Early box office projections for Kraven the Hunter‘s opening weekend are in, and it doesn’t look like the film will be one of the highest-grossing titles this holiday season. Right now, the movie is estimated to earn somewhere between $20-25 million domestically in its first three days, per Box Office Pro. While that figure would be higher than Madame Web‘s $15.3 million domestic debut from earlier this year, it would still rank near the bottom of Sony’s recent Marvel adaptations.
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If these projections hold, Kraven the Hunter‘s debut will be lower than Morbius ($39 million) and well behind any of the Venom installments. October’s Venom: The Last Dance opened with $51 million in the U.S.
Sony’s Spider-Man Universe franchise has not had a very lucrative 2024 thus far. Madame Web was a notorious flop, grossing only $100.4 million worldwide against a production budget in the $80-100 million range. And while Venom: The Last Dance had a streak where it won three straight weekends at the box office, that was more a byproduct of it facing minimal competition before the onslaught of holiday season releases. The threequel is the lowest-grossing entry in the Venom series, indicating Sony’s takes on these characters do not have much widespread appeal.
[Related: Kraven the Hunter Director Addresses Whether Spider-Man Universe Stumbles Are Impacting the Film]
The team behind Kraven the Hunter is aware of the reception towards Sony’s Spider-Man Universe, but are encouraging moviegoers to give the film a chance. Director J.C. Chandor and star Aaron Taylor-Johnson have talked about how the seminal “Kraven’s Last Hunt” storyline served as a primary source of inspiration as they looked to craft a compelling story and exploration of the character.
Kraven the Hunter doesn’t open in theaters until December 13th, so it’s entirely possible these projections will fluctuate as that release date gets closer. If the film is well-received and has decent word-of-mouth, then it could exceed the early estimates and post a decent haul. Admittedly, Sony’s track record with these Marvel movies leaves something to be desired, but Chandor is a talented filmmaker who’s directed critical darlings such as A Most Violent Year and All is Lost. Triple Frontier, the action movie he made for Netflix, also earned generally positive reviews, illustrating his ability to handle genre work.
How Kraven the Hunter fares at the box office will also depend on how the high-profile holdovers perform. Wicked and Gladiator II are off to strong starts, and Moana 2 should be a massive hit over the extended Thanksgiving weekend. If all three of those films have legs, Kraven the Hunter might find itself getting lost in the shuffle even before it has to go up against Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King. Being an R-rated action movie helps Kraven stand out as a counter-programming option, but that demographic may get their fill with Gladiator II.