I read the comments, and you laughed at me.
Well, guess what? It’s that time of year for you to do it again.
If you missed last year’s installment of Oddly Specific Predictions, I nailed about 33 percent of the nearly 170 predictions I made in mid-August, a few weeks before the season started. That’s almost as good as Tony Gwynn’s career batting average!
Let’s go over my greatest hits:
• I told you the ACC would get left out of the four-team College Football Playoff and that Duke would upset mighty Clemson in the opener. And it happened.
• I told you Michigan’s running back duo of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards would combine to run for 32 touchdowns on the Wolverines’ way back to the College Football Playoff — and then they went out and did exactly that.
• I told you Texas would win the Big 12, and you scoffed — and the Longhorns won it! Ditto for Pac-12 champion Washington. Oh yeah, that’s right, I also told you Michael Penix Jr. would beat Oregon twice on his way to the Heisman ceremony.
• Brock Bowers did become the first two-time Mackey Award winner. But he wasn’t a Heisman finalist.
• Manny Diaz coached the best sack machine in the Big Ten and was hired away by an ACC team. But it was Duke and not Boston College — as I predicted — that plucked Diaz from James Franklin’s offices.
So, let’s skip the 67 percent of the predictions I missed (I’m looking at you Georgia Bulldogs for letting me down on a three-peat) and get to this year’s forecast. We used the coaches preseason Top 25 poll again as a guide.
And one note before we continue: Colorado is not ranked in the preseason (rightfully so), so there was nowhere else to put this: Travis Hunter, the Buffaloes’ two-way star, will win the 2024 Heisman Trophy.
1. Georgia
Carson Beck drives a snazzy Lamborghini these days. The road to another SEC title is bumpy with trips to three opponents in the top six of this poll, a neutral-site game against Clemson in the opener and a visit from $8 million man Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee. I’m betting Beck, a Heisman finalist, will lose one of those five games on a late pick but still lead the SEC in passing yardage. Eight of his touchdown passes will go to Miami transfer Colbie Young. Georgia will then exact revenge on an opponent to be revealed later in the SEC title game on its way to a top-two seed in the CFP and a trip to the national title game.
No undefeated teams in college football this year. Ryan Day’s squad — like Kirby Smart’s — will suffer a loss early in the season to a conference rival and rebound to win the league title with a victory over the team that beat it in the regular season. The Buckeyes will undoubtedly improve to top-10 status in scoring offense and average at least 38 points per game with the players they’ve brought in. Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins will lead the team in rushing yards (1,000-plus) and TDs (11), and freshman Jeremiah Smith (55 catches, 700-plus yards, six TDs) will finish second on the team in receiving. The real reason Ohio State will earn the No. 1 seed in the CFP — and win its first title since 2014 — is its top-five scoring defense, led by Thorpe Award winner Caleb Downs.
3. Oregon
The Ducks will get to play in the Big Ten title game thanks to a three-point win in Eugene over Ohio State on Oct. 12. Dillon Gabriel will be a Heisman finalist after leading the Big Ten in passing and combining for 42 touchdowns. The Ducks offense will average 42 points per game, and once the season ends, in the CFP quarterfinals, 35-year-old offensive coordinator Will Stein will be hired away to be the head coach of another Big Ten program starving for offense.
The Longhorns will remain nationally relevant as they transition to the SEC. UTSA transfer Trey Moore will win the SEC Defensive Player of the Year award (with his 11 sacks), and the Longhorns defense will be even stingier (16 points per game) than last year (18.9 per game). An FBS-leading 28 turnovers forced will be the key to it all. There will be another hiccup against rival Oklahoma on Oct. 12, but a win at home against Georgia the following week will lead to an SEC title game appearance and eventually the CFP quarterfinals.
Kalen DeBoer will get the Crimson Tide into the 12-team Playoff despite losses to Georgia in September and Oklahoma in November. Jalen Milroe and Washington transfer Germie Bernard will hook up for nine touchdown passes during the regular season, including one late to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl. That earns the Tide a first-round Playoff road game against a Big Ten school to be mentioned later and a date with Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Crimson Tide’s season will end there, but they will get revenge against the Buckeyes in the offseason, swiping a couple of recruits late to finish with the No. 1 recruiting class.
Texas A&M transfer Walter Nolen and Florida transfer Princely Umanmielen will be a terror to deal with on the defensive line. They’re why the Rebels will lead the SEC in sacks. But there’s just something about the other side of the line of scrimmage — and losing Judkins to Ohio State — that has me squeamish. The four offensive linemen Lane Kiffin pulled in via the portal weren’t necessarily highly graded by Pro Football Focus. I expect quarterback Jaxson Dart will be very good (3,500-plus passing yards, 35 combined TDs). But when push comes to shove, offensive line cohesion (35 sacks allowed) will cost the Rebels a spot in the CFP.
