NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: Roll the dice on Las Vegas doing business against the Browns

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The lines are from Covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.

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NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Dallas

The Cowboys can’t be happy with the amount of injuries they suffered and the low margin of victory over a team they can usually run up the score against.

Pittsburgh -1.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts defence held it together a bit better against the Bears last week, but the Steelers have the right pieces to run it right down their throats. Anthony Richardson is ripe to get exposed by Pittsburgh’s elite defence.

Minnesota +2.5 over GREEN BAY

It’s still not certain at time of writing this, but Jordan Love could return this week from injury. But facing a surprisingly undefeated rival with a defence that has looked great so far isn’t a soft landing spot for a comeback. Vikings RB Aaron Jones should be primed to face his former team, too.

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Jacksonville +6.5 over HOUSTON

The heat is really on the Jags after that pathetic showing on Monday night in Buffalo. Doug Pederson is now coaching for his job and Trevor Lawrence is admitting that he isn’t playing up to snuff. The Texans’ offence was stifled last week with Joe Mixon out and Tank Dell getting banged up. In a season in which we’ve rarely seen big favourites win, let alone cover, we’ll take the points.

New Orleans +1.5 over ATLANTA

After racking up the fourth-most points ever through the first two weeks of the season, Derek Carr was back to looking average at best. Perhaps they had this rivalry game on their minds. The Falcons have shown a lot of weaknesses for a team that’s supposedly loaded with talent.

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CHICAGO -3 over Los Angeles Rams

At some point, the Rams injuries are going to be too much to overcome. At some point, Caleb Williams will look like the QB we thought he’d be when he was taken first overall. Is this the week?

TAMPA BAY +2.5 over Philadelphia

The Eagles offence keeps taking hits and with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith missing practice, Philly may be hard-pressed to exploit the Bucs’ biggest weakness. Something is off with Philly coach Nick Sirianni, too, and we don’t want to risk laying points on the road here.

Cincinnati -4 over CAROLINA

Are you buying into the Andy Dalton renaissance? Yeah, me neither. The Bengals defence has been awful, however, so this might be higher scoring than you originally thought. Joe Burrow should step up to get Cincy’s first win of the season and make it a big one.

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Denver +7.5 over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are riding high after laying a beating on the lowly Pats last week, but Denver should provide a bit more competition. The Broncos defence has been solid and could turn this into a real grind of a game. If that’s the case, getting more than a touchdown is a nice proposition.

ARIZONA -3.5 over Washington

The Cardinals welcome back former coach Kliff Kingsbury, who is now the OC in Washington. They should be ready for what he and Jayden Daniels have in store for them and ready to light up the scoreboard against the Commies’ mediocre defence.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 over New England

The 49ers’ big downfall against the Rams is that they took their foot off the gas and then couldn’t stop Matthew Stafford from slinging his way to victory. Lucky for them, the Patriots offence is mid at best. The Niners are dealing with some injuries, but Brock Purdy has been looking rock solid so far this season.

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LAS VEGAS -1.5 over Cleveland*

Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce went on a fiery rant after that hugely disappointing loss to the Panthers last week, saying that some players were making “business decision.” Now is the time that he needs to get down to business and bounce back. The Browns come to Vegas with an offensive line that is beyond banged up and star pass rusher Myles Garrett is hobbled at best with feet injuries. Deshaun Watson looks like he has been spending more time working on legal defences than scouting opposing defences. Here’s a fun fact: If you google ‘Deshaun Watson contract,” the first thing that comes up is a question asking if the Browns get out of it. It’s not often that you can say that Gardner Minshew is the better starting QB in a matchup, but that’s the case here. We’ll back the Silver and Black.

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L.A. CHARGERS +7.5 over Kansas City

The Chargers are dealing with some key injuries on the offensive line while Justin Herbert also is hobbled by a high ankle sprain, which he wants to play through. The Chiefs are undefeated, but arguably could be winless if a few calls go the other way. Considering the record of underdogs this season, it’s hard to pass up this many points to a home dog in a divisional matchup.

Buffalo +2.5 over BALTIMORE

It’s a battle between last year’s MVP and the co-favourite to win it this year. Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have been fantastic this season, but it’s Allen’s Bills have that have been perhaps the all-around best team in the NFL. While sometimes you might balk at the slight rest disadvantage having played on Monday night, the Bills were able to rest their key players in the blowout. The Sunday night kickoff helps on that front, too. The main difference we’re looking at is that the Bills defence should have a big advantage with the Ravens allowing a league-worst 291 passing yards per game, which 36 yards worse than the 31st-ranked Commanders. Future hall of fame kicker Justin Tucker hasn’t been reliable this season and in a game with a short line, that’s another strike against the hosts. I’ll take the Bills in what should be a great game.

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Tennessee -1.5 over MIAMI

The Dolphins are in dire straits with their QB situation and their defence hasn’t looked good at all. Sure, backing Will Levis – who is good for at least a turnover or two – as even a slight favourite on the road is tough, but we think the Titans defence might be good enough to get the win.

Seattle +3.5 over DETROIT

In this same matchup last year, the Seahawks came into Detroit and scored a big overtime win as the underdog. In fact, the Lions haven’t beaten the Seahawks since 2012. Whether that changes or not on Monday night remains to be seen, but this one should shape up to be a close one.

Last week: 7-9

This season: 17-30-1

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