Key events
177km to go: “It it was blowing a hooley, it would be a real, real difficult one,” observes Sean Kelly on Eurosport in his inimitable style.
179km to go: It’s calmed down again. Alpecin–Deceuninck are up at the front, controlling the pace, patrolling any potential escapees. The helicopter shots of the vineyards are delightful as the pack rides across the Pont de Fleury.
181km to go: Meanwhile … action! Attacks! I don’t think a break has formed. But the pace is suddenly very hot, to match the weather.
181km to go: This is probably my favourite Cavendish stage win. Aubenas 2009:
182km to go: “Action is going to happen today,” says Adam Blythe on the Eurosport motorbike. “This is the calm before the storm.”
184km: I’m a very occasional and small-stakes gambler … which is why I failed to get my fiver on Cavendish before the market was suspended on a well-known betting exchange website. Let the record state: I sincerely hope he wins today, bet or no bet.
185km to go: Today’s intermediate sprint arrives with 92.6km to race, at Les Matellettes. There is one category-four climb, the Côte de Fambetou, which arrives with 76km remaining.
186km to go: Sean Kelly, on Eurosport commentary, says that many of the riders will have been briefed not to try bother to try and get in the break. That is on the basis that the fast men’s teams are so determined to make this a sprint day, any escape would be doomed to failure.
At the moment, we are looking at a very dull day up until the final section. It should be said this may also down to Cavendish’s stature in the peloton. Would there be many riders who would want to go down as denying him at least a chance of a final stage win?
186.5km to go: Sandy Dujardin (TotalEnergies) is out front on his own. He’s coasting, but the peloton is crawling along behind. Rather than a hectic fight for the breakaway that many expected, we are seeing a complete cancellation of hostilities.
187km to go: Küng sits up, then stops for a pee. The peloton is massed behind and the road is blocked for anyone who fancies a cheeky attack.
Racing on Tour de France Stage 16!
Stefan Küng (Groupama–FDJ) attacks from the start. He looks back to see if anyone else fancies it. They don’t.
Less than a kilometre to ride until the flag is waved and we’re off and racing.
Here is the Guardian’s report of Cavendish’s Nîmes stage win in 2008, his fourth, that the Manxman mentioned in his pre-stage interview.
Poignant to note the report was written by the late, great Richard Moore. Rest in peace.
“Hello,” emails Fiona.
“When I look at a brownie, I gain five pounds.”
See, there is hope for Pog’s rivals.
Now, I should mention, the riders are on the road. They’ve got 5km neutralised still to ride until the race starts.
Christoph Roodhooft, Alpecin–Deceuninck DS, says there will be “a lot of nervosity” today.
Mark Cavendish on his aims for today: “We try for a sprint. Eighteen years ago … 16 years ago, sorry, in Nîmes, I had a stage win.
“I’ve been here since, but I’ve not been here for a bunch sprint since, I think. Nils Pollitt won in ’21, same finish as that last km or so. And the wind could play a factor.”
“All the sprinters who got through those horrific days in the Pyrenees will want a reason for getting through that,” Cavendish says.
What will be Cavendish’s legacy? “I don’t know really. I don’t think that’s for me to say. I do what I do. I love riding my bike. I hope other people enjoy this sport, either riding or watching, as much as I do. That’s what would make me happy.”
And then he’s off, for what is presumable one last attempt at a Tour stage win … Allez, Cav!
On Eurosport, Matt Stephens asks Mark Cavendish about battling to make the time cut on Sunday.
“It was only the last climb we had to go full on,” Cavendish says. “It’s because we stayed to our plan … we have a schedule every day of what we can do on the climbs … in the gruppetto you think you’d make time up in the valley, if you ride like that. But it was a block headwind in the valleys, and the front guys have a motorbike, and we don’t, so the draft they get from that is phenomenal.
“So we were a little bit behind where we wanted to be … it put us a bit close for that last climb. We had to give everything … [Alexey] Lutsenko was there with a bidon every 500m pouring water over my back, to keep me cool, so I could keep going, keep going.
“It’s all right. It’s not the first time I’ve had to suffer in the Tour de France, trying to get through. You’d just rather not have to empty yourself. We did, and we had a rest day, that’s how it is.”
Consulting the official withdrawals page, however, Pedersen packed it in.
William Fotheringham’s Stage 16 preview
William Fotheringham
The final sprint stage on a generally flat route. “Les grosses cuisses” won’t want to let this one go, although if the wind blows, the race could split apart as it has done in the past here. That could suit the big Dane Mads Pedersen or the diminutive Frenchman Bryan Coquard, either of whom could have an interest in the green jersey of points winner, given the number of stages where the pure sprinters will struggle to score.
Jeremy Whittle
On a day in which French radio described Harry Kane as the “Raymond Poulidor of world football” – Poulidor finished on the podium in the Tour de France eight times, but never won – Tadej Pogacar was, for once, not having to face the usual rest‑day questions about credibility that come with wearing the race leader’s yellow jersey.
The consensus among Eurosport pundits is this is going to be chaos at the start.
Robbie McEwen says: “I raced in this area a lot during my career and never had a calm day … even the “calm” days are really windy.”
“Thank you so much guys. You are legends. Absolute legends.”
So said Mark Cavendish to his teammates after they helped him make the time cutoff on Sunday’s mountain stage.
They’ll have had a short spin yesterday to keep the legs moving … and they will be ready to throw everything at this stage today.
We can safely say, in the absence of the usual sprint finish in Paris on Sunday, that this is Mark Cavendish’s final chance to win a stage at this Tour … and perhaps the final victory chance of his remarkable, record-breaking career. The Manxman fought hard to make the time cut before the rest day, and that gynormous effort will all have been with an eye on today. Don’t bet against him.
Jasper Philipsen is the clear favourite for the stage win today. Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert, Dylan Groenewegen, Mark Cavendish and Arnaud De Lie will also be in the mix. Will we see a textbook small breakaway reeled in by the sprinters’ teams for the fast riders to duke it out at the end?
Preamble
Is there any hope for Tadej Pocagar’s GC rivals heading into the final week? The Slovenian leads the overall race by a commanding margin of 3min 09sec, so it seems not. On the plus side for Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and the other GC hopefuls, Pogacar revealed he ate a chocolate brownie on yesterday’s rest day. That’s about it when it comes to chinks in the armour of the 25-year-old who already has three grand tour wins on his palmarès.
There is plenty of scope for drama today, however. This flat 188.6km route between Gruissan and Nîmes looks nailed on to finish in a bunch sprint, but crosswinds are also expected to be a factor – so we’re likely to see a fierce battle to form the day’s breakaway. Who knows, if it’s blowing a gale out there, we might even see splits in the peloton that will have an impact on GC.
Route analysis, preview chat from riders and more coming up. Allez!
Stage start time: 12.05pm BST