The short-lived revolt by Russia’s mercenary force has left questions about President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power and speculation his challenger Yevgeny Prigozhin is in mortal danger.
As part of the deal brokered by Belarus to stop the rebel fighters marching on Moscow, the chief of the Wagner private army agreed to go into exile in the neighbouring country.
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Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Putin.
A former CIA director says Prigozhin should “be very careful around open windows.”
Speaking on CNN, retired General David Petraeus was evidently referencing the number of prominent Russians who have died in unclear circumstances, including falls from windows, since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
“Prigozhin kept his life, but lost his Wagner Group,” Petraeus said. “And he should be very careful around open windows in his new surroundings in Belarus, where he’s going.”
Among those who’ve had suspicious deaths was the chairman of the board of Russia’s largest private oil company, which criticised Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. He fell out of a hospital window in September of last year.
The Kremlin has methodically cracked down on critics of the war, so the quick pardon for Prigozhin appeared to show Putin’s weakness. But many of those who have opposed or betrayed Putin have met their deaths months or years later, some even after leaving Russia.
Prigozhin has harshly criticised how the Russian military has conducted the war and went further on Friday by calling Putin’s very justification for the invasion a lie. Prigozhin accused the military of misleading Putin and Russian society by falsely claiming that Ukraine and NATO were planning to attack Russia.
Neither Putin nor Prigozhin have been heard from since the Belarus deal was announced on Saturday night.
Cracks emerge
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the weekend’s events as “extraordinary,” recalling that 16 months ago Putin appeared poised to seize the capital of Ukraine and now has had to defend Moscow from forces led by his onetime protege.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade,” Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
The Wagner forces’ largely unopposed, rapid advance also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security, with the rebels taking control of two military hubs and getting within 200 kilometres of Moscow before retreating.
A possible motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Defence Ministry’s demand, which Putin backed, that private companies sign contracts with it by July 1. Prigozhin had refused.
Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting could create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counteroffensive to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
People in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops on Saturday, a scene that played into Putin’s fear of a popular uprising.
Yet the rebellion fizzled quickly, in part because Prigozhin did not have the backing he expected from Russian security services.
Rostov appeared calm Sunday morning, with only tank tracks on the roads as a reminder of the Wagner fighters’ short-lived incursion.
By Sunday afternoon, troops had withdrawn from Moscow’s outskirts and traffic had returned to normal, although Red Square remained closed to visitors. On highways leading to Moscow, crews repaired roads ripped up just hours earlier in panic.
Anchors on state-controlled television stations cast the deal ending the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom and aired footage of Wagner troops retreating.
But the revolt and the deal that ended it has severely dented Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority.
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