The Irish are one of only four teams, according to BetMGM, with an over/under win total of 10.5 or higher. After losing at Texas A&M on opening night, Notre Dame will run the table and earn the No. 5 seed in the CFP behind Heisman finalist Riley Leonard. The Duke transfer should thrive with a better collection of receivers than Sam Hartman had last year. I’ve got Leonard throwing 27 touchdowns and running for 10 more. Safety Xavier Watts, coming off a nation-leading seven picks, will lead another top-10 scoring defense for the Irish, who will get to the CFP semifinals after beating the Big 12 champion in the quarterfinals.
We’ll have to see how the Connor Stalions investigation (and Netflix special released on Aug. 27) complicates the situation for the Wolverines and Sherrone Moore. But assuming nothing short-circuits Moore’s availability to coach, the Wolverines will be the third and final Big Ten team to make the CFP, where their season will end with a loss at home to Alabama. Edwards will win the Doak Walker Award (1,500-plus yards, 28 TDs), and an entirely new starting offensive line will win the Joe Moore Award. Great defense is what will get Michigan in the postseason, though. Maryland transfer Jaishawn Barham — 100-plus tackles, five turnovers forced — makes the biggest impact of the new arrivals.
No, the Nittany Lions will not make the 12-team Playoff. It’s not that Franklin’s team won’t make a strong case. The defense will be the league’s stingiest against the run again and Abdul Carter will lead the Big Ten with 11 sacks. Penn State’s issue is the receiver position. Even with Julian Fleming performing well (60 catches, 800-plus yards, nine TDs), it’s still not enough to beat Ohio State in early November. We’ll hear from an angry Franklin in December when those seedings are announced and his 10-win team is left out.
Last year’s Playoff snub will fuel edge rusher Patrick Payton (11 sacks) to win the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year award. Alabama transfer Malik Benson will be productive (50 catches, 700-plus yards, eight TDs). But FSU’s passing offense will not be as efficient (second in the ACC last season) with DJ Uiagalelei and the collection of pass catchers he’s got around him. That will not stop FSU from beating Clemson at home in October, returning to the ACC title game and making the 12-team Playoff field.
Patrick Payton will have a standout season for Florida State. (Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)
Luther Burden is going to put up huge numbers (100 catches, 1,300-plus yards, 15 TDs) and become the first Missouri Tiger to win the Biletnikoff Award. Brady Cook will cook (3,500-plus yards, 30 TDs), but Missouri’s pass defense will be the reason this team loses three SEC games and misses the 12-team Playoff. That’s not to say Clemson transfer Toriano Pride (SEC-leading five INTs) will not make some plays.
You have to go back to 2016 to find the last time a Brian Kelly-coached team didn’t win at least 10 games and finish in the top 16 of the Associated Press poll. Harold Perkins Jr. will lead a vastly improved Tigers defense under new coordinator Blake Baker (22 points per game) and rack up seven sacks. Left tackle Will Campbell will be the Outland Trophy winner. But the reason LSU will win only nine regular-season games again and miss the 12-team field is its offense. The Tigers will go from special (45.5 points per game) under Jayden Daniels to simply good (33 per game) under Garrett Nussmeier.
Kyle Whittingham’s team would have made a hypothetical 12-team Playoff field in three of the last five years. Cam Rising, Micah Bernard and Brant Kuithe will get Utah in the real one this December. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some bumps in the road for the Utes, who will lose at Oklahoma State in the regular season before punching the Big 12’s only ticket into the Playoff field with a league crown. Kuithe (60 catches, 600-plus yards, nine TDs) wins the Mackey Award.
14. Clemson
The Tigers haven’t won fewer than 10 games in consecutive seasons since 2009 and 2010, but it feels as though Clemson might be headed down that path since the first five games are no picnic and the transfer portal is a nonfactor with Dabo Swinney in charge. Clemson is really young on the D-line (six combined career starts), but the defense will still be top five in the league against the run (110 yards allowed per game) and points allowed (21 per game) with Barrett Carter (100-plus tackles) and T.J. Parker (seven sacks) in the front seven. Cade Klubnik will improve from 10th in the league in QB rating to top five, but the Achilles’ heel of the offense is the line. Too many sacks allowed (30) will keep Clemson out of the ACC title game and the Playoff.
15. Tennessee
Here’s a prediction you can take to the bank: Iamaleava will win the SEC Freshman of the Year award with Johnny Manziel-type passing numbers (3,700-plus yards, 27 TDs). James Pearce Jr. will be good for 10 sacks again before landing in the top 10 of the NFL Draft in April. The schedule, though, is challenging, with trips to Oklahoma and Georgia, a visit from Alabama and an important SEC-ACC matchup with NC State in Charlotte on Sept. 7. I’ve got the Vols losing three of those games (mostly because of their secondary), finishing with nine wins and landing on the outside looking in at a Playoff spot.
16. Oklahoma
When I put the names of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Clemson, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss and Penn State into a hat, with one of them earning the final CFP at-large spot, the Sooners came up aces (that’s how the Playoff selection process is done, by the way). It sounds nuts, but Oklahoma is going to start 9-0 and then backdoor its way into the CFP as the No. 11 seed despite losses to two SEC rivals in November. Jackson Arnold will be good and put up slightly better numbers (4,000-plus yards of total offense, 45 total TDs) in his first year as a full-time starter than Gabriel did last year. But Brent Venables’ top-20 scoring defense (19 points per game) will be the key to the Sooners’ success.
