Game-breaking trade bait, bridge-deal candidates, and future superstars who need to be locked up ASAP.
The 2023 class of restricted free agents offers a smorgasbord of situations.
And while several potential ’23 RFAs avoided the drama and uncertainty by signing in advance of contract expiration (Mathew Barzal, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Roope Hintz, Cole Caufield, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Dylan Cozens, Matt Boldy and Stuart Skinner among them), plenty of intriguing young talents remain unsigned into July.
As these RFAs look to bank off their platform seasons and owners wrestle with slow-to-rise salary cap, tense negotiations and arbitration cases are still on deck.
Ottawa settled its Alex DeBrincat drama with a trade-and-sign to Detroit, but the situations in New York and Anaheim remain interesting.
Qualifying offers have been issued, so Group 2 RFAs are now free to sign offer sheets and arbitration cases have been filed.
Hearings will be held from July 20 to Aug. 4.
Here is where things stand with the top 12 RFAs of 2023, following the frenzy of early July.
1. Vince Dunn
Age: 26
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $4 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: 2019 Stanley Cup champion. Superb puck-mover. Improving defensively. Exploded for 64 points from the back end. Skates nearly 24 minutes per night. Power-play facilitator.
The latest: Seattle’s premier offensive defenceman has played a significant role in the NHL’s newest franchise rapid ascent to a legit playoff squad.
A healthy Dunn found his top-four niche and should finally secure the long-term contract that eluded him in St. Louis.
“Dunner’s just playing with confidence, and he’s doing a lot of the little things,” coach Dave Hakstol said. “When you look at the way he’s getting us out of the zone, he’s defending well and he’s using his feet, he’s playing fast on our exits. He’s doing a really good job there, and that’s a credit to him.”
Dunn and GM Ron Francis held brief discussions midseason on an extension but, as Jeff Marek reported in a January edition of 32 Thoughts, opted to delay serious negotiations until June.
Jamie Oleksiak is Seattle’s highest-paid D-man at $4.6 million. Adam Larsson makes $4 million.
Remember: Francis chose Dunn over game-breaker Vladimir Tarasenko in the expansion draft.
It’s time for Dunn to become the highest-paid defenceman in Seattle.
Francis addressed the possibility of Dunn re-signing following the Kraken’s second-round defeat: “We’re hopeful, yeah. … Usually, if you get a deal where the team is not happy and the player is not happy, that’s probably a fair deal. So, we’ll see if we can strive to get to that point.”
Dunn expressed to reporters his desire to re-sign and remain in Seattle.
“Ever since I put the Seattle Kraken jersey on, it’s been really special for me,” Dunn said after the team’s playoff elimination. “They’ve given me tremendous opportunity in this organization, and I want nothing but to continue to wear that jersey for many years to come.”
With Carson Soucy gone, and Kole Lind and Cale Fleury settled, Seattle’s top priority is taking care of the Dunn file.
Arbitration is set for July 24.
2. Troy Terry
Age: 25
Position: Centre / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $1.45 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: 2017 world junior gold medallist. 2018 Olympian for Team USA. Erupted for 37 goals and 67 points in 2021-22. Anaheim’s 2022 and 2023 All-Star Game representative.
The latest: Rebuilding Anaheim must seek out important pieces of the future while retaining the young talent in the stable.
That means finding a path to re-signing Terry, whose solid back-to-back seasons and arbitration rights give the top-line forward leverage heading into this summer.
Terry is wrapping up a three-year bridge deal at a bargain $1.45-million price tag, and GM Pat Verbeek chose to wait until season’s end to drill down on negotiations.
Terry’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, has been keeping mum on the file, letting his client’s performance do all the talking.
This will be a fascinating situation to watch considering Verbeek has a handful of emerging stars up for raises. Cap space is not an obstacle should an (unlikely) offer sheet arrive.
How Verbeek chooses to allot his dollars will shape the future of this squad.
We asked the GM about his stud RFAs at the draft, and Verbeek replied simply: “I don’t talk about contracts.”
Terry has filed for arbitration. The case goes Aug. 2.
Age: 22
Position: Centre / Left wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: 2021 world junior gold mediallist. Top-10 draft pick. Skills for days. NHL23 video game coverboy. One of the NHL’s most marketable young stars. Two-time 20-goal, 60-point man.
The latest: Just like teammate Terry, Zegras played the waiting game as GM Verbeek plans to map out his off-season salary plan.
