National title or bust for Ohio State? Ryan Day, Buckeyes ‘know what’s at stake’

Editor’s note: This article is part of the College Football Playoff Prospectus, previewing and predicting the top CFP contenders and Power 4 conferences for the upcoming season.

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Jack Sawyer was the first recruit to commit to Ohio State in the first class Ryan Day put together from scratch as head coach. The five-star defensive end from Pickerington North, just 30 minutes away from Ohio State’s campus, pledged to the Buckeyes in February 2019.

Sawyer became a lead recruiter for a group that finished as the second-rated class in the 2021 cycle. It’s no coincidence that he was also the first player from that class to tell Day he was going to return to Ohio State for his senior season, choosing to postpone his NFL dreams to chase a national championship — and get revenge on Michigan.

When he made his decision, he opened a group chat with the rest of the Class of 2021. The idea of returning for a chance to end the three-game losing streak to Michigan and try to win the program’s first national title in a decade piqued the interest of everybody. Key Class of 2020 players Cody Simon and Lathan Ransom decided to return too, and the dominoes started to fall.

Soon there were multiple announcements a week from returnees like JT Tuimoloau, Denzel Burke, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Jordan Hancock and Donovan Jackson. Most of them could have been drafted in April, some in the first round. It’s the first time Day has had that level of that level of talent return, and it was only the start to Ohio State’s strong offseason.

Led by an increased focus on fundraising by Day and a big NIL push, the Buckeyes added elite transfer portal talent to that experienced rising senior class. They picked up Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin to play center, Ole Miss star running back Quinshon Judkins signed up to share carries with Henderson, Alabama freshman All-American Caleb Downs joined an already stellar defense and Kansas State quarterback Will Howard came in to replace the Syracuse-bound Kyle McCord.

All of it has made expectations at Ohio State even higher than usual.

“It’s natty or bust, man,” Burke said in March. “That’s our mentality. No excuses, we got to win it all. We got to win it all.”

“When you have high expectations, it means you’re relevant and people expect great things from you with the players you have on the team and coaches you have on staff,” Sawyer said. “We know it’s there. We know what’s at stake.”

Ohio State’s expectations are high every year, and for good reason. Since Jim Tressel took over as head coach in 2001, the Buckeyes have the highest winning percentage in the country. That has spanned four coaches: Tressel, Luke Fickell for one year, Urban Meyer and Day.

Emeka Egbuka has 1,857 career receiving yards. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)

This year, though, is different from past seasons. There’s more pressure on Ohio State to beat Michigan and reclaim its power in the Big Ten after a three-year Big Ten title drought and losing streak to the Wolverines, who capped their run under Jim Harbaugh with their first national championship since 1997.

Unlike previous seasons when Ohio State would downplay the expectations, the Buckeyes aren’t hiding from them.

“We came back for one purpose and one goal: beat the team up north and win a national championship,” Sawyer said.

Even Day isn’t running from it.

“They came back for a reason,” Day said. “We are thinking big, they’re thinking big, we know what’s at stake and we want to do everything we can to have them leave a legacy behind and a bunch of hardware.”

To do that, Ohio State’s defense is going to be the key. The Buckeyes return 11 players who played at least 300 defensive snaps last season and all of the cornerbacks that helped the team lead the nation in passing defense.

Of course, the defense wasn’t the reason Ohio State fell short a year ago. Day went into the offseason knowing he had to change things on offense, so he brought in Howard, which will allow Ohio State to be a bit more versatile because of his arm talent and mobility. Still, that wasn’t everything.

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Before he retired, former athletic director Gene Smith told Day he would give him whatever he needed to get the coaching staff he wanted. Day made the decision to give up play calling so he could focus on being the CEO that the program needed. If he was going to do that, he knew he needed an offensive coordinator he could trust.

First he hired former Penn State and Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien, who subsequently took the Boston College head coaching job a few weeks later. That left the door open for Day to hire his mentor, UCLA coach Chip Kelly, to lead the offense. Kelly has always been seen as an innovator, and the Buckeyes believe he can get them over the hump.

