Serious chance for absolute majority, Marine Le Pen argues
It’s Friday morning, and the campaign is soon reaching its conclusion.
The far right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen appeared on Cnews – a channel critics have labelled the “French Fox News” – to urge supporters to go to the polls on Sunday.
“We have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the national assembly,” she said.
Polling has shown, however, that the most likely scenario on Sunday is that National Rally will not win an absolute majority of seats.
Le Pen told viewers that the seats polling is not an exact science.
Key events
National Front at 170-210 seats: Fiducial poll
And here’s another poll.
In Paris’ first constituency, I meet Raphaël Kempf, a candidate for the New Popular Front representing the hard left France Unbowed, as he was speaking with voters outside a school.
In the second round, he is facing Sylvain Maillard, representing Together, an alliance of Macron allies.
“We’re in a campaign which is very tough,” Kempf said.
“We’re fighting for equality, for justice, for environment – all the things that we think the Macron party didn’t do,” he said, accusing the president’s allies of being the “engine” driving the far right’s rising popularity. He also argued Macron’s allies have echoed far right ideas.
“We understand that the far right is going so far because Macron left forgotten maybe all of the issues on social justice and equality and tax equality.”
Kempf also addressed rivals’ accusations of anti-Semitism, rejecting them and insisting: “I’ve always been fighting against racism, islamophobia, anti-Semitism.”
French Jewish communities and prominent figures across the political spectrum have raised concerns about comments from top figures in France Unbowed which they have described as anti-Semitic.
In Boulogne-Billancourt, a Paris suburb, I meet Pauline Rapilly Ferniot, a 28-year old member of the Ecologists and candidate for the New Popular Front who is facing Macron ally Stéphane Séjourné in the second round on Sunday.
In the first round, Séjourné took 46%, while Rapilly Ferniot took 21%.
Sitting outside a local coffee shop, the green candidate said that while the area tends to lean toward the traditional right, she has noticed a spike in engagement from left wing activists during this campaign.
“The national atmosphere made a lot of people come into the campaign – more than any campaign before,” she said.
In the last election, she said she had about 50 activists campaigning. Now, she had about 280.
“This is something that happened everywhere in France,” she said, speaking of the activists’ mobilisation.
In her area, she noted, “we got a lot of new people, even if there is no far right risk, people wanted to be involved in this huge union of resistance.”
National Front at 175-205 seats: Ipsos
A new Ipsos poll is out.
Far right National Rally and its allies: 175-205 seats
Left wing New Popular Front: 145-175
Macron’s allies: 118-148
Speaking on TF1 today, the French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, argued that the far right National Rally’s policy program would lead to violence – and that the party’s program would also be a catastrophe for the country’s economy.
🗣️”Je veux l’apaisement et la paix civile, et on voit qu’il y aurait beaucoup de violence dans la société si le programme du RN venait à être appliqué… Ce serait aussi une catastrophe pour notre économie” : @GabrielAttal invité du 13 heures de TF1. pic.twitter.com/SzEsVbVZ3a
— TF1Info (@TF1Info) July 5, 2024
Over 50 people assaulted during election campaign, minister says
More than 50 politicians and campaigners have been assaulted during the French election campaign, Gerald Darmanin, the interior minister, told BFMTV, AFP reported.
“This campaign is short and yet we already have 51 candidates, substitutes and activists who have been physically assaulted,” he said.
More than 30 people have been arrested, according to the minister, including people from far-right and far-left groups.
As Sunday’s election nears and politicians rush to mobilise their supporters, candidates are trying to convince voters that they can win.
Aurélien Le Coq, from the hard left France Unbowed, wrote that “the New Popular Front can govern.”
‘Since Bardella arrived, it’s changed’, says National Rally voter
At a newspaper stand in central Paris, not far from the Eiffel Tower, I chat with the cashier, Jean-Luc, who cast his vote for the far-right National Rally.
I asked him why he’s a fan – and he said he didn’t like the original National Front – and isn’t a fan of Marine Le Pen, either.
What made a difference for Jean-Luc is Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s 28-year-old leader.
“The National Front was not good – Le Pen, the father, was bad,” he said.
“Since Mr. Bardella arrived, it’s changed. Even Marine Le Pen isn’t excellent,” he said.
“The others are too aggressive – Bardella not at all,” he added.
Far right at 205-230 seats: Les Echos poll
And here’s another new poll, conducted for Les Echos.
This poll puts the far right National Front at between 205 and 230 seats.
🗳️ SONDAGE EXCLUSIF – Législatives 2024 : le RN mal parti pour décrocher une majorité absolue à l’Assemblée ➡️ https://t.co/KahwQdKr7s
Derrière le RN viendrait le Nouveau Front populaire (NFP), avec entre 145 et 175 sièges, puis la majorité sortante (130-162). pic.twitter.com/u42eureArq
— Les Echos (@LesEchos) July 5, 2024
Here’s a look at the polling numbers in the 6th district of Calvados, where a former prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, is competing against far right candidate Nicolas Calbrix.
An Ifop study found that Borne would take 54% in the second round, compared to 46% for Calbrix.
Etude @IfopOpinion – @Fiducial pour @SudRadio : Le climat législatif dans la 6e circonscription du Calvados
👉Au second tour des élections législatives, E. Borne recueillerait 54% des suffrages exprimés, contre 46% pour le candidat du Rassemblement national N. Calbrix pic.twitter.com/L6J78ENDZT
— Ifop Opinion (@IfopOpinion) July 5, 2024
Meanwhile, prep is ongoing for the upcoming Paris olympics.
There’s one phrase I’ve heard repeated among voters I spoke with in Paris this morning:
“It’s a mess.”
Here is the latest projection from Ifop for France’s 577-member national assembly:
Far right National Rally: 210-240
Left wing New Popular Front: 170-200
Macron’s allies: 95-125
‘It’s always the same thing’: Disenchantment on the metro
At another Paris metro stop, I sit next to a middle-aged woman who asked that her name not be published.
Asked about Sunday’s election, she said: “honestly, I have no trust at all. It’s always the same thing, it’s always the same debates.”
But asked if she will go vote she said “yes,” adding however that “honestly I don’t feel like voting.”
She did say she has a preference: “not the extremes, not the right, the middle.”
On the metro: A voter hoping for stability
I’m now at a metro station in central Paris talking to commuters about how they are feeling about the election.
As she was waiting to board a train, one voter, Fatima, she is hoping the extremes won’t do well.
“I will go vote, that’s for sure – I think it’s an obligation,” she said.
She said she hopes the situation in France will be stabilised.
“I hope the extremes won’t pass,” she said.
“We try to vote for the least worst,” she added, saying that everything has been done in a hurry and there was “surprise” about this election.
National Rally would fail to get absolute majority: Elabe poll
Here’s another poll by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published this morning. As a reminder, 289 seats are required for an absolute majority in the national assembly.
Far right National Rally: 200-230
Left wing New Popular Front: 165-190
Macron’s allies: 120-140
Serious chance for absolute majority, Marine Le Pen argues
It’s Friday morning, and the campaign is soon reaching its conclusion.
The far right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen appeared on Cnews – a channel critics have labelled the “French Fox News” – to urge supporters to go to the polls on Sunday.
“We have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the national assembly,” she said.
Polling has shown, however, that the most likely scenario on Sunday is that National Rally will not win an absolute majority of seats.
Le Pen told viewers that the seats polling is not an exact science.
Welcome to the Paris blog
Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog, coming to you today from Paris.
With the second round of the French legislative election just days away, we will be delving into the latest on the campaign trail.
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