“Since (Verbeek) came out publicly that he wants to wait until the end of the year, we didn’t talk contract, and I’m good with it,” Brisson, Zegras’s agent, told Pierre LeBrun. “I’m fine either way.”
The growing trend league-wide is to skip the bridge and go long-term with talented young forwards (Jack Hughes, Nick Suzuki, Matt Boldy, Dylan Cozens, Cole Caufield et al.).
But in the case of Verbeek — who is new to the office and without much of a signing track record — we don’t yet have a handle on his philosophy when it comes to building.
Thus far, he’s only torn down.
“We’re going to have to see how their years go this year and then obviously we’re going to have to get some new contracts out,” Verbeek said mid-season.
“Having flexibility with the cap is vital moving ahead. At the end of the day, there’s only so much money to go around. We have to make sure we can all fit it in.”
Cap space is no issue in Anaheim.
Investing in the right pieces to start constructing a contender is paramount.
If Verbeek does wish to give Zegras term, Boldy and Cozens’ deals (seven years around $7 million per) could be used as comparables.
Age: 23
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $863,333
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: Top-10 draft pick. Puck-moving right shot. Back-to-back 40-point campaigns. Skates 18:30 per night. Meaningful contributor in Oilers’ 2022 and 2023 playoff runs. No. 1 power-play quarterback.
The latest: Bouchard’s jolt up the Oilers’ depth chart last season had many predicting (us included) he would assume a stranglehold running point on the world’s greatest power-play unit in 2022-23 — and reap the rewards of all those 5-on-4 points that come with playing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Well, Bouchard’s ascendance wasn’t quite so smooth. His regular-season production dipped slightly, and his defensive game suffered bouts of inconsistency.
That said, 23-year-old D-men with Bouchard’s pedigree who can log top-four minutes and blast a point shot aren’t easy to come across. The deadline departure of Tyson Barrie opens more PP minutes for Bouchard to seize, and the arrival of Mattias Ekholm alleviates some D-zone pressure.
This is the kid’s shot to thrive.
“It is a little bit of an opportunity for me,” Bouchard said. “Hopefully I can take it and run with it.”
Save for Bouchard signing an offer sheet, Ken Holland holds the hammer.
Dangling the performance incentive that comes with a bridge contract is the safest route for both parties, considering the Oilers’ tight cap situation in 2023-24 and a leap in the ceiling set for 2024-25.
Given Bouchard’s 17-point postseason, Holland may have seen enough to prefer long-term. The math, however, makes that impossible.
Bouchard’s agents, Dave Gagner and Jeff Jackson, have smartly waited this one out and now must find a doable number on a short-term deal.
“There’s no doubt he’s getting a raise,” Holland said. “We’ll find a solution.”
Age: 25
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $1.8 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: First-round draft pick. Two-time world juniors medallist and one-time world juniors all-star. Gagarin Cup champion. Has posted a winning record in all four NHL seasons. Posted career highs in wins (27) and save percentage (.919) with Toronto.
The latest: Unqualified by Washington as an RFA, Samsonov signed a one-year, prove-it contract in Toronto knowing he’d have a legitimate shot to take the net from the accomplished but injury-prone Matt Murray.
By the All-Star break, the Maple Leafs’ younger, cheaper option had done just that.
Samsonov put up better numbers and stayed healthier than his tandem mate, making him Toronto’s current No. 1 and a sure bet for a hard-earned raise this summer.
“He really wanted it to be a one-year kind of show-me, bet-on-yourself type deal, which is not always common with players coming off of this shock of being non-QO’d when he wasn’t expecting it,” ex-Leafs GM Kyle Dubas said. “That was impressive to me.”
Samsonov loves Toronto, no question. But the sides did not discuss an extension in-season.
Word is, he wants term.
“I want to stay here,” a smiling Samsonov said at his end-of-season meeting with the press. “It’s no surprise here, for everybody. We’ll see. This not my work anymore.
“I love my teammates. I like it because (of) everybody who’s been in this locker room. Tough season, just the results. Not what we wanted. But we look (to) the future with positive (thoughts).”
New GM Brad Treliving is being coy with his goalie plan at this point, stating that he has “three good goalies” and not buying out Murray in the first window to do so.
Following Treliving’s spending spree in free agency, there is not a ton of cap space for Samsonov. This one is trickling toward arbitration July 21.
