This morning we have woken up to those kind of news coming in from South Korea wherein, of course, there was that Martian law that was put on, then it was taken off. Now, there is news of impeachment, a lot going on as far as the Extraordinary General Meeting of the Central Bank in South Korea is concerned. But it begs the question whether India is one of those safe havens of sort where there is political stability, where there is economic stability, while even countries like, of course, China, South Korea, West Asia, and all of that are going through their own turmoil. Does that make India stand out as one of the best opportunities right now?
Geoff Dennis: Oh, yes, it does. And I have argued this all the way along. Whether the markets are going up or markets are going down, I think India is a good place to be in relative terms. I mean, these events in South Korea are frankly extraordinary and came completely out of left field. Nobody saw them coming. Korea has been a very weak market this year. It is down about 19% in dollar terms within the EM index and so this is just more pain for the Korean market and we will have to see how the politics plays out. But it is certainly not good for anyone who might think about doing some bottom fishing in the Korean market. So, to an extent, it just does emphasise some of the qualities as an alternative that the Indian market does have.
To the point on South Korea as well, do you think this situation is going to get escalated and would it have impact on business, of course?
Geoff Dennis: Yes, I mean, I do not think it is going to get escalated particularly. The risk of escalation would have been had President Yeol stuck with his martial law declaration and basically brought in the army to, if not run the country, close to running the country.
And, of course, quelling the demonstrators potentially in a violent way. I think now that he has rescinded the martial law situation, I think the uncertainty over Korean politics really comes down to will the president be impeached?
What does it mean for a potential future government? Because, of course, the major reason why he did this is because he has had real trouble getting legislation through. He is unpopular. And so, I think if in the end he is impeached and disappears and we get new elections with a new president, I think that might eventually be quite good for Korea. But meanwhile, we have got to go through that, but I doubt it gets much worse than it is right now.
So, do you think this entire South Korea episode could be contained and it could be like a one-day headline, a two-day discussion, a three-day curiosity topic, but it is not going to destabilise the region per se? I am talking about the financial markets here.
Geoff Dennis: I do not think it should destabilise the region. In fact, EM has done quite well over the last two days, really, since including today. It is up again today, was up yesterday, despite all of this news out of Korea. So, I think politically, although this has tremendous ramifications globally, it is probably seen as pretty good for North Korea. It is seen as pretty good for Russia, which supports North Korea. It is bad for the US in some sense. The US has got I think its 28,000 troops in South Korea. So, the political instability is not great for, should we say, the allies of the US and the West generally. But I still think the whole uncertainty about political instability in Korea will be contained. There is no earthly reason why the declaration of martial law in Korea should impact other parts of the region directly. And if you look at the rest of the region, markets like Taiwan and to a lesser extent India and China continue to be outperformers in 2024 and I do not see any reason why that should change because of this event now, as I say, now that the martial law declaration which came, as I say, completely out of left field, now that that has been reversed.