warriors.

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TAKING: DENVER +9.5

Broncos 21, Ravens 20

LOS ANGELES RAMS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

LINE: Los Angeles by 1.5

Now that they have both Cooper Kupp and Pukua Nacua back to complement the running of Kyren Williams, the Rams could go on a tear. Like them to leapfrog the Seahawks, who were once a very strong home team but have now lost three in a row and are 1-4 ATS at Lumen Field. Even if D.K. Metcalf manages to limp back from a knee injury.

TAKING: LOS ANGELES -1.5

Rams 27, Seahawks 21

AND THE REST …

DALLAS COWBOYS (3-4) at ATLANTA FALCONS (5-3)

LINE: Atlanta by 2.5

It’s not like the Cowboys defence was great before Micah Parsons was injured, but it has allowed 77 points in the last two games without him. Still, Dallas needs this one more than the Falcons, who took over top spot in the NFC South by beating Tampa last week and know the Bucs aren’t likely to gain any ground by upsetting the Chiefs on Monday.

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TAKING: DALLAS +2.5

Cowboys 28, Falcons 27

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

LINE: New Orleans by 7.5

Only the Saints’ defence has allowed more yardage than Carolina’s, but like most games, this one will be decided by the quarterbacks. Derek Carr is doing everything he can to get over his oblique injury to play the Panthers, against whom he threw three TD passes in a 47-10 beating in Week 1 and is 5-0 against over his career. Panthers coach Dave Canales has already confirmed Andy Dalton (thumb) will need more rehab time and he’s again turning to Bryce Young, who threw two interceptions in a starting role last week as he did against the Saints in the opener.

TAKING: NEW ORLEANS -7.5

Saints 30, Panthers 20

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-6) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-5)

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LINE: Cincinnati by 7.5

The Raiders have dropped four in a row but they’re coming off back-to-back backdoor covers in one-score losses to the Rams and Chiefs. The Bengals have averaged just 18.3 points while winning two of their last three, but covering only one. Our mathematics say Bengals win by less than a TD.

TAKING: LAS VEGAS +7.5

Bengals 20, Raiders 14

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (6-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-6)

LINE: Washington by 3.5

Don’t be surprised if the Commanders are suffering, at least a bit, from a Hail Mary hangover, and it’s difficult for a team to beat a division rival twice in the same season (Washington kicked seven field goals to win the Week 2 meeting 21-18). But only the Dolphins have averaged fewer than the Giants 14.6 points per game, and Miami was without a quarterback most of the season. Did we mention that the Washington defence ranks third in yards allowed?

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TAKING: WASHINGTON -3.5

Commanders 23, Giants 17

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-3) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-6)

LINE: Los Angeles by 2

Because he followed the advice of Eminem and didn’t blow his opportunity last week, this line suggests Jamesis Winston has people believing that he can throw for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns again. But last week he did it against a Ravens pass defence ranked 32nd, while Chargers are ninth against aerial attacks. They also have Justin Herbert, whose previously tender ankle appears to be letting him throw the ball again. Plus Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in “East Coast” games.

TAKING: LOS ANGELES -2

Chargers 23, Browns 20

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-6) at TENNESSEE TITANS (1-6)

LINE: Tennessee by 3.5

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Whether he is out of concussion protocol or not, the Patriots will surely be careful with Drake Maye in this aimless season. But at the time this was written the list of those not practising for the Titans included Tony Pollard (who could run all over the lame New England run defence), Will Levis, Calvin Ridley, T’Vondre Sweat, Jeffrey Simmons and L’Jarius Sneed. Even Jacoby Brissett should be able to lead the Patriots to the cover of a field goal and hook if a couple of those guys are missing.

TAKING: NEW ENGLAND +3.5

Titans 17, Patriots 14

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-2)

LINE: Philadelphia by 7.5

Trevor Lawrence will be without his left tackle (Cam Robinson was traded to Minnesota) as well as at least one receiver (Calvin Kirk) while the status of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis is unclear.  The Eagles have won three in a row and their now healthy offence has racked up 65 points in the last two games. It should continue to march against the 29th-ranked defence.

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TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -7.5

Eagles 34, Jaguars 14

CHICAGO BEARS (4-3) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-4)

LINE: Arizona by 1

Coming off a bye last week Caleb Williams looked like he forgot everything he learned in his first six games, but the Commanders have the sixth-ranked pass defence and they are one of the best teams at applying pressure. The Cardinals are one of the worst, and their pass defence is 26th. So is their run defence. D’Andre Swift is one of the better pass-catching backs in the league, and he has rushed for an average of 96.5 yards in his last four games.

TAKING: CHICAGO +1

Bears 28, Cardinals 17

DETROIT LIONS (6-1) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-2)

LINE: Detroit by 3.5

The Lions have averaged 43 points in their last four games, so whether Jordan Love plays at less than 100 percent or Malik Willis is at QB for the Packers, it’s going to be very difficult for the green and gold to keep up. Green Bay is 62-29-4 at home against the Lions all-time, but in the calendar year 2023 the Lions won twice at Lambeau (34-20, 20-16).

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TAKING: DETROIT -3.5

Lions 28, Packers 24

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

LINE: Minnesota by 5.5

Joe Flacco will spell huffin’ and puffin’ Anthony Richardson as the Colts QB, which is good news for Indy backers since the 39-year-old vet has seven TD passes against one pick with the 22-year-old sophomore has four TD passes and seven picks. Colts also get a break with Vikings missing starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, which means in his second game back from injury DeForest Buckner should be able to get a good whiff at what type of toothpaste Sam Darnold uses. Vikings are too good to suffer their third straight loss, but they’ll be in a battle here.

TAKING: INDIANAPOLIS +5.5

Vikings 23, Colts 21

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-4) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-0)

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LINE: Kansas City by 8.5

Only two of the Chiefs wins have been by more than seven points and despite missing his stud receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Baker Mayfield still threw for 330 yards and three TDs in last week’s divisional loss to the Falcons. Patrick Mahomes could start trying at any time – and Tampa’s pass defence is 29th – but they don’t call him Backdoor Baker for nothing. Okay, they don’t call him that at all, but they might start after Monday.

TAKING:  TAMPA BAY +8.5

Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20

Dan Bilicki

LAST WEEK: 9-7

SEASON: 57–64-2

BEST BEST LAST WEEK: 0-1

BEST BET SEASON: 4-4

Don Brennan

LAST WEEK: 8-8

SEASON: 60-61-2

BEST BETS LAST WEEK: 1-2

BEST BET SEASON: 11–12-1

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