CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors on Tuesday that he doesn’t think all the buzz about a recession being just around the corner holds much weight.
Looking at major earnings reports that have come out so far, Cramer said several players in key sectors — including homebuilding, banking, and travel and leisure — show that a recession might not be as inevitable as some may think.
“Those who cling to the notion that we’re about to enter recession must find all of these examples daunting, if not depressing,” Cramer said. “But earnings season has shown the recession thesis just doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny, even if so many so-called experts tell us otherwise.”
Cramer said homebuilders should have been hit hardest by the Federal Reserve’s tightening, but instead performed well due to the housing shortage. He then pointed to airlines, which he called part of a “roaring bull market,” as another indicator that the recession might not come. Cramer also noted that PepsiCo hasn’t seen a trade-down even as it has raised its prices.
“Suffice it to say, you’re not supposed to get this kind of action at this point in a rate hike cycle,” Cramer said. “When the Fed tightens, we expect it to crush the commerce and that just hasn’t really happened.”
Cramer said many of the company’s top banks — including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley — reported great quarters, but Bank of America, whose revenue topped expectations, was especially notable. This banking boom, according to Cramer, wouldn’t be possible unless consumers were flush with cash.
“If the bears were right about the inevitable recession, it’d be the opposite: a strapped consumer, out of cash and hanging on by her fingertips,” he said. “Defaults are minimal, including defaults in the dreaded commercial real estate space, which I keep telling you was a well overdone crisis.”