Age: 23
Position: Right wing / Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $825,000
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: First-round pick. 2021 world championships gold medallist. One of the NHL’s best value forwards. Delivers impressive production despite moderate ice time. Versatile. Coming off career-best 23-goal, 41-point season.
The latest: No doubt, Vilardi’s breakout offensive run and a career-best shooting percentage (18.9) arrived at a fine time.
The middle-six forward has strong underlying metrics as well.
The slowly groomed Vilardi accepted a dirt-cheap, one-year, bet-on-himself deal last summer and has smartly put himself in line for a significant raise with the Winnipeg Jets as a significant piece of the Pierre-Luc Dubois blockbuster.
“Yeah, more opportunity, obviously. Last year I kind of played more of a bottom six role,” Vilardi told reporters. “I just want to keep growing my game and getting better, and obviously helping the Jets however that is.”
Unlike his first RFA negotiation, Vilardi’s breakout season gives him some leverage.
“Last year, it wasn’t much negotiation. It was just, ‘Here, take this.’ And then, ‘Thank you,’ ” Vilardi said. “This year’s a little different because of my season. But there wasn’t much from L.A. Now, just moving forward, the Jets traded for me, so obviously they want me. I want to be there. I’m excited. Hopefully we can get something done here soon. I think for the most part, it’s just my agent. I don’t really know much.”
Arbitration is scheduled for July 28.
Age: 25
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $787,500
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: Young goaltender entering his prime. Minnesota gave up assets last June to acquire him from Ottawa. Posted career-best 22 wins, 2.10 GAA, .931 save percentage in 2022-23. Tidy .921 save percentage in his five playoff games.
The latest: The DeBrincat trade isn’t the only 2022 draft-time deal Dorion might want a mulligan on.
Gustavsson broke out big-time behind the Minnesota’s stingy defence corps in his platform campaign and, with arbitration rights, has positioned himself nicely to be the wild’s undisputed No. 1 of the future.
Beloved veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, 38, still has one more season on his deal at a $3.5-million cap hit, and there is no reason why Gustavsson shouldn’t fill out the tandem in 2023-24 and be given the opportunity to seize the crease.
“I pretty much told my agent to call me when the contract is done,” Gustavsson told The Athletic’s Joe Smith on June 2. “And I’ll see what it is.”
Nothing was close at that time, and an arbitration date is nearing.
Wild GM Bill Guerin met with Gustavsson’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, ahead of the draft and described the conversation as “very positive.”
“I’m always hopeful that we can just get deals done,” Guerin said. “I think they’re motivated, too.”
As excellent as Gustavsson was this season, he appeared in just 39 games and has yet to carry the lion’s share of an NHL workload.
“The good news is we’ve started a dialogue, and everything is really positive,” agent Kurt Overhardt told Smith. “I’m confident, working with Billy and his group, that over time something will get done. I don’t think it’s a matter of getting something done. It’s just a matter of when it’s done.”
Gustavsson’s arbitration date is Aug. 4.
Age: 24
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: 2018 world junior medallist. Drafted and developed homegrown prospect coming into his own. 2023 William Jennings Trophy co-winner. Sparkling 24-6-4 record in 2022-23. Big hugger.
The latest: Bruins GM Don Sweeney let his UFA rentals walk because he’s prioritizing re-signing Swayman and fellow RFA Trent Frederic.
Despite Swayman and the Vezina-winning Linus Ullmark forming the NHL’s most successful tandem this past season, the Boston Bruins’ tight cap picture has fuelled rumours that both goalies can keep this union rolling.
“It’s crossed my mind, yeah. I mean, I’m not going to lie, that’s the business part of it. That’s what we live in,” Ullmark said at the NHL Awards in Nashville, per the Boston Globe.
“When you have two goalies that are so close when it comes to stat-wise, there’s got to be some changes, probably. And hopefully, like I think, for both of us, that we both want to be together, and we want to stay in Boston because that’s where we thrive. And you see the success that we’ve had, and we’ve just got to see. You know, there’s a personal side to it, and there’s a business side to it, and you’ve got to honour it. That’s just how being a professional hockey player is.”
Sweeney is optimistic he can run back his tandem.
“We’re in a terrific spot, if we do decide (to run it back), and that is what our indications are right now, unless something else materialized between now and then,” Sweeney said in Nashville.