Everything’s in place for Ohio State. The preseason No. 2 team in the polls has a loaded defense, a new quarterback with Big 12 championship experience, a revamped wide receiver corps full of five-star prospects and a coaching staff Day handpicked.

Teams don’t win national championships based on talent alone. Ohio State knows that, and Day has been preaching it to his team. But he believes the sense of urgency he sees from the team is special.

“We are his first real recruiting class,” Sawyer said, “and a lot of us felt like we let him down in a sense of not reaching the goals we set out to do when we signed our name on the dotted line.”

Ryan Day has a 56-8 record as Ohio State’s head coach. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

The coach

Day has been one of the most successful coaches in the country since taking over the program in 2019. He has the third-highest winning percentage in that span, bested by only Kirby Smart and Nick Saban. Still, most people around the country — including many in Columbus — believe Day has more to prove. Could this be the roster to do it?

Ohio State’s last national championship was in 2014, so that’s a feat Day is still searching for. Before that, the Buckeyes want to take control of the Big Ten again. In the past three years, Ohio State hasn’t been to the Big Ten title game because it’s lost to Michigan, which has also cost Ohio State two trips to the College Football Playoff (it made it as the fourth seed in 2022). The talent Ohio State has this year puts Day in a pressure-filled position with a fan base that always expects excellence — and wins against the Wolverines.

Will Day take advantage and slay his Michigan demons to take back control of the rivalry and conference? Do that, and a national championship is within reach.

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The QB

For the second consecutive season, Ohio State went through a quarterback battle in preseason camp. Last year’s competition stretched into the season before Kyle McCord beat out Devin Brown. McCord then entered the transfer portal after tallying 3,170 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions.

That left Ohio State searching for more answers, which resulted in Howard coming to Columbus. Day announced Howard as the starter on Aug. 15, which was the earliest he’s ever done that.

Howard takes over the Buckeyes’ offense with four years of experience at Kansas State. He played in 34 games, starting 28, and threw for 5,786 yards and 48 touchdowns to pair with 19 rushing touchdowns.

He came into camp at 235 pounds, down from 249 pounds when he arrived on campus in January. Howard has improved his arm strength, and he’s shown he can move well inside and outside of the pocket and make the right reads on time.

Ohio State has a deep quarterback room. If Howard gets hurt, the Buckeyes can turn to Brown, who has been the backup for two years, or a plethora of young talent led by five-star 2024 recruit Julian Sayin, who transferred from Alabama after Nick Saban retired. Sayin and redshirt freshman Lincoln Kienholz are competing for the third spot on the depth chart with four-star freshman Air Noland in fifth.

QB Will Howard started 28 games in four years at Kansas State. (Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA Today)

Impact players

WR Emeka Egbuka: It’s possible that not enough people are talking about a potential Biletnikoff Award winner. Egbuka has often been overshadowed by the talent Ohio State has at wide receiver and elsewhere. Egbuka will enter the season as a top-five receiver in the country, even though he is coming off an up-and-down 2023 in which he battled a foot injury that required midseason surgery. He’s without his partner Marvin Harrison Jr. now, so he’ll get more attention from defenses, but if healthy he remains one of the nation’s most talented and versatile receivers.

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RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins: There isn’t a better duo in the country. They are two of the best running backs, and now they will help each other out by sharing snaps to keep their legs fresh. Henderson, who has dealt with injuries the past two years, tallied 926 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 10 games last season. Judkins had 1,158 yards and 15 touchdowns in 13 games and has had one of the highest workloads in the country at Ole Miss over the past two years. There’s a chance those numbers drop due to sharing snaps, but with Kelly’s love of the running game, there will be plenty of touches to go around.

DEs JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer: The star duo from Ohio State’s loaded 2021 class has returned for one more year together. Both could be in NFL training camps right now, but instead they returned to chase some hardware. Sawyer is the more complete player of the two and led the team with 10 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks, but Tuimoloau has had the biggest moments. He had a record-setting game at Penn State two years ago and wrecked Notre Dame’s potential game-sealing drive last season. The sack numbers should go up for both, and they should be fresher with added depth on the Buckeyes’ front line.

