The UK can expect a “tsunami of missed cancers”, leading experts have said, after an international study found that diagnoses fell sharply during the pandemic.
Preliminary figures from the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership, presented to delegates at the World Cancer Congress in Geneva, compared data on the instance and stage of cancer diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK, before and during the pandemic.
The results showed that UK nations saw the biggest and most sustained falls in the diagnosis of lung, breast, colorectal and skin cancers during 2020. Northern Ireland and Wales did particularly badly compared to the other countries studied.
While all countries saw a drop in cases diagnosed at the peak of the pandemic, most had caught up again within the year. In contrast, Wales and Northern Ireland still hadn’t recovered their diagnosis rates by the end of 2020.
The study calculated that between April and July 2020, breast diagnoses dropped by 35% in Northern Ireland and Wales, compared with 24% in Norway and only 14% in Denmark. For lung cancer, over the same time period, the decline was 16% in Northern Ireland and Wales compared with 10% in Norway or 1% in New Zealand.
For the most affected month, 44% of breast cancer cases and 30% of lung cancer cases were missed in Northern Ireland and Wales. There were also sharp declines in colorectal cancer diagnoses.
The decline on cases diagnosed was largest for early stage cancers, partly due to the suspension of screening programmes. In Northern Ireland and Wales stage I breast cancer diagnoses declined by 44% and 51%, respectively.
Cancer experts said that as a result of such large drops in diagnosis, they are expecting to see many more patients presenting with more advanced, late stage cancers.
“These data are a shocking wake up call, providing the key evidence that the UK can expect a tsunami of missed cancers and a potential shift in stage that may lead to more aggressive cancers that are more difficult to treat,” said Mark Lawler, professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast and chair of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. “And the fact we are still way off meeting the 62-day target to treat cancer can only compound the issue.”
Leading oncologist and co-founder of the Catch Up With Cancer campaign, Prof Pat Price, said: “These figures are a timely and devastating confirmation of the colossal cancer crisis. Without urgent action, we will see more patients diagnosed at a later stage and more patients facing delays to treatment.
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“We were at the bottom of the cancer league tables before the pandemic, and as this study shows, we’ve simply not recovered from the backlog in diagnosis. However, it does not have to be this way, as Lord Darzi’s new NHS report highlights. If ever there was a time to deliver and implement a dedicated cancer recovery plan it is now.”
Naser Turabi, director of evidence and implementation at Cancer Research UK, said: “These findings suggest the UK health system lacks resilience in comparison to countries such as New Zealand, leaving it more vulnerable to the impact of COVID. This could have serious consequences for cancer patients who faced delays to diagnosis as a result of over-stretched services.”