RAPTORS MAILBAG: Gradey Dick’s leap, tank for Cooper Flagg?

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Here’s the second part of our pre-training camp Toronto Raptors/NBA mailbag.

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Since the first edition ran earlier this week the Raptors, as part of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, moved to potentially becoming solely owned by Rogers Communications. Rogers will own 75% by mid-2025 if the deal with Bell gets approved by regulators and the various leagues involved.

For now, Larry Tanenbaum still owns 20% and that’s a good thing as he’s the human face of the conglomerate and has been for many years now.

Will he stay on board in some capacity? Try to add a second Toronto NHL team with the billions he’ll be getting if he sells his stake (he already sold 5%)? Will Bell continue to get out of the sports ownership business (the company is a part-owner of the Montreal Canadiens and has strategic partnerships with three other NHL teams)?

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The blockbuster news has prompted an unprecedented Part 3 of the mailbag, coming early next week.

From Cam: “What does a realistic successful season look like for Gradey Dick? I’m encouraged by the added strength he appears to have.”

RW: If Dick can replicate anything close to his February numbers, that would be beyond expectations for his sophomore season. He averaged 11 points on 55% shooting, including a sizzling 49% from three-point range in 12 games that month, all coming off the bench.

His shooting sunk considerably in March before rebounding in seven games in April, but keep in mind Dick’s best play and his March slump both coincided with the availability of Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Those two crucial Raptors were healthy for all of February, but not in March.

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Even though Dick didn’t start alongside them, he played minutes with them and it also allowed him to light up reserve units.

Klay Thompson, the best-case scenario on offence for Dick one day, took a leap in Year 2 and became a full-time starter, even though his shooting accuracy slipped. He was 22 that year, like Dick will be.

Rip Hamilton, another off-ball-moving standout, doubled his scoring in his Age 22, second season, even with his three-point percentage cratering. Tyler Herro, who was a year younger, but like Dick also a No. 13 pick, wasn’t really any better as a sophomore, but thrived in Year 3.

From Karl Zenith Nieva: “Will the Raps do a soft tank for the Coop stakes?”

RW: It will be tempting, but if everyone is healthy, they have too much talent to out-tank the NBA’s true dregs.

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That said, unless this team completely turns around its bad injury and off-court luck from a season ago and the core all play over 70 games (or if someone like Poeltl is traded), they still should be in the bottom eight and will have a shot at super-prospect Cooper Flagg, or Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper (brother of former Raptor Ron Harper Jr.), or V.J. Edgecombe. All likely would have gone first in the most recent draft.

Atlanta just won the lottery from the 10th spot at just 3% odds of doing so. If the Raptors finish eighth-worst, they’d have double those odds at No. 1 and better than a 1-in-4 shot at moving into the Top 4 (25.2%).

A soft tank could come into play in the final six weeks of the year or so with minor injuries leading to shut-downs if the team hasn’t impressed and is barely even in the play-in race.

Best-case for the franchise is getting into the Top 4 of this draft.

From B, Viddy: “Which players expected to be on the Raptors roster to start the season are most likely to not be on the roster at the end of the season (traded/waived)?”

RW: I’d put Bruce Brown at 90% to not finish the season as a Raptor. They picked up his option to let him rebuild some value after a knee injury ruined his time with Toronto (and even impacted him while he was still with Denver). Unless Toronto is a surprise team and makes a playoff charge, Brown will be dealt by the trade deadline or bought out to get young players minutes if there’s no trade to be made.

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Chris Boucher seems like a 75% bet to be gone, as he is on an expiring contract and wasn’t accepted as a fit by Darko Rajakovic in the head coach’s offensive system.

Poeltl is the big wildcard. The team is considerably worse without him and might want to recoup the lottery pick it lost. But maybe that will happen in the off-season. Of course, they could also keep him around in the hopes that the 2025-26 Raptors can earn a playoff spot. That would be hard to do without Poeltl as the team’s centre prospects need time to develop.

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