Those complaining about the tedium and predictability of the UK’s general election must gaze with envy across the Channel to France, a country suddenly plunged into a frenzy of electoral uncertainty. And those in Britain who bemoan a lack of bold leadership cannot but note the contrast presented by its president, Emmanuel Macron, who may be arrogant and impetuous but is certainly not lacking in political courage.
Audacity was the quality most esteemed by the French revolutionary Georges Danton (although it ultimately led him to the guillotine), and this Macron possesses in abundance. It enabled his storming of the presidency in 2017 at the youngest-ever age of 39. It has sustained him through successive national upheavals and an approval rating stuck at under 35%. Now it has led him to call a snap parliamentary election at the very moment his far-right enemies enjoy record support.
To many in France, both supporters and opponents, this looks like a suicidal gamble. It was precipitated by the galling victory of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), formerly the National Front, in last weekend’s EU elections. Like other presidents before him, notably Jacques Chirac, disastrously, in 1997, Macron is asking: what sort of country do you want? A France run by reason or a France ruled by the rabble? Après moi, le déluge.
It is entirely possible that this peremptory demand that voters “assume their responsibilities” and reject extremism will backfire spectacularly. The RN has 33% support, Macron’s centrist Renaissance party 19%. RN won every region in the EU elections. While turnout was low, one survey found that nearly half of those voting RN did so primarily to express dissatisfaction with Macron and his government.
An outright far-right victory in the two-round poll, which commences on 30 June, could render Macron a lame duck, doomed to “cohabit” with an overtly xenophobic, Islamophobic, authoritarian and illiberal government led, prospectively, by Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s young protege. Even if the RN merely emerges as the largest party, it may still dictate future policy.
Macron’s calculation, if such circumstances arise, appears to be that the harsh realities and difficult choices involved in actually being in office and in charge will expose the RN for what it truly is – a party of protest and prejudice unfit to govern. That in turn could forestall what was otherwise beginning to look inescapable: a Le Pen presidential victory in three years’ time and a dangerous leap into the unknown.
It’s a high-risk strategy. If it goes wrong, Macron’s party will be crushed. He will have handed the keys to one of Europe’s leading countries to the far right, an outcome likely to inspire likeminded extremists everywhere, not least in Germany. But if it works, Macron will portray himself as the historically vindicated hero who drew a line, repulsed the advancing forces of darkness and saved France from itself – always his preferred self-image.
No one knows how this is going to play out. Panicked parties of the left have done what they failed to do since 1936: Socialists, Communists, Greens and the far-left France Unbowed have united to revive the defunct Popular Front. Meanwhile, the centre-right Republican party disintegrated after its leader, Éric Ciotti, broke a taboo by advocating an electoral pact with Le Pen. Dodging angry colleagues, he locked himself in his office and refused to resign. Expect more drama to come.
“To be French is to rise to the challenge of the epoch when necessary,” Macron declared with studied grandiloquence. “It is to know what a vote is worth and how liberty feels. To act, whatever the circumstances, with responsibility is fundamentally to write history rather than be its victim. That moment is now.”
Famous last words? Who says politics is boring?