Trump’s Victory Speech And ‘Powerful Mandate’

Donald Trump had a lot to say during his victory speech at Mar-a-Lago early Wednesday morning. The most important line may have been this one: “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”

Trump has earned the right to claim public validation. He’s on track to be the first Republican presidential candidate in 20 years to get more support than his opponent. Exit polls suggest he won over all kinds of voters, all over the country. He is the American people’s choice for president, and that choice is not ambiguous.

Of course, talking about a “mandate” may also appeal to Trump’s grandiosity, or stroke his authoritarian instincts. It’s certainly what his more ideologically motivated supporters want to hear. They put a lot of time and effort into writing documents like Project 2025, the ominous-sounding Heritage Foundation document that lays out a far-right blueprint for governing. They want everybody to think that document has the public’s stamp of approval.

But an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” would mean that the voters did something more than simply say they preferred Trump to Vice President Kamala Harris. It would suggest that Trump ran on a clearly defined agenda, and that the voters gave it an unusually large endorsement.

The former claim is shaky. The latter is just plain wrong.

Trump is famously uninterested in policy, and ran his 2024 campaign the same way he ran his previous two. His campaign didn’t churn out white papers and official cost estimates in the way candidates like Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney all did in their campaigns. Instead, Trump’s policy content consisted mainly of a website with slogans and bland promises.

Trump’s rhetoric frequently made the agenda even harder to discern, because he would make vague and contradictory statements about what he plans to do in the future, or what he’s endorsed in the past.

That was most obviously true when it came to Project 2025, with its promises to purge the federal bureaucracy, to eliminate the Department of Education and to downsize the nation’s premiere weather forecasting agency because its research validates the existence of climate change. Trump’s campaign repeatedly disavowed the document, with Trump insisting he had never read it and would not enact it. The campaign even sent mailers to swing state voters disavowing the proposal.

Project 2025 also included proposals to ban the shipment of abortion pills through an archaic, 150-year-old law, and to prohibit emergency contraception through the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. That call was part of a broader, ongoing conservative effort to roll back reproductive rights, in part by establishing a national right to “fetal personhood” that would ban abortion nationally — and eliminate in vitro fertilization (IVF) too, because the process usually involves the destruction of embryos.

That effort is possible because Trump’s Supreme Court appointees ended the federal right to abortion, precisely as Trump promised they would. But after an Alabama court used that leeway to make a ruling against IVF, Trump disavowed the ruling and called himself “the father of IVF.” And he’s been all over the place on the subject of a national ban, suggesting at various points that he would sign some kind of national ban, or that he definitely wouldn’t, or that he did or did not want to find other ways to restrict abortion.

That ambiguity may well have helped Trump get elected, by assuaging concerns of sympathetic voters who nevertheless oppose federal abortion bans. But that also means there’s no mandate to restrict abortion nationally, especially amid polling showing that large majorities of Americans think it should be legal in most cases — and following an election in which nearly every state ballot measure to protect abortion rights passed.

Even on agenda items where Trump was clearer, like tariffs, Trump’s actual intentions were tough to discern. Trump frequently suggested using tariff revenue to replace the income tax altogether, though he wouldn’t specify whether he meant all income taxes or just personal ones — or how he intended to make the impossible math work. And on at least one occasion he said he might just start ratcheting up tariffs on Mexico, from 25% to 50 to 75 and eventually 100%, until it closes the border. There was no way to tell whether this was a seriously thought-out position, or just another of his famous riffs from the podium.

The issue on which Trump was probably clearest and most consistent was immigration. He has repeatedly promised mass deportations starting on his first day in office, and on Wednesday his press secretary told Axios that remained the plan. But neither Trump nor the campaign provided details on what that might look like in practice. It was up to outside analysts and journalists (like HuffPost’s Matt Shuham) to piece it all together, from outside policy papers and stray statements from key Trump advisers.

