(The Hill) – The escalating feud between former President Trump and Taylor Swift could impact November’s election as Democrats seek to use Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Harris as a turnout mechanism.
Trump made headlines Sunday when he posted “I hate Taylor Swift” on Truth Social, creating waves on both sides of the political spectrum. Democrats were quick to say Trump’s comment would come back to haunt him in November, but the data over Swift’s potential impact on the race is mixed.
More than 400,000 people visited vote.gov in the 24 hours after the pop star endorsed Harris in a post that linked to the voter registration website. But it’s unclear how many of those people will actually back Harris.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Monday found that only 6 percent of voters said Swift’s endorsement for Harris makes them more likely to support the vice president. While only 13 percent of voters said it makes them less likely to support Harris, 81 percent said Swift’s backing makes no difference, according to the poll.
Trump kept the Swift endorsement in the news with his Sunday post, though a second apparent assassination attempt quickly pushed the Trump-Swift fighting off the top of the news cycle.
Swift has not responded to the latest social media message from Trump.
The biggest question surrounding Swift’s influence could be whether the singer will have an impact with younger voters in the presidential race. This category of voters is less likely to vote in the first place, and in a tight election it could be the difference in states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.
“The hidden power of her endorsement is that she provided basic voter education in both her call to action to register to vote and her encouragement to research the candidates and make informed decisions which are both critical steps to preparing to vote and may not be that obvious to young voters who are new voters,” said Carolyn DeWitt, president and executive director of Rock the Vote.
Swift endorsed Harris just after the first and perhaps only debate between Trump and Harris ended last Tuesday night, arguing that the vice president “is a steady-handed, gifted leader” and saying that she believes “we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos.”
Political online engagement skyrocketed in the wake of Swift’s endorsement.
According to the ad tech firm Nexxen, Swift’s endorsement appeared to lead to a 250 percent increase in engagement around Harris. Additionally, the discourse surrounding women’s rights saw a 100 percent increase in engagement and a 150 percent increase in democracy related topics following the endorsement.
“To me, this means that there’s more visibility around the campaign and people are interested,” said Sham Mathis, Nexxen’s director of research insights. “They’re talking about it, they’re engaging with the content, and they want to know more.”
“Some of this is probably driven by Swifties but I think this is more than just the fans talking about the campaign. I think it’s also starting new conversations around the campaign.”
There has been an uptick in outreach from Democrats to swing state voters to try to increase the impact of Swift’s endorsement.
Over the weekend, “Swifties for Kamala” held a joint phone bank event with Voters of Tomorrow, which is a Generation Z-led organization to engage young Americans, to call unregistered students in battleground states Wisconsin and Georgia.
After Trump said he hated Swift on social media, the Harris campaign seized on the message, signaling it views both the endorsement and any social media feud between Trump and Swift as working in its favor.
Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), who represents the congressional district Swift is from, slammed Trump’s comments during an interview Monday with CNN.
“I was at an event last night where we were in fact talking about Taylor Swift, and I think this just piles onto the other offensive and divisive rhetoric that comes from the former president,” Houlahan said.
“I think that people here in Pennsylvania are pragmatic. We are a purple people,” she added, referring to Pennsylvania’s swing state status.
But some Republicans aren’t as sure.
“Trump has always sought-out public feuds with celebrities. … encouraging his culture war-loving supporters and offending his detractors who find it beneath the dignity of the office and reflective of a divisive, unserious leader,” said GOP strategist Bruce Mehlman, a former official under President George W. Bush.
“A fight with Taylor Swift won’t impact how any voters see him other than first time voters likely too young in 2016 or 2020 to have paid attention and formed strong opinions,” he added.
Others say it may not be in Trump’s interest to engage with Swift, or seek to engage supporters about Swift, if it risks energizing people to vote against him.
“Energizing voters that might otherwise stay home is the name of the game for this election. When Trump attacks Taylor Swift, he does motivate her fans to come out and vote, but more importantly, he reminds undecided voters that he doesn’t stick to policy or have a serious approach to this election,” said Andrea Riccio, a Democratic strategist and founder of Velocity Partners.