Back in September, The Athletic’s NFL staff made picks for MVP, Super Bowl champion and more. Two months later, the season’s (approximate) midseason point, is the perfect time to update those predictions. Some things remained the same (like the consensus Super Bowl LIX matchup), while others have changed (MVP and Super Bowl winner picks).
Forty-six staffers responded. Here are their predictions.
Voter fatigue might have been a factor in Lamar Jackson drawing zero MVP votes in our poll two months ago, but his performance to this point has been undeniable. Patrick Mahomes was the pick before the season started, but while he’s been better than his box-score statline would suggest he might have too steep a statistical hill to climb to overtake Jackson.
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Like his quarterback teammate who now leads the MVP race, Derrick Henry didn’t draw a single OPOY vote from our staff in the preseason, though Henry now seems to be a healthy second half of the season away from clinching the award for a second time in his career. The two top vote-getters in September have been done in by injuries — Tyreek Hill to his quarterback, and Christian McCaffrey to himself.
Watt finished third in the preseason vote, behind Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Parsons’ injury and Garrett’s (relatively) down season have swung the door open for Watt to win DPOY honors for a second time — which would put him one trophy away from catching big brother J.J., a three-time winner with the Houston Texans. Warner and Chris Jones also drew votes in September’s poll.
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Jayden Daniels finished second to the draft’s top pick, Caleb Williams, in the preseason vote. Though while Williams’ play has improved as the season has gone on, Daniels has been spectacular and is primarily responsible for the staggering turnaround of the Commanders’ on-field fortunes. (Also, while we didn’t split the rookie vote into Offensive and Defensive awards like the NFL does, one voter did highlight Rams edge rusher Jared Verse as the top defensive rookie.)
The Chiefs drew 28 of 42 votes (67 percent) to win the AFC in September, and now get a similar share (63 percent) at midseason. They have run into some injury issues (specifically top receiver Rashee Rice) coming off a 21-game season a year ago, but with a perfect record things are set up to run through Kansas City in the AFC playoffs. There’s not much reason to move off the two-time defending champs.
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While the Lions were the preseason pick with less than half the vote (16 of 42, 38 percent), their performance in the first half of the season, specifically of late, has made them heavy favorites in the NFC (87 percent of the vote). The Packers, 49ers and Eagles were second, third, and fourth, respectively, in September as well.
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While the two conference champion picks held from the summer, the Lions have won over the staff’s confidence when it comes to potentially lifting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LIX. While the Chiefs got more than half the vote (23 of 42) in September, Detroit drew only two votes to win the Super Bowl before the season started, tied for fifth (behind the Chiefs, 49ers, Texans and Bengals) at that time.
What they said
“The Dolphins are flawed on defense and can’t afford more than two more losses, but they’ve got a supercharged offense and the conducive schedule (Rams, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Jets twice) to go on a run and steal the AFC’s seventh playoff spot.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer
“It’s the 49ers if they get Christian McCaffrey back and he’s able to stay on the field. Otherwise, I’d go with the Bengals.” — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer
“I almost picked the 49ers to win the NFC despite their 4-4 start. They have played shorthanded all season, and while they’re not getting Brandon Aiyuk or Javon Hargrave back I think they have enough elsewhere to win it all if things break right. Brock Purdy has taken another step, and the offensive line has more upside than in previous years. If Christian McCaffrey gets right, San Francisco could be a juggernaut again.” — David DeChant, senior editor
“The Rams are in a vulnerable division, and the offense is getting healthy.” — R.J. Kraft, staff editor
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What they said
“Doug Pederson is under the most pressure; Jaguars ownership publicly set expectations so high entering the season.” — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer
“It might already be unsalvageable in Dallas, but there’s no way Jerry Jones can turn back to Mike McCarthy if this thing goes further off the rails.” — Jim Ayello, senior editor
“You just don’t bench a 22-year-old quarterback who was the fourth overall pick for his 39-year-old backup if you aren’t all-in on this year.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Sam Hodde / Getty Images, Patrick McDermott / Getty Images, Cooper Neill / Getty Images)