(NewsNation) — Florida may brand itself a “free state” on signs welcoming motorists across its border, but for residents seeking to legally use or possess marijuana recreationally, that freedom has remained elusive.
However, that may change in November.
If 60% of voting Floridians approve Amendment 3 during the general election, the state will join 24 other states and the District of Columbia where recreational cannabis is legal.
If adopted, the state constitution would be amended to allow for residents ages 21 and older to possess up to 3 ounces of marijuana or walk into a dispensary and purchase cannabis and other pot-related items. Florida’s legislature will also have to add language for implementation, while lawsuits could tie the issue up in courts for months or years.
Yet reaching the supermajority threshold could prove to be a challenge. In addition to more than half of voters required to cast “yes” votes, turnout and the age of those casting ballots could all prove to be determining factors in whether recreational marijuana becomes legally acceptable.
“It’s the most balls in the air in terms of predicting turnout that I’ve seen,” Susan MacManus, a political analyst and a professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Florida, told NewsNation.
“That makes it very difficult when you’ve got these polls basically showing it could go in either direction, and the direction it goes is 100% contingent on who shows up,” she added.
Amendment 3’s record ad spending
A record $105.8 million has already been spent on the Amendment 3 ad campaigns, according to Ballotpedia. Before this year, the most spent on a similar measure was in 2016, when $27.14 million was spent on the effort to legalize recreational pot use in California.
Those supporting the Florida measure have contributed $90.4 million, while $14.6 million — of which $12 million came from billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin — has been donated to try to prevent the measure from passing.
By comparison, Ballotpedia shows that $56.7 million has been spent on ads for Amendment 4 in Florida, which legalizes abortion before viability or when it is necessary to protect the patient’s health. While the spending differences are staggering, so too is the approach the two sides of the legalized marijuana issue are taking in trying to reach voters.
Cannabis legalization advocates have not only flooded the airwaves by a 10-to-1 margin, MacManus said, but have also reached everyday voters with more common-sense language.
In a Florida electorate where millennials and Gen Z-aged voters make up 35%, TV ads opposing the measure have been too high-brow, she said, which is ineffective in reaching everyday voters. In terms of younger voters, MacManus said that demographic voting patterns are driven by issues rather than political parties, making the approach critical.
“For most Floridians, it’s really about freedom,” Morgan Hill, the spokesperson for Smart and Safe Florida, the organization behind getting Amendment 3 on the ballot, told NewsNation. “I don’t think there’s this stigma around marijuana in the way that there was 20 years ago.”
Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump on opposite sides of cannabis issue
Since the Florida Supreme Court approved the abortion and marijuana measures appearing on the ballot, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has pushed hard to keep recreational cannabis use illegal.
“It’s basically a license to have it anywhere you want,” DeSantis said, adding, “This state will start to smell like marijuana in our cities and towns.”
Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, supports Amendment 3, calling legalized marijuana inevitable but adding that if it is going to happen, it needs to happen correctly.
MacManus said that the divide comes down to Trump being in the middle of an active campaign while DeSantis is not.
By voting in favor of the measure, Trump is appealing to a younger base of voters, she said. With young voters expected to play a determining factor in which way the state sways politically on Election Day, MacManus said results up and down the ballot could be closer than some predict.
What issues about legalized marijuana could affect voting
Amendment 3 appears on the ballot eight years after 71% of Florida voters approved the use of medical marijuana.
Those, including older Florida residents suffering from chronic health issues, have trumpeted medical marijuana’s benefits. That attitude, along with claims by Smart and Safe Florida that the passage of the ballot measure would allow for the sale and use of safer cannabis, could help sway voters.
The group claims 1.8 million Floridians currently buy marijuana on the illicit market and that the amendment would allow for regulated products free of dangerous substances such as fentanyl, heroin and pesticides, Hill said.
The pot legalization advocate group also estimates that $431 million in projected new tax revenue would be generated if Amendment 3 passes, meaning more money for transportation, schools and other public services along with the 31,000 jobs the group says stems from the state’s marijuana industry.
However, opponents worry legal marijuana would lead to government-subsidized addiction issues and open up the market to children who would have more access to the substance if made legal.
Others have expressed concern that the measure creates a monopoly for cannabis companies like Trulieve, which funded the initiative. Opponents also say a marijuana monopoly would destroy the state’s burgeoning hemp industry and run growers and producers out of business.
Yet, even with all of the pros and cons, the final result of voting remains anyone’s guess with just more than a month before Election Day.
Hill says her group likes the direction polling is trending but insists plenty of work remains to get the initiative to the finish line. MacManus says regardless of what polls show currently, everything remains up in the air in ways like never before
“Right now, everything looks tight,” she said.