UK Labour landslide election victory

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

UK Labour wins landslide victory
The center-left Labour Party has won a landslide victory, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. Early projections show that Keir Starmer‘s Labour will gain its second-largest majority, following former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s 179-seat majority in 1997. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has conceded defeat. Brexiteer Nigel Farage has won his first seat in the British Parliament and his Reform Party is projected to pick up 13 seats.

Nikkei 225 hits record, Samsung up 
Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record high, crossing the 41,000 mark for the first time, before losing steam as household spending unexpectedly fell, jeopardizing plans by the central bank to raise interest rates. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.24% as Samsung Electronics stated second-quarter operating profit will surge almost 15-fold, mainly due to rebounding semiconductor prices driven by the artificial intelligence boom. Samsung shares climbed 2.84%, hitting their highest level since January 2021. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 1% and mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.48%.

Short losses 
Tesla‘s strong delivery report has caused significant losses for short sellers, with the stock rallying 17% in two days and short sellers losing $3.5 billion, according to S3 Partners. Tesla shares have surged 73% since April, nearing recovery with the stock $2 shy of wiping out losses for the year. Short interest is at 3.5% of the float, or 97 million shares, valued at $22.4 billion.

Friday’s ‘slowing payroll’
The June nonfarm payrolls report takes on added significance amid signs of a slowing labor market. Payroll gains in 2024 have slowed compared to last year, with economists predicting growth of 200,000 jobs for June, down from May’s 272,000. While job gains remain historically solid, rising unemployment levels and broader economic uncertainty have raised concerns about future economic weakness.

Saks deal
Saks Fifth Avenue parent HBC will acquire Neiman Marcus Group in a $2.65 billion deal, creating a new luxury retail giant. The combined entity will include Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks OFF 5TH, Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman. The move comes amid a challenging period for traditional brick-and-mortar retail, with department stores struggling to attract younger shoppers and facing a pullback in discretionary spending.

[PRO] Evercore’s ‘best ideas’
After a strong first-half performance for equities, fueled by the AI boom, Evercore ISI maintains its top stock picks for the second half of 2024. Their “best ideas” list, based on a long-term investment outlook, includes both AI beneficiaries and stocks facing recent pressure. Here are Evercore ISI’s best stock ideas for the second half.

Britain’s pollsters have been predicting a landslide victory for the center-left Labour Party for the last two years. Labour leader Keir Starmer will inherit an economy that’s turning a corner after a technical recession in the second half of 2023. However, the labor market is cooling, interest rates are likely to remain high despite easing inflation and there isn’t enough fiscal room to fix all the economy’s ills.

Nonetheless, RBC Capital Markets analysts note parallels between current market trends and the 1997 U.K. election, the last Conservative to Labour transition. Markets could see notable post-election gains and here are some sectors and stocks that may benefit.

With one election out of the way, attention will turn to France, where the far-right is expected to fall short of a majority, according to pollsters. Banking stocks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale rose on the latest exit polls. The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index has come off its highs after President Emmanuel Macron called the shock snap elections.

“Financial markets are actually taking the current and upcoming election risks in their stride… This is not to say that we do not add any political risk premium at all though, because matters will heat up as the U.S. elections near in November,” Jameel Ahmad, chief analyst at GTC Group based in Dubai, said.

“It is the US where matters are more unclear, with uncertainty spread out in the run-up to November. For example, will [President Joe] Biden actually be running and what are the actual campaign policies of Trump?”

While Biden’s team has said the president has no plans to withdraw, Vice President Kamala Harris‘ allies are privately discussing what her candidacy would look like.

As the S&P 500 continues to hit fresh record highs, investors may wonder whether now is the right time to diversify from the market cap-weighted benchmark in case of a pullback. However, CFRA’s Sam Stovall said allocating toward an equal-weighted index historically does little to protect investors.

“If history is any guide, for it is never gospel, investors need to be reminded that the equal-weighted versions of cap-weighted benchmarks have typically endured deeper selloffs and reduced frequencies of outperformance compared to their cap-weighted cousins during declines of 10% or more for the S&P 500 (since 1990), Nasdaq-100 (2007), Russell 2000 (2000), and S&P SmallCap 600 (2011),” Stovall wrote Wednesday.

“As a result, history showed that the collective approach to investing has frequently not lessened the magnitude of the eventual decline,” he added.

Attention will now turn to Friday’s jobs report, CNBC’s Jeff Cox tells us what to expect.

 — CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Sarah Min, Holly Ellyatt, Ganesh Rao, Brian Schwartz and Lora Kolodny contributed to this report.