Nifty: Traders see modest Nifty moves in September

Mumbai: Traders held back from carrying forward aggressive bets on Nifty futures to September on Thursday – when the August contracts expired – on expectations of modest moves in the benchmark index in the near future. Though the index closed below a key support of 19,260, analysts are not anticipating it would fall below 19,000 for now, prompting traders to restrict their wagers to specific stocks or themes.

The rollover – process of carrying forward index and stock futures positions from an expiring derivatives series to the subsequent ones – in Nifty futures to September stood at 78% as against the three-month average of 82%. Market participants watch trends in rollover closely as they are an indicator of traders’ sentiment in the near term. Analysts said the lower rollover points to unwinding of bullish bets.

“Major part of rollovers to September has been stock specific because the broader market is lacking triggers for a big move in the near term,” said Sriram Valyudhan, vice-president, alternative research, IIFL Securities.

He expects the Nifty to trade in the range of 19,000 to 19,600 but there could be some profit taking in mid-caps and small-caps.”

NSE’s Nifty fell 93 points or 0.48% to close at 19,253. BSE’s Sensex declined 255 points or 0.39% to end at 64,831.

Nifty closed below the key support level of 19,260 on Thursday, which has been acting as a strong support since the last three weeks, said Ashwin Ramani, derivatives & technical analyst, Samco Securities.

The rollover in Bank Nifty futures to September stood at 77% as against the three-month average of 78%.In single-stock futures, the rollover was in line with the three month average of 93%.

“A follow down move from this level can lead to initiation of fresh short positions and drag the Index until 18,900 levels, where its next visible support is placed,” he said. Volatility Index, or VIX, gained 2.2% to 12.06, suggesting traders are not entirely ruling out the likelihood of sharp swings in the market. FPIs net sold shares to the tune of 2,973 crore, while their domestic counterparts were buyers worth 4,382 crore. The larger-than-normal outflows are partly on account of the impact of reshuffling of portfolios with changes in MSCI Global Index kicking in on Thursday.

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