Trust NASA’s private station development process

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 I don’t know if NASA’s Angela Hart is a Sixers fan, but her take on the current landscape of private space station development matches the “trust the process” rallying cry that the Philadelphia basketball team made so famous. 

And I agree with Hart, NASA’s top commercial space station official: It’s early days of companies taking the lead on orbital research habitats. There’s a shuffling of players underway this week, but these are growing pains, not warning signs.

To rewind a bit here: The International Space Station is expected to retire in 2030, so NASA is helping fund development of next-generation orbital habitats. The agency sees a continued presence in low Earth orbit as valuable, especially with astronauts on the ISS nowadays cranking through more research than ever before.

Instead of going the traditional route and ordering contractors to build a new space station to its specifications, NASA wants to replicate the success of its Commercial Cargo and Commercial Crew programs. It wants to buy services from privately owned and operated stations, and is helping along the development of competing projects – having doled out over $500 million in various contracts so far, most of that through the Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) program.

The private U.S. space stations in development, both with and without funding from NASA, are a mix of companies’ solo and partnered projects. And, as Hart acknowledged, some of those partnerships are changing.

For one, the Starlab project being led by Voyager Space has a new teammate: Northrop Grumman confirmed yesterday it would no longer pursue a solo project and instead join Starlab to provide cargo and engineering services. That comes after Airbus joined the Starlab team earlier this year, taking the place of Lockheed Martin as the habitat’s core builder.

Secondarily, we’ll see what becomes of Orbital Reef: Nothing’s official, but co-leaders Blue Origin and Sierra Space are braced for a split, and a key leader is retiring from Blue at year-end. Individually the companies are adamant they’re making progress on their respective development but, like a couple about to break up, they don’t talk about each other by name any more.

Then there are the solo projects, by companies including SpaceX, Axiom, Vast, Gravitics and ThinkOrbital in various stages of studying, designing and developing everything from individual modules to full stations.

 With all that said, three key facts in the private space station landscape haven’t changed:

1. NASA is the kingmaker: While the agency’s development budget for CLD needs to grow substantially if any of these are going to be operational by the time the ISS retires, it’s still the biggest customer and investor here. The projects that win future, and hopefully larger, NASA contracts will have the best chance of success.
2. Commercial (i.e., not the government) demand is an open question. Who, besides NASA, will pay to utilize these private stations? There’s a lot of talk about this market’s potential size, but I want to see terrestrial customers put in some big money orders for access or services.
3. Timelines are aspirational. This goes for any project headed for orbit, but even more so for those that include keeping humans alive in space: Until I see specific days for a project’s launch, the years in these schedule targets don’t mean much.

• FCC levies first ever space debris penalty, with Dish admitting liability for failing to properly dispose of the EchoStar-7 satellite and agreeing to pay a $150,000 fee. Dish said in a statement that the satellite was exempt from the regulator’s “rule requiring a minimum disposal orbit,” and that there were “no specific findings” the satellite “poses any orbital debris safety concerns.” – CNBC
• China plots expansion of Tiangong space station, looking to double its number of modules and improve its capabilities. – SpaceNews
• Space regulation remains disjointed, with multiple government entities overseeing spaceflight and a one-stop shop yet to come to fruition. – Bloomberg
• Elon Musk again sets low expectations for next Starship launch, saying during his IAC talk that he thinks SpaceX has a “decent chance of reaching orbit,” but only “if the engines light” and the rocket “doesn’t blow itself up during stage” separation. – CNBC
• Russia boasts plans for multiple new space projects, even as its budget is cut: The leader of the Russian space program outlined the country’s plan for a new space station, a satellite communications constellation, and future rockets and spacecraft, but the country’s space budget is set to slip in the coming years. – Ars Technica
• Spacesuits? For the Moon? Groundbreaking: Axiom adds Prada as a partner for the spacesuits the company is developing for NASA’s lunar astronaut missions. The companies say “Prada’s engineers will work alongside the Axiom Space systems team throughout the design process, developing solutions for materials and design features to protect against the unique challenge of space and the lunar environment.”  – Axiom / Prada
• SpaceX launches 71st mission of the year, with the Falcon 9 rocket booster flying for its eighth time and delivering 22 Starlink satellites to orbit. – SpaceX
• Frosty Neutron test takes Rocket Lab’s progress another step, as the company completed cryogenic testing of the a second stage tank for the rocket. Rocket Lab pushed the liquid nitrogen-filled tank intentionally to the point of failure. – Rocket Lab
• Intuitive Machines shows off moon-bound lander, as the company prepares to ship its first spacecraft Nova-C in preparation for launch in November. – Intuitive Machines
• Firefly’s first lunar lander is coming together: The company announced the completion of development and assembly for its Blue Ghost lander’s structure and fluid milestones, with payload integration and environmental testing coming up for next year’s launch. – Firefly
• Back in business: Rocket Lab reopens former Virgin Orbit HQ that it is dedicating to production of its Rutherford and Archimedes engine lines. – Rocket Lab
• European Space Agency says Vega-C rocket is grounded for more than a year, with a recent engine test failure delaying its next possible launch to no earlier than fourth quarter 2024. – ESA

• Booz Allen Hamilton awarded $630 million Space Force contract, for a broad array of satellite systems engineering services over seven years for the Space Systems Command that runs programs such as missile warning and tracking. – Booz Allen Hamilton
• NASA selects seven companies for $476 million satellite data program, with the IDIQ (indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity) contract covering five years. The companies that will compete for those funds are Airbus, Capella, GHGSat, Maxar, PlanetiQ, Spire and Umbra Lab. – NASA
• Planet awarded $18.5 million NASA contract extension under the agency’s Commercial SmallSat Data Acquisition program. – Planet
• Rocket Lab acquires personnel and facility from competitive sailing venture, which was a New Zealand-based partner and supplier to the space company for composite materials and parts. – Rocket Lab
• Astroscale awarded Japanese government grant for up to $80 million to inspect a large, defunct satellite in orbit. – Astroscale

• Momentus raises $4 million in direct offering, with the company saying the at-the-market deal was bought by “a single institutional investor.” – Momentus

• Kenichi Imamura named chief people officer of ispace, joining the Japan-based company in a newly created role. – ispace

• Oct. 6: Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo launches the Galactic-04 mission from New Mexico.
• Oct. 6: ULA’s Atlas V launches Amazon’s Protoflight mission from Florida.
• Oct. 8: SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.
• Oct. 9: SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from California.