RAJESH PALVIYA
HEAD TECHNICAL DERIVATIVES, AXIS SECURITIES
Where is the Nifty headed?
The index has formed a long bullish candle on weekly chart, engulfing the previous weekly candle and closing above the previous week’s high, indicating a positive bias. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 24,200, it would likely witness buying, leading the index towards the 24,500-24,600 levels. Conversely, if the index breaks below 23,900, it would likely witness selling, pushing it towards the 23,800-23,600 levels. What should Investors do?
Stocks expected to show bullishness include Reliance, ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Grasim, Praj Industries, Biocon, Apollo Tyres, Tata Motors, and BEL. Consider a moderately bullish strategy using a Bull-Call Spread for the July 4 weekly expiry. This involves purchasing one lot of the 24,100 strike Calls at a premium of Rs 134 and selling one lot of the 24,400 strike Calls at a premium of Rs 35. If Nifty closes above 24,199 on expiry, the strategy will begin making a profit. While the risk is limited here, so are potential profits.
APURVA SHAH
HEAD OF MARKET RESEARCH, SAMCO SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed next week?
Nifty crossed the lifetime high and a psychological mark of 24,000 last week. With this, the index has recorded 24 new all-time high closings in 2024. The bulls have a firm grip on the index and don’t seem in any mood to let it go in July, which is the best month for markets. In 9 out of the last 10 years, the index has closed on a positive note with an average gain of 3.3%, which is the highest among all months. The index has broken out of a broadening megaphone pattern which indicates higher levels of 24,500 may be coming in July. However, on an immediate basis, the index is likely to consolidate and may even give up some of the recent gains and slip lower to the 50% retracement support of 23,762, drawn from the low of 23,350 to the high of 24,174.
What should investors do?
Investors should follow a buy-on-dips approach. One can go long at 23,762-23,664 with a stop loss at 23,500 for a target of 24,500. Prefer stocks from the mid-cap universe like KPIT Tech, Gulf Oil Lubricants, CE Info Systems and Mahindra Logistics for trading.
RAHUL SHARMA
HEAD- TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, JM FINANCIAL SERVICES
Where is the Nifty headed this week?
Nifty formed a large bullish engulfing candle on weekly charts and closed the week and month on a thumping note above the 24,000 mark. Nifty options chain is suggesting open interest concentration at 24,000 Puts and 24,500 Calls, while the Put-Call ratio, which was overheated at 1.49 on Friday, cooled off to 1.17. We, however, advise caution on fresh longs as risk reward is diminishing at higher levels. We expect Nifty to broadly enter into two months of time correction once the current momentum dies out in the next few days. Support levels are 23,985 and 23,665, with resistance at 24,175 and 24,500.
What should Investors do?
Investors are advised to start taking profits in areas where markets have outperformed recently, like private banks. Positive on PSUs and pharma. Buy Cipla at Rs 1,480. The stock saw a strong support area at Rs 1,465. Buy Tata Motors at Rs 990 with a stop loss at Rs 948.