“It doesn’t mean I won’t. You guys know me well enough. I have to do my job as to what might present, and the goalie market is an interesting one right now.”
Swayman and the Bruins face arbitration July 30, two days before Frederic’s case.
Age: 21
Position: Left wing / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: First-overall pick. 2020 world junior gold medallist and tournament MVP. Point total increases every season. Plus-10 forward with good size (6-foot-1, 195 pounds). Promising young forward on team loaded with veterans. Should have more points but power-play time has been limited.
The latest: Lafrenière was subjected to mid-season trade rumours as the cap-strapped New York Rangers are still awaiting a breakout season from their prized 2020 draft lottery ball. (Vancouver certainly had an eye on the winger.)
Absolutely, the Saint-Eustache, Que., native has yet to live up to his hype, but there is a chicken-and-egg situation going on. His third-line ice time has him averaging 14:25 per night over his first three seasons, and he’s been largely relegated to second power-play usage.
Drury said he was intent on re-signing both K’Andre Miller (check) and Lafrenière in call with reporters on July 1.
“Real good young player that we think his best days are ahead of him,” Drury said of the forward. “We’re thrilled he’s part of our team and hope he’s a Ranger for a long, long time.”
The Rangers have roughly $3 million in space to take care of Lafrenière.
10. Morgan Frost
Age: 24
Position: Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $800,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: First-round pick. Stellar at 2019 world juniors for Team Canada. Plays a premium position. Hot off a healthy, 19-goal, 46-point season. Age aligns with Flyers’ build.
The latest: Although still coming into his own as an NHL threat, Frost’s value to the Philadelphia Flyers has only increased with the suspect health of centre Sean Couturier and the trading away of Kevin Hayes.
Although the Flyers do have cap space, a bridge deal appears to be the smart route for a player whose ceiling has yet to be reached and whose early career has been set back by injuries of his own.
Strangely, Frost’s cap hit has been on decline since his drafting, from $925,000 in 2017-18, sliding to $894,167 the following season, $863,333 to wrap his entry-level deal and down to $800,000 on a one-year extension for 2022-23.
Certainly, the pivot is due to crack seven figures.
“I want to be here next year. I want to be here for the long run,” Frost told reporters in late March.
That GM Danny Briere took care of fellow RFAs Cam York and Noah Cates with two-year bridge deals after their nice platform showings suggests Frost is in for the same.
He is the final unsigned player on the Flyers’ rebuilding roster.
“He keeps on improving. That’s encouraging to me,” Flyers coach John Tortorella told reporters in the spring. “I think he’s improved right on through away from the puck, which is a very important part of his game. Just that — positioning, body positioning, battles. Just a 200-foot player.”
11. Shane Pinto
Age: 22
Position: Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: 2020 world juniors star for Team USA. 32nd-overall draft pick. Young, two-way centre with excellent upside. Won Rookie of the Month honours in October. 20-goal man. Put up 43 points in first 99 NHL games.
The latest: Responding well from his surgery setback in 2021-22, Pinto played all 82 games and broke out with a quality 20-goal freshman campaign and put himself in a fantastic position to barter for either a short- or long-term raise.
Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion has hinted that he’d prefer to buy term here, but Pinto and agent Lewis Gross may be wise to go for a two-year pact and allow Pinto’s play to increase his bargaining power under an elevated salary cap down the road.
Recent RFA comparables for the middle-six centre include Montreal’s Alex Newhook ($2.9 million times four years) and Philadelphia’s Noah Cates ($2.625 million times two years).
12. Trent Frederic
Age: 25
Position: Left wing / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $1.05 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and filed
Bargaining chips: World juniors medallist. First-round pick. Big, versatile forward. Hot off a career-best 17-goal, 31-point campaign. Bruising style fits Boston just fine.
The latest: Bruins GM Don Sweeney let his many trade deadline rentals walk away in unrestricted free agency, in part, because he is prioritizing the re-signing of RFAs Swayman and Frederic.
The bottom-six power forward flashed improved offensive flair in 2022-23, and the drafted and developed product is coming into his own.
Frederic’s camp may look to use Tanner Jeannot’s recent two-year, $4.53-million deal with the Lightning as a comparable.
Frederic’s arbitration case has been set for Aug. 1.
More notable pending RFAs: Jamie Drysdale, Jack McBain, Ryan MacLeod, Brett Howden, Logan Stanley
Contract info via the excellent CapFriendly.com.
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