Nifty: How to trade Nifty ahead of monthly expiry? Kunal Shah does some chart reading

NEW DELHI: If Nifty fails to sustain above 19250, it’s likely to experience a significant downward movement, says Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivatives Analyst at LKP Securities. “This potential downside could extend towards the levels of 19000 and 18900. In this scenario, a cautious approach is advised, considering the prevailing selling sentiment,” he says in an interview. Edited excerpts:

RIL, which ended the week down over 3%, was the biggest drag on Nifty during the week even when buying was seen in financials and IT stocks. How does the Nifty trade setup look ahead of the monthly expiry?
During the entire August series, the index has encountered consistent selling pressure from elevated levels. A notable resistance zone was established around 19500-19700, where the bears exerted their influence. This has resulted in a bearish undertone for the index.The critical level to monitor is 19250. If the index fails to sustain above this mark, it’s likely to experience a significant downward movement. This potential downside could extend towards the levels of 19000 and 18900. In this scenario, a cautious approach is advised, considering the prevailing selling sentiment.

Suzlon was in focus once again as it rallied 13% in the week. What would be your trading strategy here?
Suzlon has experienced a robust rally over the past few months and currently maintains its position above critical moving averages. This upward momentum has propelled the stock beyond its previous 4-week high, and its ability to sustain this level is a strong indicator of its bullish sentiment.

An effective strategy would involve adopting a “buy on dip” approach around Rs 21-20.5 price range. The stock’s support is evident at Rs 19 level, providing a potential cushion for bullish movements. With momentum on its side, the stock could potentially see an ascent towards the Rs 24-25 price levels. It’s important to monitor price movements closely and factor in the inherent volatility in trading decisions.

Give us your top 3-4 trading ideas for the week.

BUY Rushil Decor at Rs 285, SL- Rs 265, TGT Rs 320/333
Rushil Decor has demonstrated an impressive breakout on its daily chart, accompanied by a notable surge in trading volumes. This breakout is further supported by the stock surpassing its previous week’s high, reinforcing its upward momentum.Examining the weekly chart reveals a promising Morning Star pattern formation at crucial support levels. This pattern is widely regarded as a bullish reversal signal, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment.The stock finds support around the 265 price level, which acts as a foundation for potential price movements. Considering the positive signals, the stock’s upside targets could lie in the range of 320 to 333.
BUY RattanIndia Enterprises at Rs 55, SL- Rs 49, TGT Rs 65/71
RattanIndia has made a robust breakout on both its daily and weekly charts, breaching a falling trendline, and this move is accompanied by a sharp surge in trading volumes. This breakout signifies a potential shift in market dynamics. The momentum indicator RSI has surpassed the 60 level, underlining the presence of bullish momentum. This suggests that the stock’s current trend has the potential to continue in an upward direction. The stock has a support zone in the range of 50 to 48 levels, which can act as a cushion for any potential downside movements. On the upside, the stock’s targets could be around 65 to 71 levels. As always, keeping a close eye on market trends and risk management remains crucial for informed trading decisions.

BUY Indiabulls Real Estate at Rs 68, SL-63, TGT- Rs 85/91
Indiabulls Real Estate has displayed a Morning Star pattern on its weekly chart, a bullish reversal pattern indicating a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment in the stock. The momentum indicator RSI has undergone a positive crossover, confirming the buy signal and suggesting increasing buying interest in the stock. A lower-end support level is evident around 63, which could act as a cushion against potential downside movements. Looking ahead, the stock’s upside potential targets are projected at 85 to 91 levels.

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