Those deportations would require a massive operation, including what Trump adviser Stephen Miller has described as the construction of “large-scale staging grounds near the border” as well as ongoing flights of “probably military aircraft, some existing DHS assets” ferrying immigrants to countries around the world. It would also disrupt the economy, given the extent to which undocumented immigrants fill low-wage jobs in agricultural, service and hospitality businesses.

There’s no doubt voters were angry about the spike in undocumented immigration during the Biden years, and the strain on public services alarmed even many Democratic state and local officials. In the exit poll jointly conducted by The Associated Press and Fox News, voters favored Trump on the issue by a 52% to 36% margin. And some polls found majority support for mass deportations, though it depended on the precise wording.

But polling also found voters holding more nuanced views than the blanket policy Trump seems to tout: When asked in that AP/Fox exit poll if “immigrants living in the United States illegally” should be given an opportunity to earn legal status or face deportation, 55% chose legal status and 44% chose deportation. A full quarter of the voters who chose a pathway to legal status backed Trump.

And all of that is before anybody sees what an actual mass deportation campaign would look like in practice, with federal officers splitting up families and ripping longtime friends and neighbors out of their homes and workplaces.

Public revulsion at images and stories of the federal government separating immigrant parents and children during Trump’s first term was so severe that he eventually signed an executive order ending the policy. The reaction to mass deportation could be just as severe, or worse.

There’s nothing especially unusual about voters supporting an idea in theory, without understanding or liking what it means in practice. And it’s not as if most Americans have the time or resources to sift through briefing papers when deciding how to vote.

They are making decisions based on broad impressions of the candidates’ priorities, values and leadership style — and with Trump, clearly, many voters simply like the way he operates. If he’s flouting political convention by refusing to give detailed explanations of his policies, they may see that as a virtue rather than a bug.

But that also raises the question of just how strong an endorsement Trump actually got.

The breadth of Trump’s electoral win has gotten a lot of attention, and quite rightly so. He is on track to win all seven of the contested swing states, and appears to have gained support in nearly every U.S. county.

By now, almost everybody who follows politics closely has probably seen a version of the maps with color-coded arrows showing where Trump got higher vote counts than in 2020. The maps are all Republican red, which if nothing else ought to spark some hard conversations among Democrats about what they’re doing wrong and what it would take to turn those arrows blue next time.

But when it comes to a mandate for action, the critical question isn’t whether Trump did better than he did in 2020 — when, after all, he lost. It’s how big his margin was this time.

Here, some historical context can help.

Biden in 2020 won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, Obama in 2008 by 7.3. Trump’s margin in the popular vote is isn’t clear yet, and might not be for several weeks until California finishes counting its trove of ballots. But the final tally is likely to show his lead over Harris down to between just 1 and 2 points, Lakshya Jain, political data analyst and co-founder of the website Split Ticket, told HuffPost.

It’s even possible Trump will end up with less than 50% of the popular vote overall, Jain added.

As with any president, just how much Trump can ultimately achieve in office won’t depend on his or anybody else’s definition of “mandate.” It will depend on real-world political constraints, like the size of his congressional majority (which is likely to be very narrow in the House) or effectiveness of his opposition (which could depend in part on how much fatigue liberals feel after fighting him all these years).

It will also depend on public opinion, which has been known to change once campaign slogans turn into governing reality.

Probably no single issue did more to help Trump politically than the economy. Voters held the Biden administration, including Harris, responsible for inflation. That suggests they didn’t think they were voting to raise the price of their consumer goods by $2,600 a year, which is part of the “massive collateral damage” multiple economists have said Trump’s tariff policies would cause.

Trump should know all about the perils of overreach. Last time he came into office, after he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, he claimed a mandate for repealing the Affordable Care Act, which had been one of his signature campaign promises. But he’d also promised “everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now,” even though repeal would have yanked insurance away from millions, which was deeply unpopular in practice.

He proceeded anyway, provoking a backlash that was a big reason Republicans lost control of the House in the midterm elections one year later. It’s impossible to know whether overreach would lead to similar political consequences now. But there’s plenty of reason to think it might.