Most surveyed grocery shoppers report noticing shrinkflation

Over three-quarters of surveyed consumers say they have noticed shrinkflation at the grocery store in the previous 30 days, according to the October 2024 Consumer Food Insights Report (CFI).

The survey-based report out of Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability (CFDAS) assesses food spending, consumer satisfaction and values, support of agricultural and food policies, and trust in information sources. Purdue experts conducted and evaluated the survey, which included 1,200 consumers across the U.S.

The latest CFI survey included questions about product information that consumers most look for when buying food at the store. The survey showed that 82% of consumers “often” or “always” check the price of food items before buying.

Fewer consumers “often” or “always” check for unit price (51%) or weight (44%). “The unit price and weight in particular are key indicators of shrinkflation. Without checking weight or unit price, consumers may not notice reductions in the quantity or value of their typical grocery products,” Balagtas said.

Most consumers (82%) think shrinkflation is a common practice used by food companies and 76% believe it is a result of trying to increase profits even when costs are not rising.

“It is interesting yet not entirely surprising to see this sentiment as articles about grocery prices, accusations of corporate greed and shrinkflation continue to circulate in popular news media,” Balagtas said. National Public Radio and U.S. Today, for example, both covered the topic in September.

“Our research on food values shows that price and affordability are among the top concerns for food shoppers, and one way for food manufacturers to reduce the price is to reduce the size of a product. But reducing product size could cause consumer resentment,” he said. Around 74% of consumers agree there should be requirements in place that make product size reductions more transparent to the consumer, such as prominent labeling.

Food satisfaction remained high among most American adults, with 69% of consumers classified as “thriving” on the diet well-being index. Food insecurity remained unchanged from last month at 13%.

“Notably, households with children are more likely to experience food insecurity, with 17% of consumers in these households reporting difficulties accessing adequate amounts of nutritious foods,” said Elijah Bryant, a survey research analyst at CFDAS and a co-author of the report. Households without children report a lower food insecurity rate (13%).

Questions about consumer awareness, experience and perceptions of shrinkflation were new to the CFI survey. With shrinkflation, food companies reduce the quantity or size of a food product while keeping the same price.

“A variety of factors may influence a producer’s decision to downsize a product’s size, such as rising costs in the supply chain and inflationary pressures,” said the report’s lead author, Joseph Balagtas, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue and director of CFDAS.

“The goal is to better understand how consumers perceive these reductions and if they have noticed them happening at all.”

The new CFI survey sorted consumer responses into two groups: households with children and those without children. Of the consumers who noticed shrinkflation, 78% say they have observed it in snack foods and 53% in packaged desserts and sweets. Just under half, 48%, also said they have observed shrinkflation in frozen foods. Those with children report seeing shrinkflation in a wider variety of food products.

The CFDAS researchers saw no significant changes in consumer estimates of food inflation (5.4%) or expectations for future food inflation (3%). Overall weekly food spending rose to $197 per week, 5.9% higher than this time last year and 11.2% higher than two years ago.

“Households with children report eating more meals from restaurants, fast food places or cafeterias than households without children, and much of their budget for food away from home goes toward delivery or takeout options,” Bryant said.

“Consumers living with children report choosing foods that are commonly labeled as ‘sustainable’ or ‘ethical,’ such as wild-caught fish, cage-free eggs, plant-based proteins or organic foods more frequently than childless adults,” Bryant said. Similarly, those with children tend to check labels for food origin, recalls, genetically modified organism ingredients or natural/clean labels.

“Somewhat surprisingly, consumers with children in their households report engaging in risky food behaviors—eating rare meat, unwashed produce or raw dough, for example,” Bryant said. Consumers with children are also more likely to throw away food that is past the use-by date.

“The largest differences we observe between households with and without children come in the agreement with health-related claims,” Bryant said. Those with children are more likely to agree that organic food is more nutritious and that both gluten-free food and plant-based milk are healthier.

“Consumer beliefs about these statements and the frequency at which consumers report choosing these nonconventional foods when grocery shopping suggest that those with children are a potential target demographic for food companies looking to bring alternative, health and sustainability-focused foods to market,” Bryant noted.