New Poll Shows Independent Dan Osborn In Striking Distance In Nebraska

Independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn is in striking distance of unseating two-term Republican senator Deb Fischer in ruby-red Nebraska according to several recent polls, forcing the GOP to spend millions of dollars in a race that could upend the battle for the Senate.

Fischer leads Osborn by just two percentage points among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena College survey released on Monday — 48% to 46% — putting her lead within the margin of error, with Osborn actually leading among registered voters. Five percent of respondents said they were undecided. A Change Research poll conducted earlier this month, meanwhile, found Osborn with a 2-point lead over the two-term incumbent.

The Cook Political Report also shifted the Nebraska race from “likely” to “lean” Republican in its assessment last week, an alarming sign for the GOP in a state former President Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 points in the 2020 presidential election.

A surprise loss in Nebraska could spoil Republicans’ plans to control the Senate in 2025. Although the party feels confident about picking up seats in West Virginia and Montana, an Osborn victory would leave them with just 50 seats in the upper chamber if they fail to win battleground races elsewhere in the country.

Osborn, a blue-collar industrial mechanic who led a strike in 2021 against Kellogg’s, has gained traction by railing against special interests and corporate greed, blaming the latter for the high cost of groceries and gas. He’s shunned both major political parties and vowed not to caucus with either of them in the Senate if he wins in November.

“That’s what the two-party doom loop means — we’re so far apart and politics is so polarized,” Osborn said in an interview that aired Sunday on ABC’s “The Week.” “I’ve read [the Constitution] quite a bit and I’ve never seen anywhere written that says you have to [be beholden to one party]. I want to challenge the system because the system needs to be challenged.”

“I don’t expect to charge in there and be a maverick and start pounding my fist on the table,” he added. “But I’m pretty good at forming alliances with people and convincing people just to do the right thing — for Nebraskans and for the American people. I think this is the start of something special. People are ready for it. And I want to be a part of it.”

The 49-year-old U.S. Navy veteran criticized Fischer for voting against the bipartisan border security bill earlier this year, claiming that she “doesn’t want the border closed because she takes money from the meatpackers in this state who benefit from a wide-open border with an influx of undocumented workers.” Fischer, who serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in February she didn’t believe the legislation would keep America safe.

Republican groups have scrambled to defend Fischer and their path to a Senate majority amid grumbles from some in the party that she’s taken the race for granted. Last week, Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), dumped $3 million to boost her in the final weeks of the race by painting Osborn as a liberal-in-hiding.

Osborn responded by airing a unique ad in which he blow-torched a television set while a Republican ad played on the screen accusing him of being a “Trojan horse.”

“DC’s Trojan horse? I don’t even own a suit,” Osborn said in the spot. “This is why people hate politics.”

Republican incumbents have survived scares from independent challengers in the past. In September 2014, polls showed independent Greg Orman tied with then-incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), driving similar news coverage about a surprise red state upset swinging control of the Senate. Roberts ultimately won by nearly 11 percentage points.

Although Osborn is facing tough odds in Nebraska, his campaign could offer a winning model for other candidates in red states that haven’t been historically competitive, said Faiz Shakir, a progressive operative who ran independent Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign.

“Even if he doesn’t win, it should upend a lot of Democrats’ notions of how you can win,” Shakir told HuffPost on Monday, noting Osborn’s attention on calling out corporate greed and support for worker’s rights. “That language, that vision, is going to be how you appeal to people who aren’t with us.”

“Dan Osborn is one of the few who is able to marry a conversation in which you can say the economy might have had improvements and also that we have to fundamentally go after corporate power,” he added.