Between Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens, and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, the Wildcats are going to lead the Big 12 in rushing with more than 230 yards per game. The pass rush is the question mark. Finishing with fewer than 20 sacks as a team and a loss at Iowa State in the regular-season finale is what ultimately hurts K-State in its Playoff push.
18. Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy and Whittingham at Utah are the second-longest-tenured coaches at the FBS level (after Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz). Good news: We’ll get two OSU-Utah showdowns, the second in the Big 12 title game. Ollie Gordon II will not win the Doak Walker Award again but will run for 1,400-plus yards, score 22 TDs and lead a better Cowboys scoring offense (32 points per game). What keeps the Pokes out of the CFP will be turnovers (they’ll have at least 21 again) and no head-to-head matchup on the schedule with Oklahoma.
The Hurricanes are long overdue to live up to the hype — and they finally will. Rueben Bain leads a very deep Miami front seven with seven sacks, and the Canes defense finishes in the top three in the league in points allowed (20 per game). Cam Ward, picked as the ACC’s Preseason Player of the Year, will become only the fourth player since 2010 to follow through and win it at the end of the season. Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez plays the biggest role in leading the Hurricanes to their first ACC title with three rushing TDs in a rematch victory over Florida State in Charlotte.
Duke won 17 games over the last two seasons. Texas A&M won 12. And now with Mike Elko in town, the defensive-minded Aggies will knock off Notre Dame on opening night to start the new era off with a bang. Conner Weigman finally being healthy (3,100-plus passing yards, 25 TDs) will help A&M get to nine regular-season wins. But Purdue transfer Nic Scourton — and his nation-leading 22 tackles for loss — will be the primary reason why Texas A&M goes into its regular-season finale at home against rival Texas with a chance to play for the SEC title. The Longhorns — on a late TD pass from backup Arch Manning — will slip past the Aggies in the best regular-season game of the 2024 season.
There were only five players who put up a better QB rating against winning FBS programs than Noah Fifita, and only two are still playing college ball: Beck at Georgia and Liberty’s Kaidon Salter. Don’t be surprised when Fifita finishes with the second-best QB rating in the country behind Beck this coming season. I’ve got Tetairoa McMillan (100 catches, 1,300-plus yards, 12 TDs) down to finish runner-up to Missouri’s Burden for the Biletnikoff Award. What holds Arizona back from winning the Big 12 is its inability to protect Fifita in crucial moments (30 sacks allowed).
22. NC State
Three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year Grayson McCall and Duke transfer Jordan Waters will ignite the Wolfpack offense. McCall will complete nearly 70 percent of his attempts and throw for 2,700 yards and 25 touchdown passes (what he averaged in his three healthy seasons with the Chanticleers), and Waters will become NC State’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Reggie Gallaspy in 2018. Kevin Concepcion will star in a lead role (90 catches, 1,000-plus receiving yards, 12 TDs). But Butkus winner Payton Wilson will be missed on defense, and another nine-win season in Raleigh keeps the Pack out of the ACC title game and CFP.
USC is 11-0 over the last two seasons when it has forced at least two turnovers and 8-8 when it hasn’t. We’re going to say the Trojans have four games in which they force at least two turnovers. They’ll go 4-4 in the other eight to finish 8-4 in their first season in the Big Ten. Miller Moss will throw for nearly the same amount of yards (3,400-plus) and touchdowns (28) as Caleb Williams did last season, and the defense will improve on some horrific numbers in points allowed (27 per game, 70th nationally). It’ll count as a small step forward for Lincoln Riley’s program.
Most of the excitement surrounding Lance Leipold’s team involves quarterback Jalon Daniels. I’m keeping the faith he’ll be healthy and productive (3,000-plus total yards and 30 total touchdowns). Not having Utah, Oklahoma State and Arizona on the conference slate will help Kansas get to nine wins, but bad red zone defense remains the issue. There will be a slight improvement (TDs on 63 percent of trips), but not nearly enough to punch a ticket to the Big 12 title game or end the 15-game losing skid to K-State.
Yes, Iowa will have a top-10 scoring defense again, and linebacker Jay Higgins is going to rack up more than 150 tackles. But I’m going out on a limb and saying the Hawkeyes make a huge jump from 15.4 points per game to nearly 28 this fall on offense. It’s not that Iowa’s quarterback — either Cade McNamara or Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan — is suddenly going to fling it around the yard. It’s that the schedule — outside of a trip to Ohio State — is offense-friendly and a better play caller is in charge in Tim Lester. It’ll equate to a 10-win season for the fourth time dating back to 2019, but no trip to the Big Ten title game or CFP because of whatever weird tiebreaker rule the league selects.
(Photos of Arch Manning, Ryan Day: Scott Wachter / USA Today, Kyle Robertson/ Columbus Dispatch / USA Today Network)