Vedanta Q1 Preview: Revenue may go up by up to 15% YoY; 59% uptick in EBITDA seen

Metal major Vedanta is expected to report its net profit in the range of Rs 2,197 crore to Rs 3,060 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2024, according to estimates by three brokerages. Meanwhile, the revenue is estimated at Rs 35,440 crore – Rs 38,674 crore for the said quarter.

The estimates have been given by Nuvama Institutional Equities, Kotak Institutional Equities and PhillipCapital.

While Nuvama has estimated the highest adjusted PAT figure for Vedanta, it sees a 30.8% fall in its net profit growth. Meanwhile, Kotak and Phillip see PAT growth by up to 242% on a year-on-year basis.

The highest estimate of revenue is from Kotak at Rs 38,674 crore, which expects over 15% rise on the YoY basis.

The company will announce its earnings on Tuesday, August 6.

Here’s what brokerages estimated:

Nuvama

Nuvam has estimated an adjusted PAT of Rs 3,060 crore for the April-June quarter, which in its view could decline by 30.8% on the YoY basis while rising by 94.7% on the QoQ basis. The sales in the reporting quarter is expected to be around Rs 35,440 crore, up by 5.1% YoY and down 0.2% QoQ.This brokerage has pegged Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) at Rs 10,200 crore, which may go up by 58.9% YoY and 16.4% on the QoQ basis.Nuvama has attributed a 16% QoQ uptick in Vedanta’s Q1 EBITDA owing to a rise in zinc and aluminium prices (up 15% QoQ) partially offset by lower volume across oil & gas, zinc and aluminium (down 1–4% QoQ).

It expects Zinc International’s EBITDA to improve from a low base (up 129% QoQ) because of higher prices and volume. Iron ore EBITDA is expected to decline on the back of reduced volumes, as there was a temporary suspension of mine production in Karnataka during May 2024, a preview note said.

Kotak Equities

Kotak’s estimates of the company’s adjusted PAT stands at Rs 2,945 crore which may go up by 242.5% on a YoY basis while appreciating by 87.8% on the QoQ basis. Net sales for the Anil Agrawal company is estimated at Rs 38,674 crore which may go up by 14.6% on the YoY basis and 8.9% on the QoQ basis.

EBITDA is seen at Rs 10,071 crore, higher by 56.9% on the YoY basis and 14.9% on the QoQ basis. Meanwhile, EBIT may go higher on a YoY and sequential basis to Rs 7,328.2 crore. It will be up by 89.4% YoY and 21.6% on the QoQ basis.

“We forecast a 15% QoQ increase in EBITDA (+57% YoY) due to higher commodity prices across major segments, particularly in zinc and aluminium,” Kotak’s brokerage note said.

It forecasts aluminium EBITDA to increase QoQ by 46% (+140% YoY) primarily led by higher LME prices while the oil & gas division is expected to witness an EBITDA decline of 26% QoQ on lower volumes and higher costs.

Zinc India division is expected to see a 9.7% QoQ increase in EBITDA on the back of higher zinc prices, partially offset by lower volumes.

PhillipCapital

Company’s PAT is estimated at Rs 2,197 which may go up by 66% YoY and 45% on the QoQ basis. Meanwhile, revenue is seen at Rs 36,069 crore, which is a 7% YoY rise while a 2% QoQ growth.

EBITDA could be reported at Rs 9,493 crore, which is a 48% YoY growth while 8% sequential. As for EBITDA margin, this metric is expected at 26.3% up from 19% YoY and 24.7% QoQ.

This brokerage notes Zinc International, Iron ore and Copper segment volumes to rise QoQ. Aluminium reported decline in volumes sequentially while LME aluminium, zinc and lead have improved 14%, 16% and 6% respectively. Crude is higher 4% QoQ while overall margins improve QoQ.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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