S Caleb Downs: Safety was one of Ohio State’s questions entering the offseason, and all Ohio State did was go get Downs, one of the best defensive players in the country. The former five-star recruit was a Freshman All-American at Alabama after tallying a team-leading 107 tackles and two interceptions. He immediately turned Ohio State’s defense from a great one into a potentially historic group.

CB Denzel Burke: Ohio State’s defense is going to be led by its best secondary since the 2019 group led by Damon Arnette, Jordan Fuller, Jeffrey Okudah and others. A major piece of this year’s secondary is Burke, a potential first-round pick. The 6-foot-1, 193-pound corner isn’t the most physically imposing defensive back, but Ohio State’s receivers rave about him being the most technically sound corner they go against. He had just one interception last year, but teams don’t throw at him often. Last year he was targeted just 48 times and gave up 25 receptions and one touchdown, per PFF. By comparison, Davison Igbinosun, Ohio State’s second corner, was targeted 71 times.

Scouting report

One assistant coach who faced Ohio State last year said the Buckeyes last year “don’t have a glaring weakness” on defense.

“They can play, man, zone. (Knowles) can get after it pressure wise from various fronts. The scheme can be difficult to handle in one week if you’re not familiar with it. I think now that they are really into the scheme they can be even more dynamic with having people that are really good with man, zone, zone blitz, pressure zero — there’s nothing they can’t do.”

As for the offense, it’s hard for Kelly to step into a better position, even with the turnover at quarterback.

“I think Chip Kelly is really, really good,” said a coordinator who faced Ohio State. “So to me, if I’m Chip, I’m not asking him to do a lot of stuff. Just take what the defense gives you and get the ball in those playmakers’ hands. There’s no reason for you to force something. That’s what I’d be telling him.”

No. 1 recruit Jeremiah Smith has been an offseason star. (Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA Today)

Why Ohio State will make the Playoff

Simply put, Ohio State has the most talent in the country. The Buckeyes have questions at quarterback and on the offensive line, which is why they are ranked second, not first, in the preseason. But from receiver to running back to the entire defense, nobody has the depth and talent level Ohio State has right now.

Every starter on defense has an NFL future, and though the Buckeyes lost a Heisman finalist in Harrison, there are four five-star prospects ready to take more responsibility, including No. 1 Class of 2024 recruit Jeremiah Smith.

Biggest hurdle to making CFP

Inconsistent offensive line play. Last year’s offensive line wasn’t good enough to win at Michigan and cost the Buckeyes a Playoff spot.

Ohio State should be better after adding McLaughlin and returning Donovan Jackson and Josh Simmons. There’s still some concern about the right side of the line, but right tackle Josh Fryar has improved. It’s a position group that can’t afford injuries and must take a step forward.

Path to the Playoff

The first month of Ohio State’s season is fairly easy. Its first game of consequence is on Sept. 28 at a Michigan State team with a new coach and roster that should be overwhelmed by Ohio State’s talent. The season picks up in October when the Buckeyes play Iowa at home, followed by a trip the next week to face No. 3 Oregon. That will give us a look at just how good Ohio State is.

After that, the two games to circle are when Ohio State goes to Penn State on Nov. 2 and hosts Michigan on Nov. 30.

Unless something unexpected happens, the Buckeyes should go to Oregon with a 5-0 record. Even if they lose in Eugene, a chance to get to the Big Ten title game is still up for grabs if they beat Penn State and Michigan. With no more Big Ten divisions and an expanded CFP, there’s no reason to expect anything less than a CFP bid.

Austin Mock’s projection

Anything short of a national championship will feel like a disappointment for the Buckeyes, the most-likely Big Ten champion after three consecutive years of losing to Michigan and falling short. Per our model, Ohio State has a 36.5 percent chance of winning the Big Ten to secure a first-round bye and an 86 percent chance to make the Playoff. Its national championship chances are second only to Georgia at 18.7 percent.

The Playoff Prospectus series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Top photo of Jack Sawyer: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)