The Jaguars overestimated themselves. Did they overestimate Trevor Lawrence, too?

The NFL’s biggest surprise teams through Week 4 reside at opposite ends of the standings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after losing their highly drafted rookie quarterback and substituting the well-traveled Sam Darnold in his place.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 less than four months after rewarding their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, with a $275 million extension.

Here’s another surprise: Lawrence’s statistical production through his 54 career starts mirrors the production for Darnold to the same point in his career (Darnold has made starts No. 57-60 this season).

It’s early for a Jaguars autopsy, but so far, Jacksonville fits the profile of a team that overestimated itself, symbolized most resoundingly when paying its quarterback. The team is facing tough questions earlier than anticipated because winnable games slipped away, leaving the Jaguars 0-4 for the second time in four seasons with Lawrence, and for the fourth time in 13 seasons with owner Shad Khan.

The schedule delivers beatable opponents over the next three weeks in the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2) and New England Patriots (1-3), but enough has gone wrong through the Jaguars’ first four games to examine the evidence. Including that Darnold-Lawrence comp.

“It will not end well”

The Jaguars are not the only team to invest market-setting dollars in a quarterback carrying question marks long before there was a deadline for making a decision. The Miami Dolphins acted similarly with Tua Tagovailoa, as did the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray. Both Lawrence and Murray signed extensions with two years remaining on their rookie contracts.

Shortly after the Jaguars extended Lawrence’s deal for $55 million annually, 50 coaches and executives voting in my 2024 Quarterback Tiers survey combined to place Lawrence in Tier 3. Lawrence ranked 16th. Tagovailoa was one spot higher. Murray was one spot lower. (Those three quarterbacks’ teams are a combined 2-10 this season.)

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The deal for Lawrence came after the Jaguars lost five of their final six games last season, with the only victory coming against Carolina, when Lawrence was unavailable because of injury.

“They have a quarterback they think is a superstar, and he is not a superstar,” a QB Tiers voter said over the summer. “Ownership thinks he is a superstar. It will not end well.”

The implication was that Lawrence can be good, but not great, and that he isn’t good enough consistently enough to meet sky-high expectations.

“Make no mistake, this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever,” Khan told fans in late August. “Best players, best coaches. But most importantly, let’s prove it by winning now.”

The Darnold comp

Through 54 starts, Darnold and Lawrence had identical won-lost records (20-34), the same yards per pass attempt (6.7) and nearly the same average air yards per attempt. Their passer ratings lagged. Darnold took more sacks. Lawrence suffered from more dropped passes.

Lawrence had the better expected points added (EPA) per pass play, but in looking at the table below, we would never conclude that one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-setting extension, while the other was an abject failure.

Both players experienced terrible team situations early in their careers — Darnold with the New York Jets in the NFL’s largest media market, Lawrence with Jacksonville in its smallest.

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“Good players can be in bad situations, bad players can be in good situations and it takes a little while to figure out the true merit sometimes,” a veteran coach said.

Lawrence badly missed two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., for what would have been long touchdown passes during the Jaguars’ 24-20 defeat at Houston in Week 4.

With those throws presumably in mind, coach Doug Pederson pushed back when asked after the game about possibly taking over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson replied. “I thought he called a great game. As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street.”

Lawrence missed Thomas along the right sideline for what would have been another big gain. Receivers made diving catches to secure two shorter throws. Other passes were imprecise enough to limit yards after the catch. Most of the misses were overthrows.

“When someone is so consistently spraying the ball and they are a guy who was a No. 1 overall (draft choice), I almost always feel like there is some element of, I don’t want to say the yips, but some sort of mechanical, fundamental thing,” NFL quarterback-turned-analyst J.T. O’Sullivan said while breaking down every Jaguars offensive play from Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers.

O’Sullivan noted that Lawrence in this game hopped backward unnecessarily while throwing. Bad habits can set in when quarterbacks do not trust their pass protection. Lawrence took a punishing hit early in the Houston game as the Texans’ physical defensive front asserted itself.

The Jaguars rank 16th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric and 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ pass-block grading, which doesn’t seem so bad. Reviews from within the league have been harsher.

“They play up front like they can’t wait until the play is over — tough to watch,” a personnel executive said before the Houston game. “The quarterback is missing easy throws. There’s bad body language. Just in general, offensively, a downtrodden group.”

Considering a potential Wentz parallel

The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per play during Pederson’s Super Bowl-winning tenure as their coach from 2016 to 2020. That period encompassed the rise and fall of Carson Wentz. Is Lawrence following a similar arc on a smaller scale?

The chart above compares the cumulative pass EPA for Wentz and Lawrence when both were with Pederson, pegged to career start number. The line for Wentz begins at career start No. 1, while the line for Lawrence begins at career start No. 18. There’s nothing definitive here, but this could be worth revisiting as the 2024 season progresses.

Pederson benched Wentz late in their fifth and final season together. Lawrence remains early in his fourth NFL season and third with Pederson. His five-year contract extension begins in 2026. He’s likely going to be in Jacksonville for years to come, no matter who is coaching.

Nine consecutive defeats for Lawrence

Lawrence’s current nine-game losing streak as a starter moves him one away from matching Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21) for the longest such streaks since 2000 for quarterbacks drafted No. 1.

Ten would also match the Jaguars’ franchise record, held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

Darnold has been there before, once losing nine straight with the Jets. But his recent team and individual production far outpaces that of Lawrence, as the table below shows.

The decision to extend Lawrence’s contract at such an expensive price does not stand alone among choices inviting scrutiny for Jacksonville. They used the first pick in the 2022 draft for Travon Walker instead of Aidan Hutchinson. Bigger-picture defensive changes also stand out.

Last season, the Jaguars ranked 23rd on offense and 11th on defense as measured by EPA per play. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and seven defensive assistants.

The offense ranks about the same this season (24th), but the defense ranks much worse (30th) while transitioning to a new style. Under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville is playing man coverage at the second-highest rate (42 percent) after having the third-lowest rate (15 percent) last season.

Darnold, backed by the NFL’s top-ranked defense by EPA per play, has attempted only two passes while trailing this season. The Jaguars’ record and Lawrence’s role in it would likely be footnotes if Jacksonville were getting that kind of production from its defense this season.

The defensive changes could still pay off. Lawrence and the offense could still hit stride.

The Jaguars were close to breaking open their season-opening game at Miami, but running back Travis Etienne fumbled as he neared the goal line. The Dolphins scored an 80-yard touchdown two plays later. Jacksonville led Houston 20-17 late in the third quarter when Tank Bigsby’s 58-yard run gave the Jaguars first-and-goal from the 4. Jacksonville turned over the ball on downs.

The 24-20 defeat to Houston dropped the Jaguars to 1-4 since the start of last season in games decided by four or fewer points. Such things tend to even out. The evening out cannot happen fast enough for a team set to induct its only winning coach, Tom Coughlin, into its Ring of Honor in Week 5.

(Photo of Trevor Lawrence, right, and Doug Pederson: Bryan Bennett / Getty Images)

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