DLF, Macrotech, Godrej Properties, Sunteck, Brigade and Kolte Patil are some of the stock picks suggested by analysts.
“The real estate segment often goes through an up-cycle of five to eight years and a market down cycle of 10-12 years,” said Gaurav Dua, senior vice president at Sharekhan.
“Right now, the segment is just coming out from a downswing and is on the cusp of 4-5 years of upside.”
The BSE Realty Index, which comprises shares of top property developers, gained 2.13% on Friday and has run up 51.51% in the past six months. The Sensex has moved up 14.36% in this period.
Macrotech has jumped 76.14%, DLF is up 57.62%, Godrej Properties has gained 51.29% in the past six months.
“The stocks have rallied because of good property sales in 2022 and the first half of 2023 being very good for the real estate segment. There is high demand but limited supply,” said Sneha Poddar, assistant vice president, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “These real estate companies have an inventory overhead of 18-19 months which can come down soon if the resilient demand continues.”The domestic real estate sector recorded record sales of 3.47 lakh crore in FY23.
Analysts said investors are betting on record property sales and reversal of interest rates over the next two years to boost their prospects.
“The macro environment would improve further with interest rates likely to go down by 1.5-2% over the next 18-24 months,” said Dua. “The firming up of property prices, new project launches and deleveraging of balance sheets also augur well for the sector.”
Despite the recent run-up, share valuations may not still be expensive, said analysts. “Real estate stocks are still trading at a discount to their NAV (Net Asset Value) currently, and are not very expensive relative to other mid-cap and small-cap stocks,” said Mohit Agarwal, vice president, IIFL Institutional Equities. “Real estate is an operationally exciting space and while the first-half of 2023 has been decent, the second half of the year post ‘shradh’, in the third and fourth quarters could see strong project launches.”
Investors must hold on to their bets over the next three to five years, he said.