The AP Top 25 is out and it looked almost identical to last week’s Coaches Poll. At least one unranked team is guaranteed to make the College Football Playoff (no Group of 5 team is ranked), but my hunch is that two sleeper candidates will make it in.
Last year, Missouri finished No. 8 in both polls after going unranked in the preseason and didn’t get a single vote in the AP poll. The year before that, it was TCU that got shut out in the preseason poll and made it to the national title game. The year before that, Baylor finished No. 5, rising from the unranked.
Knowing that kind of history, there are probably six unranked teams with a legitimate shot to crack the Playoff in 2024 if things break right for them.
GO DEEPER
What the AP Top 25 says about CFB in 2024: Is Ohio State a better bet than No. 1 Georgia?
The Hokies found their identity offensively in the second half of 2023, winning five of their last seven games. Quarterback Kyron Drones ran all over Tulane in a 41-20 romp over the No. 23 team in the Military Bowl. Drones is an elite athlete who kept improving over the season, throwing 17 TDs and just three INTs.
Tech has a dynamic RB in Bhayshul Tuten — a terrific all-around back with good speed. The receiving corps is deep and athletic with 6-foot-5, 221-pound Da’Quan Felton (No. 22 on the Freaks List) being a matchup nightmare for defenses. Plus, Virginia Tech gets Ali Jennings back. The former Old Dominion star is another big target at 6-2, 205 who only played two games last season before an injury cost him the rest of the year. Brent Pry’s defense has playmakers in the D-line and the secondary. They were No. 2 in the ACC in sacks with 39 and No. 10 in the country. Middle linebacker Sam Brumfield, an instinctive former Middle Tennessee standout, should be a terrific fit to help run the show.
The Hokies do have a tricky six-day stretch of hosting a physical Rutgers team before going to Miami, which will be their toughest road test. They get Clemson at home and don’t face FSU or NC State. I am buying Florida State and Miami, but given all the talent the Noles lost, the ACC feels more wide open this year.
Coaches at multiple stops have gushed about quarterback Tyler Shough’s talent. The challenge has been keeping him healthy for a full season, but if that happens, the Cardinals, with Jeff Brohm running the show, will be dangerous. Shough, who turns 25 in September, has never been able to play more than seven games in a season over the past five years.
The Cardinals have to replace a pair of explosive running backs without Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. There is unproven talent there in Maurice Turner, who also has great burst, and 220-pound Miami transfer Don Chaney. They also have to replace WR Jamari Thrash but picked up Alabama transfer JaCorey Brooks for 2024. Defensively, there are seven starters back, led by productive edge rusher Ashton Gillotte, LB T.J. Quinn and CB Quincy Riley from a unit that ranked No. 10 in the country against the run and No. 21 overall. The Cards schedule isn’t easy. They have road trips to South Bend and Clemson and play Miami sandwiched in between two other road games. But if Shough stays healthy, this team has the pieces on both sides of the ball to make a run at 10 wins.
Iowa State was picked to finish sixth in the Big 12 preseason media poll. (Petre Thomas / USA Today)
Iowa State
Four years ago, the Cyclones finished No. 9 in the country, going 9-3. They stumbled the next couple of seasons but found their stride again despite being extremely young in some key places in 2023. Now, they’re a more seasoned bunch with nine starters back on both sides of the ball, led by sophomore QB Rocco Becht, who Matt Campbell raves about from a talent standpoint and in terms of his makeup. Becht led Iowa State to wins last year at Kansas State and against Oklahoma State, throwing a combined six TDs and zero picks. Sophomore Abu Sama III is an explosive running back while rangy Jayden Higgins, a preseason All-Big 12 pick, leads a deep group of wideouts. Tight end Benjamin Brahmer is another promising young talent coming off an impressive true freshman season.
The Cyclones are salty on defense, led by the safety tandem of Beau Freyler (107 tackles, three INTs in 2023) and Jeremiah Cooper (five INTs). There are a lot of other really solid players back from what was the nation’s No. 7 red zone defense. Domonique Orange, a 6-4, 325-pound D-lineman who benches 450 pounds and has a vertical jump of 34 inches, has the potential to be a dominant force up front. Going to Iowa City to face the Hawkeyes is a big challenge. Just like going to West Virginia, Utah and Kansas.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff sleepers: 13 unranked teams to watch
UCF
Gus Malzahn knows what he’s doing when it comes to running the football, and his backfield this year has the potential to be lethal.
Arkansas transfer QB KJ Jefferson, a load at 6-3, 250, ran for 21 TDs and almost 1,900 yards in five seasons in the SEC. He’ll be joined by RJ Harvey, who ran for 1,416 yards and 16 TDs last year, and Toledo transfer Peny Boone, another horse at 242 pounds who was the 2023 MAC Offensive Player of the Year. Kobe Hudson (eight TD catches in 2023) and Xavier Townsend are good wideouts and tight end Randy Pittman Jr. looks like a budding star. The offense could be prolific.
The big question is if new DC Ted Roof gets this defense to slow down the opponent’s run game. The Knights ranked No. 122 last year in rushing defense. Cincinnati transfer Deshawn Pace should help, and so will a ground attack that keeps drives going. UCF has road trips to Fort Worth, Gainesville, Ames and Morgantown and hosts Utah and Arizona. Jefferson beat Florida in the Swamp last year by putting up almost 350 yards of offense.
It seems like an uphill climb but Malzahn’s teams have been able to get on some big runs, and this group feels like it could be capable of doing it too.
The Tigers ended 2023 on a roll beating Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl to cap off a 10-win season. Ryan Silverfield’s program retained its two hottest commodities in QB Seth Henigan (79 TD passes in three seasons) and 6-3, 225-pound Roc Taylor, a dominant wide receiver who ate up Mizzou last year for 143 yards in a narrow loss.
Memphis coaches are excited by what they’ve seen from their running backs this fall in camp; the group is starting to look like the old Tigers RB stable from when Mike Norvell was cranking out NFL backs. Mario Anderson, South Carolina’s leading rusher last year, has been sharp in camp as has versatile UMass transfer Greg Desrosiers Jr. Speedster Sutton Smith is another weapon.
Memphis will get a big test in September when the Tigers visit FSU and Norvell. Don’t write them off, but even if they lose there, they still have games at USF and Tulane which should be good tests for a team that has a big chip on its shoulder after having gone to bowl games 10 years in a row. The Tigers feel primed to win a conference title in 2024 and make a bigger statement.
Let’s start with running back Ashton Jeanty, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in 2023. He is arguably the best back in college football. Jeanty (159.7 all-purpose yards per game) is an elite player who NFL scouts love, especially his receiving skills.
The Broncos’ defense struggled last year and needs to improve, but there is some good talent there, led by DE Ahmed Hassanein (12.5 sacks and 16.5 TFLs in 2023) and LB Andrew Simpson.
The biggest wild card is how the QB situation evolves. USC transfer Malachi Nelson, a former five-star recruit, is being pushed by Maddux Madsen. Whoever emerges will have a really impressive group of skilled talent to take advantage of. The Broncos also have one of the best punter-kicker tandems in the FBS in James Ferguson-Reynolds (49.7 yards per punt) and Jonah Dalmas (10-of-11 from 40-plus yards on FGs).
The Broncos have to go to Oregon in Week 2 and visit UNLV and Wyoming but get both Washington State and Oregon State at home. The game against the Ducks means they might not have any more margin for error, but 11-2 with a respectable score against Oregon might top the rest of the non-Power 4.
(Top photo: Mike Watters / USA Today)