On the eve of the tipoff of the 2024-25 season, Yardbarker NBA writer Sean Keane offers a prediction for all 15 teams in the Western Conference.
DALLAS MAVERICKS: Klay Thompson will start the season in the starting lineup, but he won’t end it there. | Thompson’s three-point shooting (41.3% for his career) will help Dallas, but its extended playoff runs in 2022 and 2024 were made with plus defenders at small forward. Thompson’s defense, however, has become progressively worse since he returned from two major injuries in 2022.
DENVER NUGGETS: Nikola Jokic will break his own record for assists by a center (708, set last season). | Expect opponents to key on the three-time MVP more than ever with key veterans gone (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Magic, key reserve Reggie Jackson to 76ers). Also expect Jokic to use his passing wizardry to set up Denver’s new, young rotation players for success to the tune of 10+ assists per game.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: Expect a top-10 defense. | With the additions of De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, plus Draymond Green playing more than last season’s 55 games, the Warriors will return to having a top-10 defense and a top-six finish in the standings. The free-agent signings and increased playing time for young wings should lead to more steals and fewer fouls, enough to tighten their defense and improve the Warriors’ transition points, fourth worst in the NBA last season.
HOUSTON ROCKETS: Reed Sheppard will win Rookie of the Year. | The former Kentucky Wildcats guard is a dead-eyed shooter who made 52.1% of his three-pointers last season. Plus, he’s playing for a team that needs his skill set — only two Rockets averaged two three-pointers or more a game last season. Sheppard will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his offensive skills to award voters.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: In their first year at the $2B Intuit Dome, the Clippers will miss the playoffs. | The loss of Paul George to the 76ers in free agency and Kawhi Leonard’s balky knee will be enough to keep the team, whose offense is centered on 35-year-old James Harden, out of the postseason. Worst of all, it will lose its subsequent lottery pick to the Thunder, who own the right to swap first-round picks.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS: Bronny James will be one of the NBA’s worst players from a statistical perspective. | But count on him playing more in the NBA than in the G League. The younger James shot 29.7% from the field and 8.3% from deep in the preseason, but the Lakers hired his father’s podcast co-host to coach the team. JJ Redick isn’t going to bench LeBron’s rookie son if his dad doesn’t approve.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: The Grizzlies will end up in the play-in tournament. | That’s an improvement from last season’s 27-55 disaster but still disappointing. Memphis has lost six of its top nine players from the team that won 56 games two seasons ago. This team has potential, but beyond Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson, Jr., the roster is full of players who haven’t shown they can help Memphis win.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: The Wolves will take a step back in the regular season. | Minnesota went 56-26 last season and lost to Dallas in the Western Conference Finals, but it will be stronger in the playoffs this season. Adjusting to the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks will take time, but come playoff time, the added versatility of former New York players Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo will help Minnesota’s late-game offense.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS: The Pelicans will make a move for a big man sooner than later. | While playing Zion Williamson at the five could unlock a potent offense, putting their undersized (6-foot-6) and injury-prone star at the pivot isn’t a viable long-term plan. A number of teams have spare big men (Trail Blazers and Hawks), so expect the Pelicans to make a deal.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the MVP award. | With his Thunder favored to have the Western Conference’s best record and SGA’s offensive efficiency improving the past two seasons, he’s poised to unseat Nikola Jokic as MVP. Expect “Joker” fatigue among MVP voters. SGA finished second in last season’s vote.
PHOENIX SUNS: The Suns won’t get a healthy season from Bradley Beal, their $50M guard. | Beal hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season since 2018-19, and there’s no reason to think he’ll be healthier now that he’s 31. The Suns still might thrive, but it will be due to their “Big Two” of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker — Beal hasn’t been an All-Star for three years.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS: Scoot Henderson will show why he was considered a top prospect. | After the All-Star break, Henderson improved his field-goal percentage to 40% and made over 35% of his threes while upping his assists from 4.7 to 7.1 per game. With an extra year of development and massive rookie Donovan Clingan (7-foot-2, 280 pounds) setting screens, Henderson is set up to shine in his second NBA season.
SACRAMENTO KINGS: Sacramento will return to having a top-five offense after dropping to 13th in offensive rating last season. | Adding DeMar DeRozan solves Sacramento’s biggest offensive issues, which were a lack of free throws and mid-range baskets, though his presence will also hurt its 14th-ranked defense.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS: At 21, Victor Wembanyama will become the youngest NBA Defensive Player of the Year winner. | That’s two years younger than Dwight Howard was when he won the award for the Magic in 2009. As a rookie last season, Wemby led the league in blocks and finished second in the DPOY vote.
UTAH JAZZ: Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson (or both) will be traded by the Feb. 6 deadline | Utah tanked in the second half the previous two seasons and will follow that course this season for a shot a drafting Duke super-prospect Cooper Flagg in June. The easiest way to stack losses is to deal veterans, especially Sexton and Clarkson, who could help any team that needs a microwave scorer off the bench.