National caucus meeting won’t fix with ails Liberals

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Whenever the federal Liberals finally decide to hold a national caucus meeting, here is the problem confronting them about the government of their leader, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

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On every one of the top issues Canadians say they are most concerned about, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have a big lead over them.

Abacus Data last month polled 1,900 Canadian adults asking them what they see as the three most important issues facing Canada today.

CEO David Coletto said the results were consistent with Abacus polling over the past two years and, “show that the Conservative Party is currently ahead on the issues that matter most to Canadians.”

The poll found, “the cost of living remains the largest issue facing more Canadians (71%); followed by housing affordability and accessibility (46%); healthcare (42%); the economy (33%), and immigration (27%). In total, 86% of Canadians put either the cost of living or housing as a top issue.”

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It also found, “the Conservative party has a big lead among those who rate the rising cost of living, housing affordability and accessibility, the economy, and immigration as top issues. The Liberals lead only among those who consider climate change and the environment as a top issue.”

On the cost of living, the margin in favour of the Conservatives compared to the Liberals was 45% to 21%; on housing affordability and accessibility 35% to 20%; on healthcare 35% to 28%; on the economy 55% to 20%; on immigration 54% to 15%.

The findings on immigration — meaning the number of permanent residents, temporary foreign workers, international students and asylum seekers admitted to Canada ever year — should be particularly worrisome to the Liberals.

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That’s because immigration impacts three other issues Canadians say they care deeply about — housing affordability and accessibility, the availability of healthcare and the economy, in terms of its ability to provide enough jobs when the country’s population is now increasing by more than one million a year.

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(Statistics Canada reported on Friday that Canada lost 1,400 net jobs in June, while the unemployment rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 6.4%, a hike of 1.3 percentage points since April 2023).

Given that the Conservatives are widely perceived as being more in tune with the major concerns of the Canadian public than the Liberals, it’s hardly surprising the Abacus Data poll also found that more than twice as many Canadians (62%) believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while only 25% believe it’s heading in the right direction, with 13% undecided.

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Even one in three intending to vote Liberal thought the country was on the wrong track.

As for the issue the Liberals would obviously prefer to fight the next election on — climate change and the environment — it finished out of the top five concerns of Canadians, in sixth place at 23%, less than one in four.

On that issue, the Liberals outpolled the Conservatives by a margin of 34% to 17%.

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But the problem for them is that the federal carbon tax is deeply unpopular with the public.

A recent Leger poll for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation found that almost seven in 10 Canadians (69%) opposed the Liberals’ decision to hike the carbon tax to $80 per tonne of emissions from $65 on April 1 — a 23% hike in one year — on its way up to $170 per tonne in 2030.

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A Nanos/CTV poll released last August found 53% said it was ineffective in fighting climate change while 45% were skeptical that higher gasoline prices due to carbon taxes would reduce fuel consumption.

As pollster Nik Nanos told CTV News at the time, what Canadians want to hear from politicians is: “How can we fight climate change in a way that still allows Canadians to feel comfortable that they can pay for the groceries this week and pay for the rent or the mortgage next month?”

Given these findings and the reality that a wide variety of polls have consistently found the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by double digit margins that would result in a majority government if an election was held today, the Liberals have a limited number of choices in how they can respond.

For example, Trudeau could resign, paving the way for a new leader, or he could shuffle his cabinet and/or bring in new policies.

The problem is that when the public perceives that a political leader has not responded effectively to their major concerns for a long time, it’s possible that nothing will work.

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