A new update on The Witcher 4 from CD Projekt Red may have revealed a PS6 and next-gen Xbox release date for the game. The Polish studio recently revealed that the next installment in The Witcher series — and the first since 2015’s The Witcher 3 — has entered full production. And this is noteworthy for a variety of reasons, including what it reveals about the release date.
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The Witcher 3 itself notably began full scale development in 2011. It then released four calendar years later in 2015. Then in 2016, CD Projekt Red’s next game, Cyberpunk 2077, entered full production. Four calendar years later it released in 2020.
The pattern suggests now that The Witcher 4 has entered full production in 2024 it should release in 2028, though there are a few things to take into consideration that may change this.
One, video game development continues to get longer and longer for a variety of reasons. In other words, historical development patterns may not be as useful as a predictor as they used to be.
Two, Cyberpunk 2077 was clearly rushed out the door, and CD Projekt Red paid a price for this. To this end, CDPR has more than once noted it is committed to never making this mistake again, which could point to a longer development for The Witcher 4 and a higher chance of it being delayed if it needs more time in the oven.
As a result, while a 2028 release date for The Witcher 4 seems the most likely, a slip to 2029 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a release in 2027 seems very unlikely at this point. What makes the potential 2028 release date all the more interesting is 2028 is when the PS6 and next Xbox are expected to release based on leaked Microsoft documents. Cyberpunk 2077 notably had a similar release timing, right in the middle of a generational transition from the PS4 and Xbox One to the PS5 and Xbox Series X. It seems the stars may be aligning for yet another cross-gen release for CD Projekt Red, though last time it didn’t go very well for it.
To this end, The Witcher 4 could very be pushed to 2029 or even 2030 when there is a larger install base for the PS6 and next Xbox, otherwise CD Projekt Red has no choice but to do a cross-gen release, which will no doubt be very tricky with a game as ambition as The Witcher 3. Again, a Cyberpunk 2077 situation all over again.