Drilling rigs sit unused on a companies lot located in the Permian Basin area on March 13, 2022 in Odessa, Texas.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
The bottom line
There’s a new narrative in markets.
The Nvidia-fueled rally that began in May seems to be petering out. Expectations of bumper earnings are now baked into stock prices — and investors are realizing how expensive artificial intelligence stocks are. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF was down 5.2% for the week, its worst since October 2022.
At the same time, the U.S. economy is growing so much more than anticipated that Wall Street thinks a recession isn’t happening this year. Economists, according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve poll, are also revising upwards their growth forecasts.
A robust economy means higher demand for goods and services. One barometer of that is oil. Indeed, prices for oil have rallied for seven consecutive weeks, the first time since June 2022. To be sure, that’s largely because of supply constraints for now, but increased demand will surely translate into higher prices soon.
That’s good news for investors in energy stocks, which led the market Friday, last week, this month and this quarter, as CNBC’s Scott Schnipper observed. The VanEck Oil Services ETF rose 2% last week, handily beating the VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
But that’s bad news for investors wary of interest rates. Higher commodity prices and demand might mean the Federal Reserve may not pause — or cut — rates as soon as markets expect. The hotter-than-expected PPI reading adds credence to this new narrative.
Markets were shaken. The S&P 500 lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%, giving both indexes their second straight losing week. For the Nasdaq, that’s its longest down streak since December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, managed to eke out a 0.3% increase to advance 0.6% for the week.
The week ahead is dominated by consumer spending data, which can be fuzzy because it tends to fluctuate by season and sentiment. Prepare for more volatility.