(NewsNation) — With 53.3% of the vote, NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ has called the race for the U.S. Senate seat for Montana in favor of Tim Sheehy. See all Montana race results here.
Three-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester looked to secure another win in his increasingly Republican state of Montana against Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a decorated former Navy SEAL.
Tester previously won in 2006, 2012 and 2018, but winning a fourth term appeared more difficult after Montana favored former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election and Trump endorsed his wealthy businessman challenger Sheehy in 2024.
The incumbent Democrat is a former state Senate president and was considered a moderate in the U.S. Senate. He emphasized his work for veterans and his roots as a third-generation farmer in central Montana.
In response to a Montana Free Press questionnaire on his policy positions, Tester said he believed the biggest issue facing Montana was an influx of multimillionaires “using Montana as their personal playground,” and positioned himself as working on issues with President Joe Biden that benefited Montana residents. However, he also said he “stood up to Biden” on the question of keeping the COVID-era Title 42 immigration policy in place that restricted entry into the country at the southern border.
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Sheehy founded aerial firefighting company BridgerAerospace in 2014 near Bozeman after moving to Montana in 2014. The former Navy SEAL said he didn’t consider running for office until the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, during which 13 U.S. service members were killed.
The Senate seat was Sheehy’s first run for public office, and his platform aligned with Republican priorities such as securing the southern U.S. border and opposing gun control. Sheehy, like Tester, laid out his positions to the Montana Free Press, stating he believed “career politicians” in Washington needed to be held to account and said he signed the Term Limits Pledge as a candidate. Sheehy said he was “pro-life and support commonsense protections for when a baby can feel pain,” with exceptions, and held the party line on criticizing Democrats on “record inflation, open borders, rising crime, collapsing foreign policy, unattainable housing prices and out-of-control debt.”
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Following his party’s poor showing in Montana in 2020, Tester became the only Democrat in Montana to hold statewide office, reflecting a decadelong rise by Republicans. He did not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris and spent time on the election trail speaking on how he has worked with Republicans on the migrant crisis.
In the weeks leading up to the election, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecast gave Sheehy a 79% chance of winning the Senate seat and flipping it for Republicans.
The outcome of this race will affect the balance of power in the Senate. A total of 34 seats are up in 2024, with 23 being held by Democrats and independents. Republicans can retake control of the upper chamber of Congress by flipping two seats from Democrats or by winning the presidential race and flipping just one other seat.