Afghanistan’s shock win over Australia at the T20 World Cup means all four sides in Super 8s Group 1 can still qualify for the semi-finals.
India are in pole position after winning their first two second-round matches by a handsome margin, with Bangladesh bang up against it after two heavy defeats.
Here are the permutations ahead of the final round of games, with India taking on Australia on Monday (3.30pm UK) before Afghanistan meet Bangladesh on Tuesday (1.30am UK).
As ever, net run-rate could prove crucial…
India on course for semi-finals
Rohit Sharma’s side, who beat Afghanistan and Bangladesh by 47 and 50 runs respectively, will definitely advance to the semi-finals if they beat Australia or the game is rained off.
They will also go through if they lose and then Bangladesh beat Afghanistan or if that match is abandoned.
Should they lose to Australia and Afghanistan then beat Bangladesh – results that would leave India, Australia and Afghanistan on four points apiece – India’s strong net run-rate, which currently stands at +2.425, would still leave them in good stead.
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Highlights from India’s 50-run win over Bangladesh as Hardik Pandya struck an unbeaten 50 from 27 balls
For them to be eliminated on net run-rate, India would have to lose to Australia by 41 runs and for Afghanistan to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
Australia or Afghanistan likely vying for one place
Australia’s net-run rate (+0.223) is better than Afghanistan’s (-0.65) at the moment, which could give the 2021 champions the edge in the event that those sides both win or both lose.
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Highlights from Afghanistan’s historic 21-run win over Australia in the Super 8s
To chuck a scenario out there, if Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan would need to defeat Bangladesh by 36 runs to leapfrog Australia on net run-rate.
If Afghanistan lose by just one run, Australia would need to have lost by 31 runs for their net run-rate to slip below Afghanistan’s.
If Australia win and Afghanistan lose, Australia are through. If Afghanistan win and Australia lose, Afghanistan are through. No results in both games and Australia advance on NRR.
What about Bangladesh?
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Pat Cummins’ hat-trick helped Australia beat Bangladesh in their Super 8s opener
With their net run-rate a poor -2.489, Bangladesh are struggling to make the semi-finals. To do so, they would need a heavy win over Afghanistan and a massive defeat for Australia vs India.
To go ahead of Afghanistan on NRR, they would need to beat their opponents by 31 runs, but that would only be good enough for second place if Australia lost to India by 55 runs.
Watch India vs Australia live on Sky Sports Cricket from 3pm on Monday (3.30pm first ball) and then Afghanistan vs Bangladesh from 1am on Tuesday (1.30am first ball) on the same channel.
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